Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T00:44:23+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
0F 0x0f70…123d sports 191 markets active 1h ago coverage 223d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$4,772 (-8%) realized −$4,772 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -11% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -20% what you keep after slip
Net edge-20%after slip
Net WR37%break-even
Win rate39%74W / 117L
Whale WR64%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$308per market
Trades / day2.6pace
Fees−$706est.
Kalshi-fit93%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$344
7 days−$320
14 days−$10,843
30 days−$9,635
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 97% −$4,528
other 3% −$741
world 0% −$6
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +37%
net ROI/market (all)-19.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 57 -0.3% -9.8% 35% 33% -12.5%
≤30d 158 -29.9% -36.6% 29% 27% -28.4%
≤90d 162 -23.4% -30.7% 31% 29% -25.8%
all 191 -11.1% -19.6% 39% 37% -17.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.6 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -19.6% 37% -17.7%
10% -27.3% 34% -25.5%
15% -34.3% 31% -32.7%
20% -40.7% 27% -39.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 7% · top 2 14% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -18% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
4% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -11% · $-wt -9% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 64% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +13% → late -35% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
2.0 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$262 vs −$211 · ×1.24 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.79 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

223d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$4,772
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)39%
Wins / losses74 / 117
Whale WR (big bets)64%
Est. fees paid−$706
Open positions0
Markets (closed)191 / 191
History coverage223d
Avg bet$308
Trades / day2.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit93%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 191 Trades
no open positions (4 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 5.5 Jun 18 $151 −$76 -51%
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 3.5 Jun 18 $0 $0 -97%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $73 $0 +0%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs Jun 18 $114 −$112 -98%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $101 −$99 -98%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z - Map 2 Winner Jun 18 $105 +$42 +40%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z - Map 1 Winner Jun 18 $15 −$9 -56%
LoL: Dplus KIA Challengers vs T1 Academy (BO5) - Asia Masters Playoffs Jun 18 $100 +$150 +149%
Cristiano Ronaldo: 2+ goals Jun 18 $100 −$100 -100%
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy - Game 4 Winner Jun 17 $139 −$39 -28%
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy (BO5) - Asia Masters Playo Jun 17 $101 −$101 -100%
Valorant: Team Vitality vs FUT Esports (BO3) - VCT Masters London Play Jun 16 $99 −$99 -100%
Spread: France (-1.5) Jun 16 $99 +$145 +146%
Exact Score: IR Iran 0 - 0 New Zealand? Jun 16 $6 −$6 -100%
Spread: Belgium (-1.5) Jun 15 $3 −$3 -100%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $83 −$83 -100%
Spain leading at halftime? Jun 15 $110 −$81 -73%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FUT Esports - Map 2 Winner Jun 15 $120 −$105 -88%
Valorant: XLG Gaming vs EDward Gaming - Map 2 Winner Jun 15 $305 +$33 +11%
Valorant: XLG Gaming vs EDward Gaming - Map 1 Winner Jun 15 $48 +$82 +170%
Will Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador end in a draw? Jun 15 $101 −$101 -100%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $101 −$101 -100%
Will Tunisia win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $107 −$104 -97%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo Jun 14 $427 −$427 -100%
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? Jun 14 $51 +$209 +413%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons - Map 1 Winner Jun 14 $100 −$100 -100%
Spread: Germany (-3.5) Jun 14 $118 −$118 -100%
LoL: Top Esports vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 3 Winner Jun 14 $372 −$372 -100%
