Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T12:38:47+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
0F 0x0f80…3fa6 crypto 14 markets active 2h ago coverage 3d
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ only 3d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL +$179 (+38%) realized +$179 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -16% what you keep after slip
Net edge-16%after slip
Net WR50%break-even
Win rate50%7W / 7L
Drawdown18%max
Avg bet$33per market
Trades / day10.3pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit71%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 3d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 53% +$168
crypto 45% +$11
sports 2% −$8
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +50%
net ROI/market (all)-9.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 14 +0.6% -9.0% 50% 50% +23.8%
≤30d 14 +0.6% -9.0% 50% 50% +23.8%
≤90d 14 +0.6% -9.0% 50% 50% +23.8%
all 14 +0.6% -9.0% 50% 50% +23.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover10.3 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.0% 50% +23.8%
10% -17.7% 50% +11.9%
15% -25.6% 50% +1.1%
20% -32.9% 21% -8.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 31% · top 2 52% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +37% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +1% · $-wt +37% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +13% → late -12% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$31 vs −$7 · ×4.47 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×4.47 per $1 lost it wins $4.47
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

3d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$179
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)50%
Wins / losses7 / 7
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions0
Markets (closed)14 / 14
History coverage3d
Avg bet$33
Trades / day10.3
Drawdown18%
Kalshi-fit71%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 14 Trades
no open positions (4 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET Jun 23 $5 −$4 -81%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET Jun 23 $52 +$24 +46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET Jun 23 $51 +$23 +44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET Jun 23 $26 −$25 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET Jun 23 $5 −$5 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET Jun 23 $30 −$1 -5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET Jun 23 $5 +$6 +114%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET Jun 23 $5 −$5 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET Jun 23 $30 −$1 -2%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $36 +$46 +129%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $61 +$29 +48%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $50 +$24 +48%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $101 +$69 +69%
Will Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire end in a draw? Jun 20 $8 −$8 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET SELL Down 8¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET BUY Down 38¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET BUY Down 55¢ $26 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET SELL Up 60¢ $30 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET BUY Up 49¢ $26 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET SELL Down 99¢ $74 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET BUY Down 67¢ $51 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET BUY Down 54¢ $26 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET BUY Up 47¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET SELL Up 99¢ $27 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET BUY Up 92¢ $25 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET SELL Down 21¢ $2 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET BUY Down 49¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET BUY Up 50¢ $5 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET BUY Up 45¢ $5 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET BUY Up 89¢ $25 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET SELL Down 20¢ $2 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET BUY Down 56¢ $5 3h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? SELL Yes 100¢ $89 17h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 67¢ $61 19h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 43¢ $36 2d
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? SELL Yes 100¢ $75 2d
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 67¢ $50 2d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? SELL Yes 100¢ $171 2d
Will Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire end in a draw? BUY Yes 31¢ $8 2d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 39¢ $20 2d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 67¢ $40 2d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 67¢ $40 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 35 history records