Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T05:25:52+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
0F 0x0f7b…b82e sports 16 markets active 1h ago coverage 1d
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable sports specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real✗ net negative once open positions are counted! high turnover! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$2 (-1%) realized +$35 · open −$37
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +18% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -2% what you keep after slip
Net edge-2%after slip
Net WR62%break-even
Win rate62%8W / 5L
Drawdown78%max
Avg bet$14per market
Trades / day18.9pace
Fees−$3est.
Kalshi-fit88%portable
Net worth$1now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 81% +$52
other 13% −$29
crypto 5% −$12
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +62%
net ROI/market (all)+6.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 13 +17.8% +6.6% 62% 62% +13.9%
≤30d 13 +17.8% +6.6% 62% 62% +13.9%
≤90d 13 +17.8% +6.6% 62% 62% +13.9%
all 13 +17.8% +6.6% 62% 62% +13.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover18.9 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +6.6% 62% +13.9%
10% -3.6% 62% +3.0%
15% -12.9% 62% -7.0%
20% -21.4% 62% -16.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 35% · top 2 46% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +26% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +18% · $-wt +26% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -13% → late +44% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$14 vs −$13 · ×1.08 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.73 per $1 lost it wins $1.73
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$1
Realized+$35
Unrealized−$37
Win rate (resolved)62%
Wins / losses8 / 5
Est. fees paid−$3
Open positions3
Markets (closed)13 / 16
History coverage1d
Avg bet$14
Trades / day18.9
Drawdown78%
Kalshi-fit88%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 13 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? No 31¢ 3¢ $10 $1 −$9 (-91%)
Spread: Minnesota Twins (-1.5) Arizona Diamondbacks 49¢ 2¢ $14 $0 −$14 (-97%)
Spread: Los Angeles Angels (-1.5) Athletics 49¢ 0¢ $14 $0 −$14 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 5 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Spread: Baltimore Orioles (-2.5) Jun 21 $26 +$40 +152%
Spread: Seattle Mariners (-1.5) Jun 21 $15 +$11 +74%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playo Jun 20 $10 +$13 +129%
Spread: Germany (-1.5) Jun 20 $19 +$12 +65%
Spread: New York Yankees (-1.5) Jun 20 $10 +$9 +89%
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Atlanta Braves Jun 20 $13 −$12 -98%
Spread: Chicago Cubs (-3.5) Jun 20 $13 −$12 -98%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs FURIA (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playo Jun 20 $15 +$10 +67%
Chicago White Sox vs. Detroit Tigers Jun 20 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $12 −$12 -98%
Spread: Los Angeles Angels (-2.5) Jun 20 $10 +$8 +79%
Spread: Los Angeles Dodgers (-3.5) Jun 20 $14 +$11 +76%
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $20 −$19 -99%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Spread: Baltimore Orioles (-2.5) BUY Los Angeles Dodgers 39¢ $26 1h
Spread: Seattle Mariners (-1.5) SELL Boston Red Sox 96¢ $27 1h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? BUY No 31¢ $10 2h
Spread: Minnesota Twins (-1.5) BUY Arizona Diamondbacks 49¢ $14 2h
Spread: Seattle Mariners (-1.5) BUY Boston Red Sox 54¢ $15 2h
Spread: Los Angeles Angels (-1.5) BUY Athletics 49¢ $14 2h
Spread: Germany (-1.5) BUY Côte dIvoire 60¢ $19 9h
Spread: New York Yankees (-1.5) SELL Cincinnati Reds 98¢ $19 9h
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Atlanta Braves BUY Milwaukee Brewers 45¢ $13 10h
Spread: Chicago Cubs (-3.5) BUY Chicago Cubs 45¢ $13 10h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playo BUY Team Falcons 43¢ $10 16h
Spread: New York Yankees (-1.5) BUY Cincinnati Reds 51¢ $10 16h
Chicago White Sox vs. Detroit Tigers BUY Chicago White Sox 45¢ $10 16h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? BUY No 44¢ $12 16h
Spread: Los Angeles Angels (-2.5) SELL Athletics 100¢ $17 24h
Spread: Los Angeles Dodgers (-3.5) SELL Baltimore Orioles 100¢ $25 24h
Spread: Los Angeles Angels (-2.5) BUY Athletics 55¢ $10 26h
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-19? BUY No 54¢ $20 26h
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs FURIA (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playo BUY FURIA 59¢ $15 26h
Spread: Los Angeles Dodgers (-3.5) BUY Baltimore Orioles 56¢ $14 26h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1.32 · official $1.32 (match) · 24 history records