Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T00:39:06+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
0F 0x0f87…5b22 crypto 114 markets active 1h ago coverage 5d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
Total PnL −$84 (-13%) realized −$111 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -17% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -36% what you keep after slip
Net edge-36%after slip
Net WR33%break-even
Win rate45%51W / 63L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$6per market
Trades / day95.7pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 5d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$111
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +33%
net ROI/market (all)-25.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 114 -17.3% -25.2% 45% 33% -25.3%
≤30d 114 -17.3% -25.2% 45% 33% -25.3%
≤90d 114 -17.3% -25.2% 45% 33% -25.3%
all 114 -17.3% -25.2% 45% 33% -25.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover95.7 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -25.2% 33% -25.3%
10% ← realistic here -32.3% 27% -32.5%
15% -38.9% 18% -39.0%
20% -44.8% 13% -45.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 8% · top 2 15% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -18% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
24% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -17% · $-wt -18% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -25% → late -9% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
3.6 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$3 · ×0.54 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.44 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

5d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$111
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)45%
Wins / losses51 / 63
Open positions0
Markets (closed)114 / 114
History coverage5d
Avg bet$6
Trades / day95.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 114 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET Up 50¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET Up 73¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET Down 8¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET Up 57¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET Down 31¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET Down 15¢ 0¢ $4 $0 −$4 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET Down 49¢ 0¢ $4 $0 −$4 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET Down 38¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET Down 2¢ 0¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET Down 5¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET Down 3¢ 0¢ $4 $0 −$4 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET Down 21¢ 0¢ $4 $0 −$4 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET Up 46¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET Up 50¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET Down 63¢ 0¢ $4 $0 −$4 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET Up 18¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET Down 72¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
XRP Up or Down - June 14, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET Down 66¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:40PM-7:45PM ET Up 53¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET Down 50¢ 0¢ $4 $0 −$4 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET Up 48¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET Down 53¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET Down 12¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET Up 48¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET Down 83¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:50PM-7:55PM ET Jun 14 $2 −$1 -35%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:40PM-7:45PM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -97%
XRP Up or Down - June 14, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET Jun 14 $2 −$2 -98%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:25PM-7:30PM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET Jun 14 $1 $0 +36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET Jun 14 $1 +$1 +57%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET Jun 14 $1 +$1 +134%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET Jun 11 $14 −$11 -77%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET Jun 11 $4 +$1 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET Jun 11 $3 −$2 -54%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET Jun 11 $4 −$1 -20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET Jun 11 $9 −$6 -62%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET Jun 11 $8 +$1 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET Jun 11 $10 −$1 -8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET Jun 11 $15 −$6 -37%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET Jun 11 $11 +$1 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET Jun 11 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET Jun 11 $6 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET Jun 11 $13 +$1 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET Jun 11 $3 −$1 -21%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET Jun 11 $4 −$4 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET Jun 11 $3 +$2 +70%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET Jun 11 $2 +$3 +167%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET Jun 11 $3 $0 -11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET Jun 11 $4 $0 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET Jun 11 $4 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET Jun 11 $5 $0 -9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET Jun 11 $7 +$2 +27%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET Jun 11 $7 $0 -4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET Jun 11 $4 +$1 +34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET Jun 11 $3 $0 -5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET Jun 11 $3 $0 -1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET Jun 11 $9 +$1 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET Jun 11 $5 −$5 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET Jun 11 $6 −$6 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET Jun 11 $6 +$1 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET Jun 11 $1 +$1 +124%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET Jun 11 $1 $0 +24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET Jun 11 $1 +$2 +218%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET Jun 11 $6 −$1 -18%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET Jun 11 $6 +$1 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET Jun 11 $14 −$9 -60%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET Jun 11 $4 +$1 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET Jun 11 $4 $0 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET Jun 11 $8 −$1 -18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET Jun 11 $6 −$6 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET Jun 11 $4 $0 +9%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:50PM-7:55PM ET BUY Down 22¢ $1 46m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:50PM-7:55PM ET BUY Up 74¢ $1 46m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:40PM-7:45PM ET BUY Up 53¢ $1 56m
XRP Up or Down - June 14, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET BUY Down 66¢ $2 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET BUY Down 83¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET BUY Up 48¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:25PM-7:30PM ET BUY Down 7¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET BUY Down 72¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET BUY Down 62¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET BUY Up 57¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET BUY Up 41¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET BUY Down 86¢ $1 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET SELL Up 10¢ $1 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET BUY Down 82¢ $2 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET BUY Up 20¢ $1 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET BUY Down 77¢ $2 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET BUY Down 81¢ $2 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET BUY Down 77¢ $2 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET BUY Down 83¢ $2 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET BUY Up 28¢ $2 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET BUY Up 28¢ $2 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET BUY Down 39¢ $2 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET BUY Up 70¢ $1 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET BUY Down 27¢ $1 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET BUY Down 49¢ $1 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET BUY Down 1¢ $1 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET BUY Down 50¢ $2 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET BUY Up 30¢ $1 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET BUY Up 89¢ $1 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET BUY Up 86¢ $1 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 558 history records