Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T16:40:54+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
0F 0x0f86…76c0 politics 124 markets active 2h ago coverage 118d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$46 (-0%) realized −$46 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR4%break-even
Win rate7%9W / 113L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$257per market
Trades / day2.5pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit66%portable
Net worth$71now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$1
7 days−$1
14 days−$3
30 days−$4
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 44% −$15
politics 41% −$15
sports 6% −$18
crypto 3% −$1
economics 2% −$1
tech 2% −$1
world 1% $0
finance 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +4%
net ROI/market (all)-9.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 -0.1% -9.6% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤30d 10 -0.1% -9.6% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤90d 103 +1.0% -8.6% 4% 2% -9.5%
all 122 -0.3% -9.8% 7% 4% -9.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.5 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.8% 4% -9.7%
10% -18.4% 4% -18.3%
15% -26.3% 3% -26.2%
20% -33.6% 3% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 37% · top 2 56% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
44% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -1% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$13 vs −$1 · ×8.85 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.71 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

118d coverage
Net worth$71
Realized−$46
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)7%
Wins / losses9 / 113
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions2
Markets (closed)122 / 124
History coverage118d
Avg bet$257
Trades / day2.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit66%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 122 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $6,000 by end of June? No 100¢ 100¢ $37 $37 −$0 (-0%)
Will Bitcoin dip to $47,500 in June? No 99¢ 99¢ $34 $34 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 8 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Katie Britt win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 24 $510 −$1 -0%
Will Lucy Powell be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in 2 Jun 21 $23 $0 -0%
Will Helder Barbalho win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 15 $46 $0 -0%
Will Mark Cuban win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 14 $434 $0 -0%
Will Bosnia-Herzegovina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 14 $754 −$1 -0%
Will Laurent Wauquiez win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 12 $518 −$1 -0%
Will Nico Hülkenberg be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 08 $33 $0 -0%
Will Pierre Gasly be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 07 $237 $0 -0%
Will the Los Angeles Angels win the 2026 World Series? May 31 $34 $0 -0%
Will Tom Brady win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 29 $405 −$1 -0%
Will Oprah Winfrey win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 25 $187 $0 -0%
Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 23 $448 −$1 -0%
Will the Tennessee Titans win the 2027 NFL league championship? May 22 $189 $0 -0%
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 me May 20 $214 $0 -0%
Will Clémentine Autain win the 2027 French presidential election? May 19 $217 $0 -0%
Will Qatar win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 18 $493 −$1 -0%
Will Joe Kent win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 17 $251 $0 -0%
Will Jordan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 17 $447 $0 -0%
Will Esteban Ocon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 17 $453 −$1 -0%
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 14 $248 $0 -0%
Will Iraq win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 13 $203 $0 -0%
Will Tony Thurmond win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 12 $251 $0 -0%
Will Tunisia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 12 $278 $0 -0%
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 11 $190 $0 -0%
Will Roy Cooper win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 10 $195 $0 -0%
Will Fabien Roussel win the 2027 French presidential election? May 10 $482 −$1 -0%
Will Ahn Cheol-soo win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election May 07 $263 $0 -0%
Will Ron DeSantis win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 06 $252 −$1 -0%
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 05 $234 $0 -0%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $50 in April? May 05 $40 $0 +0%
Will the Las Vegas Raiders win the 2027 NFL league championship? May 03 $221 $0 -0%
Will Michelle Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? May 03 $222 $0 -0%
Will Eduardo Leite win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? May 02 $412 $0 -0%
Will Liam Lawson be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 01 $763 −$1 -0%
Will Reilly Opelka win the 2026 Men's French Open? Apr 30 $199 $0 -0%
Will Michelle Obama win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 28 $224 $0 -0%
Will Cho Eun-hee win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Apr 27 $535 −$1 -0%
Will Leo Zacky win the California Governor Election in 2026? Apr 27 $238 $0 -0%
Will Latvia win Eurovision 2026? Apr 26 $693 −$1 -0%
Will Gabriel Bortoleto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 26 $211 $0 -0%
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 24 $277 $0 -0%
Will Estonia win Eurovision 2026? Apr 24 $227 $0 -0%
Will Daniel Mercuri win the California Governor Election in 2026? Apr 22 $214 $0 -0%
Will François Ruffin win the 2027 French presidential election? Apr 22 $228 $0 -0%
Will Australia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 22 $576 −$1 -0%
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 21 $279 $0 -0%
Will Nikki Haley win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 20 $501 −$1 -0%
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 20 $200 $0 -0%
Will Robert F. Kennedy Jr. win the 2028 Republican presidential nomina Apr 20 $260 $0 -0%
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 20 $223 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Bitcoin dip to $47,500 in June? BUY No 99¢ $34 1h
Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $6,000 by end of June? BUY No 100¢ $37 1h
Will Katie Britt win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $41 1h
Will Katie Britt win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $41 2d
Will Lucy Powell be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in 2 SELL No 100¢ $23 3d
Will Lucy Powell be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in 2 BUY No 100¢ $23 3d
Will Helder Barbalho win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL No 100¢ $46 9d
Will Helder Barbalho win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY No 100¢ $46 9d
Will Mark Cuban win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $33 10d
Will Mark Cuban win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $33 10d
Will Bosnia-Herzegovina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $31 10d
Will Bosnia-Herzegovina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $31 10d
Will Laurent Wauquiez win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $31 12d
Will Laurent Wauquiez win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $31 13d
Will Nico Hülkenberg be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $33 16d
Will Nico Hülkenberg be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $33 16d
Will Pierre Gasly be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $35 17d
Will Pierre Gasly be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $35 24d
Will the Los Angeles Angels win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 99¢ $34 24d
Will the Los Angeles Angels win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 99¢ $34 25d
Will Tom Brady win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $239 25d
Will Tom Brady win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $239 30d
Will Oprah Winfrey win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $187 30d
Will Oprah Winfrey win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $187 32d
Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $248 32d
Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $248 32d
Will the Tennessee Titans win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 99¢ $189 33d
Will the Tennessee Titans win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 99¢ $189 34d
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 me SELL No 100¢ $214 34d
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 me BUY No 99¢ $214 35d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $70.96 · official $70.96 (match) · 357 history records