Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T05:08:41+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
0F 0x0f81…8d29 crypto 1260 markets active 0h ago coverage 36d
BOTnot copyable crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ bot/MM pace (50 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$97 (-3%) realized −$97 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -26% what you keep after slip
Net edge-26%after slip
Net WR33%break-even
Win rate62%786W / 473L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$2per market
Trades / day50.4pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit94%portable
Net worth$1now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$53
7 days−$93
14 days−$97
30 days−$103
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 81% −$112
other 7% −$28
weather 4% +$5
sports 3% −$9
world 2% +$2
politics 1% −$3
economics 0% $0
culture 0% $0
tech 0% −$1
finance 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (50 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +33%
net ROI/market (all)-13.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 537 -6.1% -15.0% 59% 57% -15.6%
≤30d 970 -3.7% -12.9% 63% 36% -13.5%
≤90d 1259 -4.5% -13.6% 62% 33% -13.9%
all 1259 -4.5% -13.6% 62% 33% -13.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover50.4 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -13.6% 33% -13.9%
10% ← realistic here -21.9% 29% -22.1%
15% -29.4% 24% -29.7%
20% -36.3% 17% -36.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 6% · top 2 8% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -5% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
47% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -5% · $-wt -5% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -4% → late -5% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$2 · ×0.51 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.85 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

36d coverage
Net worth$1
Realized−$97
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)62%
Wins / losses786 / 473
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions1
Markets (closed)1259 / 1260
History coverage36d
Avg bet$2
Trades / day50.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit94%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 1259 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET Up 65¢ 62¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-4%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 260 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET Jun 15 $3 +$1 +46%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET Jun 15 $3 +$2 +60%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET Jun 15 $2 +$1 +50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET Jun 15 $2 +$1 +40%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET Jun 15 $3 −$3 -97%
XRP Up or Down - June 15, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET Jun 15 $3 −$3 -98%
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET Jun 15 $3 +$2 +50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET Jun 15 $3 −$3 -98%
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 12:40AM-12:45AM ET Jun 15 $2 +$1 +48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:40AM-12:45AM ET Jun 15 $2 +$1 +40%
XRP Up or Down - June 15, 12:40AM-12:45AM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -97%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:35AM-12:40AM ET Jun 15 $2 +$1 +57%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 12:35AM-12:40AM ET Jun 15 $2 $0 +31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:35AM-12:40AM ET Jun 15 $3 +$1 +46%
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 12:30AM-12:35AM ET Jun 15 $2 +$1 +52%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 12:25AM-12:30AM ET Jun 15 $2 $0 +22%
XRP Up or Down - June 15, 12:20AM-12:25AM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:20AM-12:25AM ET Jun 15 $2 +$1 +40%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 12:15AM-12:20AM ET Jun 15 $2 −$1 -97%
XRP Up or Down - June 15, 12:10AM-12:15AM ET Jun 15 $2 +$1 +42%
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 12:10AM-12:15AM ET Jun 15 $2 +$1 +44%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:05AM-12:10AM ET Jun 15 $2 +$2 +124%
XRP Up or Down - June 15, 12:00AM-12:05AM ET Jun 15 $2 −$1 -98%
BNB Up or Down - June 14, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET Jun 15 $2 −$1 -98%
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET Jun 15 $2 +$1 +40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET Jun 15 $2 +$1 +57%
BNB Up or Down - June 14, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET Jun 15 $2 +$1 +42%
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET Jun 15 $2 +$1 +34%
XRP Up or Down - June 14, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET Jun 15 $2 +$1 +36%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET Jun 15 $2 −$1 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -99%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET Jun 15 $2 −$1 -98%
XRP Up or Down - June 14, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET Jun 15 $2 −$1 -98%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:25PM-10:30PM ET Jun 15 $2 +$1 +46%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:20PM-10:25PM ET Jun 15 $2 +$1 +50%
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET Jun 15 $2 −$1 -98%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET Jun 15 $2 −$1 -98%
XRP Up or Down - June 14, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET Jun 15 $2 −$1 -99%
BNB Up or Down - June 14, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET Jun 15 $2 −$1 -98%
BNB Up or Down - June 14, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET Jun 15 $2 $0 +31%
XRP Up or Down - June 13, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET Jun 13 $3 −$3 -97%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET Jun 13 $3 −$3 -96%
Solana Up or Down - June 13, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET Jun 13 $3 −$3 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET Jun 13 $3 +$2 +60%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET Jun 13 $3 +$4 +124%
Solana Up or Down - June 13, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET Jun 13 $6 −$6 -94%
XRP Up or Down - June 13, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET Jun 13 $3 −$3 -96%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET Jun 13 $3 −$3 -97%
XRP Up or Down - June 13, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET Jun 13 $3 +$2 +79%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET Jun 13 $3 +$3 +97%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET BUY Up 65¢ $2 2m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET BUY Down 67¢ $2 6m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET BUY Down 67¢ $2 6m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET BUY Down 61¢ $2 10m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET BUY Down 61¢ $2 10m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET BUY Down 65¢ $2 12m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET BUY Up 60¢ $2 14m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET BUY Up 60¢ $2 14m
XRP Up or Down - June 15, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET BUY Up 65¢ $2 15m
XRP Up or Down - June 15, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET BUY Up 65¢ $2 15m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET BUY Down 70¢ $2 17m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET BUY Up 66¢ $2 20m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET BUY Up 69¢ $2 20m
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET BUY Up 65¢ $2 21m
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET BUY Up 65¢ $2 21m
XRP Up or Down - June 15, 12:40AM-12:45AM ET BUY Up 50¢ $2 27m
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 12:40AM-12:45AM ET BUY Down 66¢ $2 28m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:40AM-12:45AM ET BUY Down 70¢ $2 28m
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:35AM-12:40AM ET BUY Down 62¢ $2 31m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 12:35AM-12:40AM ET BUY Down 75¢ $2 32m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:35AM-12:40AM ET BUY Down 67¢ $2 32m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:35AM-12:40AM ET BUY Down 67¢ $2 32m
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 12:30AM-12:35AM ET BUY Down 64¢ $2 37m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 12:25AM-12:30AM ET BUY Down 81¢ $2 40m
XRP Up or Down - June 15, 12:20AM-12:25AM ET BUY Down 70¢ $2 44m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:20AM-12:25AM ET BUY Down 70¢ $2 46m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 12:15AM-12:20AM ET BUY Down 53¢ $2 52m
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 12:10AM-12:15AM ET BUY Down 68¢ $2 55m
XRP Up or Down - June 15, 12:10AM-12:15AM ET BUY Down 69¢ $2 57m
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:05AM-12:10AM ET BUY Up 43¢ $2 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1.44 · official $1.12 (match) · 2542 history records