LoL: Top Esports vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 2 Winner Jun 14 $173 −$173 -100%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI Jun 14 $248 +$332 +134%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 3 Winner Jun 14 $150 +$349 +233%
LoL: Top Esports vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 1 Winner Jun 14 $150 −$145 -97%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 2 Winner Jun 14 $165 +$334 +203%
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $103 −$103 -100%
LoL: Team Liquid vs Cloud9 - Game 1 Winner Jun 14 $205 −$205 -100%
Valorant: G2 Esports vs XLG Gaming (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playoffs Jun 14 $366 −$366 -100%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FURIA - Map 2 Winner Jun 13 $93 −$93 -100%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs 9z - Map 2 Winner Jun 13 $1,317 +$513 +39%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs 9z - Map 1 Winner Jun 13 $210 +$539 +257%
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Legacy - Map 2 Winner Jun 13 $93 +$207 +222%
Valorant: EDward Gaming vs FUT Esports (BO3) - VCT Masters London Play Jun 13 $562 +$227 +40%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage Jun 13 $67 −$67 -100%
Valorant: EDward Gaming vs FUT Esports - Map 2 Winner Jun 13 $300 −$300 -100%
LoL: Team WE vs Bilibili Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs Jun 13 $250 −$250 -100%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs TheMongolz (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Jun 13 $150 +$349 +233%
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Monte - Map 1 Winner Jun 13 $90 −$90 -100%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Spirit - Map 1 Winner Jun 13 $118 −$118 -100%
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 - Game 2 Winner Jun 13 $245 −$245 -100%
Counter-Strike: FUT Esports vs G2 - Map 1 Winner Jun 13 $114 −$114 -100%
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 - Game 3 Winner Jun 13 $427 −$427 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 5.5 BUY Under 39¢ $78 1h
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 0¢ $0 1h
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 5.5 SELL Over 44¢ $78 1h
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 5.5 BUY Over 40¢ $73 1h
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? SELL Yes 48¢ $73 1h
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 47¢ $73 4h
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs BUY 9z 32¢ $114 5h
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? BUY No 38¢ $101 5h
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z - Map 2 Winner SELL FURIA 49¢ $75 6h
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z - Map 2 Winner SELL FURIA 49¢ $20 6h
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z - Map 2 Winner SELL FURIA 49¢ $52 6h
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z - Map 2 Winner BUY FURIA 35¢ $14 6h
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z - Map 2 Winner BUY FURIA 35¢ $5 6h
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z - Map 2 Winner BUY FURIA 35¢ $84 6h
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z - Map 2 Winner BUY FURIA 35¢ $2 6h
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z - Map 1 Winner SELL FURIA 7¢ $7 6h
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z - Map 1 Winner BUY FURIA 15¢ $15 7h
LoL: Dplus KIA Challengers vs T1 Academy (BO5) - Asia Masters Playoffs BUY Dplus KIA Challengers 40¢ $16 15h
LoL: Dplus KIA Challengers vs T1 Academy (BO5) - Asia Masters Playoffs BUY Dplus KIA Challengers 40¢ $8 15h
LoL: Dplus KIA Challengers vs T1 Academy (BO5) - Asia Masters Playoffs BUY Dplus KIA Challengers 40¢ $13 15h
LoL: Dplus KIA Challengers vs T1 Academy (BO5) - Asia Masters Playoffs BUY Dplus KIA Challengers 40¢ $6 15h
LoL: Dplus KIA Challengers vs T1 Academy (BO5) - Asia Masters Playoffs BUY Dplus KIA Challengers 40¢ $32 15h
LoL: Dplus KIA Challengers vs T1 Academy (BO5) - Asia Masters Playoffs BUY Dplus KIA Challengers 40¢ $3 15h
LoL: Dplus KIA Challengers vs T1 Academy (BO5) - Asia Masters Playoffs BUY Dplus KIA Challengers 40¢ $22 15h
Cristiano Ronaldo: 2+ goals BUY Yes 20¢ $41 31h
Cristiano Ronaldo: 2+ goals BUY Yes 20¢ $19 31h
Cristiano Ronaldo: 2+ goals BUY Yes 20¢ $5 31h
Cristiano Ronaldo: 2+ goals BUY Yes 20¢ $5 31h
Cristiano Ronaldo: 2+ goals BUY Yes 20¢ $4 31h
Cristiano Ronaldo: 2+ goals BUY Yes 20¢ $5 31h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 708 history records