Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T07:42:46+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
0F 0x0f7f…b7bf crypto 33 markets active 1h ago coverage 92d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge⚠ Wins small, loses big
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! loses its big bets
Total PnL −$10 (-0%) realized −$10 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -9% what you keep after slip
Net edge-9%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate62%20W / 12L
Whale WR17%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$210per market
Trades / day0.7pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit85%portable
Net worth$12now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days+$0
30 days+$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 36% −$9
politics 30% $0
sports 17% $0
culture 13% −$1
tech 2% $0
crypto 2% +$1
world 0% $0
weather 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d 3 +0.1% -9.4% 100% 0% -9.4%
≤90d 20 +0.2% -9.3% 85% 0% -9.5%
all 32 +0.1% -9.4% 62% 0% -9.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.7 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.4% 0% -9.7%
10% -18.1% 0% -18.3%
15% -26.0% 0% -26.2%
20% -33.2% 0% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 72% · top 2 76% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 17% (≥$500) wins small, loses big bets
Persistence
early +0% → late +0% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$2 · ×0.09 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.26 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

92d coverage
Net worth$12
Realized−$10
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)62%
Wins / losses20 / 12
Whale WR (big bets)17%
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions1
Markets (closed)32 / 33
History coverage92d
Avg bet$210
Trades / day0.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit85%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 32 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by June 15? No 100¢ 100¢ $12 $12 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on June 5? Jun 07 $6 $0 +0%
Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31? Jun 05 $13 $0 +0%
Will Procreate Pocket be #1 Paid App in the US Apple App Store on May May 27 $9 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 8:00PM-12:00AM ET May 11 $14 $0 +1%
Solana Up or Down - May 4, 12:00AM-4:00AM ET May 05 $13 $0 +0%
Bitcoin above 77,200 on April 18, 10PM ET? May 04 $20 $0 +0%
Dogecoin Up or Down - April 17, 3AM ET Apr 19 $6 $0 +0%
Bitcoin above 73,400 on April 17, 5AM ET? Apr 19 $13 $0 +0%
Will OpenAI be acquired before 2027? Apr 17 $125 $0 +0%
Will the US strike 11 countries in 2026? Apr 17 $167 $0 -0%
Will the Anaheim Ducks win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? Apr 17 $315 $0 -0%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 12°C on April 17? Apr 17 $6 $0 +0%
Ethereum Up or Down - April 16, 2AM ET Apr 16 $6 $0 +1%
Dogecoin Up or Down - April 16, 12:00AM-4:00AM ET Apr 16 $9 $0 +0%
Will Norman Powell win the 2025–2026 NBA Sixth Man of the Year? Apr 16 $162 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $78,000 on April 14? Apr 16 $7 $0 +0%
Ethereum Up or Down - April 14, 9PM ET Apr 16 $10 $0 +0%
Will the Dallas Stars win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? Apr 15 $157 $0 -0%
Ethereum Up or Down - April 14, 4AM ET Apr 15 $7 $0 +0%
Will Carolina Buhler advance from the 2026 California Governor primary Apr 14 $165 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 16, 10PM ET Mar 17 $8 $0 +1%
Any US state legislature votes on secession by June 30, 2026? Mar 17 $750 −$11 -1%
Will Brandon Jones advance from the 2026 California Governor primary e Mar 17 $593 $0 +0%
Will Mike Pence announce a presidential run before 2027? Mar 17 $616 $0 +0%
Will Steve Hershey win the 2026 Maryland Governor Republican primary e Mar 15 $481 $0 -0%
Will Bologna win the 2025-26 UEFA Europa League? Mar 15 $450 $0 -0%
Will Freiburg win the 2025-26 UEFA Europa League? Mar 15 $849 +$3 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 15, 1AM ET Mar 15 $9 $0 +1%
Will the Detroit Pistons win the 2026 NBA Finals? Mar 15 $530 $0 +0%
Will the International Court of Justice win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2 Mar 15 $868 −$1 -0%
Will Chad Bianco win the California Governor Election in 2026? Mar 15 $263 $0 +0%
Will the Seattle Kraken win the Western Conference? Mar 15 $282 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by June 15? BUY No 100¢ $12 1h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on June 5? BUY No 100¢ $6 10d
Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31? BUY No 100¢ $13 19d
Will Procreate Pocket be #1 Paid App in the US Apple App Store on May BUY No 100¢ $9 27d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 8:00PM-12:00AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $14 38d
Solana Up or Down - May 4, 12:00AM-4:00AM ET BUY Down 100¢ $13 41d
Bitcoin above 77,200 on April 18, 10PM ET? BUY No 100¢ $20 57d
Bitcoin above 73,400 on April 17, 5AM ET? BUY Yes 100¢ $13 58d
Will OpenAI be acquired before 2027? BUY Yes 8¢ $10 58d
Will OpenAI be acquired before 2027? BUY No 92¢ $115 58d
Dogecoin Up or Down - April 17, 3AM ET BUY Up 100¢ $6 58d
Will the US strike 11 countries in 2026? SELL No 96¢ $33 59d
Will the US strike 11 countries in 2026? SELL No 96¢ $133 59d
Will the US strike 11 countries in 2026? BUY No 97¢ $167 59d
Will the Anaheim Ducks win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? SELL Yes 2¢ $2 59d
Will the Anaheim Ducks win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? SELL No 99¢ $150 59d
Dogecoin Up or Down - April 16, 12:00AM-4:00AM ET BUY Down 100¢ $9 59d
Will Norman Powell win the 2025–2026 NBA Sixth Man of the Year? SELL Yes 1¢ $1 60d
Will Norman Powell win the 2025–2026 NBA Sixth Man of the Year? SELL No 99¢ $161 60d
Ethereum Up or Down - April 16, 2AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $6 60d
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 12°C on April 17? BUY No 100¢ $6 60d
Will the Dallas Stars win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? SELL Yes 7¢ $8 61d
Will the Dallas Stars win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? SELL Yes 7¢ $3 61d
Will the Dallas Stars win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? SELL No 93¢ $41 61d
Will the Dallas Stars win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? SELL No 93¢ $6 61d
Will the Dallas Stars win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? SELL No 93¢ $99 61d
Ethereum Up or Down - April 14, 9PM ET BUY Up 100¢ $10 61d
Will the Anaheim Ducks win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? SELL No 98¢ $163 61d
Will the Anaheim Ducks win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? BUY No 98¢ $163 61d
Will Bitcoin reach $78,000 on April 14? BUY No 100¢ $7 61d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $12.10 · official $12.10 (match) · 91 history records