Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T20:34:53+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
0F 0x0f89…2140 other 12 markets active 1h ago coverage 2d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ only 2d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$6 (-2%) realized −$3 · open −$3
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -52% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -60% what you keep after slip
Net edge-60%after slip
Net WR40%break-even
Win rate40%2W / 3L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$20per market
Trades / day13.8pace
Kalshi-fit8%portable
Net worth$187now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 2d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 78% −$8
world 22% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +40%
net ROI/market (all)-56.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 5 -51.7% -56.3% 40% 40% -19.2%
≤30d 5 -51.7% -56.3% 40% 40% -19.2%
≤90d 5 -51.7% -56.3% 40% 40% -19.2%
all 5 -51.7% -56.3% 40% 40% -19.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover13.8 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -56.3% 40% -19.2%
10% -60.5% 20% -27.0%
15% -64.3% 0% -34.0%
20% -67.8% 0% -40.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 81% · top 2 100% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -11% too few recent
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -52% · $-wt -11% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.8 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$4 vs −$5 · ×0.91 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.6 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

2d coverage
Net worth$187
Realized−$3
Unrealized−$3
Win rate (resolved)40%
Wins / losses2 / 3
Open positions7
Markets (closed)5 / 12
History coverage2d
Avg bet$20
Trades / day13.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit8%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 7 History 5 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Exact Score: Saudi Arabia 1 - 0 Uruguay? No 95¢ 95¢ $81 $81 −$0 (-0%)
Exact Score: IR Iran 2 - 2 New Zealand? No 96¢ 96¢ $54 $54 −$0 (-0%)
Exact Score: Saudi Arabia 0 - 0 Uruguay? No 91¢ 91¢ $27 $27 +$0 (+0%)
Exact Score: Belgium 2 - 0 Egypt? No 87¢ 100¢ $11 $13 +$2 (+15%)
Exact Score: Belgium 1 - 2 Egypt? Yes 5¢ 10¢ $3 $6 +$3 (+121%)
Exact Score: Belgium 2 - 1 Egypt? Yes 12¢ 13¢ $4 $4 +$0 (+8%)
Exact Score: Belgium 3 - 1 Egypt? Yes 7¢ 4¢ $2 $1 −$1 (-46%)
Exact Score: Belgium 2 - 0 Egypt? Yes 13¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 3 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Exact Score: Spain 2 - 0 Cabo Verde? Jun 15 $9 +$2 +17%
Cabo Verde leading at halftime? Jun 15 $5 −$5 -97%
Exact Score: Sweden 3 - 1 Tunisia? Jun 15 $4 −$4 -98%
Exact Score: Sweden 2 - 0 Tunisia? Jun 15 $6 −$5 -98%
Germany leading at halftime? Jun 14 $28 +$7 +24%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Exact Score: IR Iran 2 - 2 New Zealand? BUY No 96¢ $27 1h
Exact Score: Belgium 2 - 0 Egypt? BUY Yes 14¢ $2 1h
Exact Score: IR Iran 2 - 2 New Zealand? BUY No 96¢ $27 1h
Exact Score: Belgium 2 - 0 Egypt? BUY Yes 13¢ $1 1h
Exact Score: Belgium 1 - 2 Egypt? BUY Yes 5¢ $1 1h
Exact Score: Belgium 2 - 0 Egypt? BUY Yes 13¢ $2 1h
Exact Score: Belgium 3 - 1 Egypt? BUY Yes 7¢ $2 1h
Exact Score: Belgium 1 - 2 Egypt? BUY Yes 5¢ $1 1h
Exact Score: Belgium 2 - 0 Egypt? BUY No 87¢ $11 2h
Exact Score: Spain 2 - 0 Cabo Verde? BUY No 85¢ $9 4h
Exact Score: Saudi Arabia 1 - 0 Uruguay? BUY No 96¢ $27 5h
Exact Score: Saudi Arabia 1 - 0 Uruguay? BUY No 96¢ $27 5h
Exact Score: Saudi Arabia 0 - 0 Uruguay? BUY No 91¢ $27 10h
Exact Score: Saudi Arabia 1 - 0 Uruguay? BUY No 94¢ $28 12h
Cabo Verde leading at halftime? BUY Yes 4¢ $1 15h
Exact Score: Belgium 2 - 1 Egypt? BUY Yes 12¢ $4 15h
Cabo Verde leading at halftime? BUY Yes 4¢ $1 16h
Cabo Verde leading at halftime? BUY Yes 4¢ $1 16h
Cabo Verde leading at halftime? BUY Yes 4¢ $1 16h
Exact Score: Sweden 3 - 1 Tunisia? BUY Yes 22¢ $4 17h
Exact Score: Sweden 2 - 0 Tunisia? BUY Yes 15¢ $6 18h
Germany leading at halftime? BUY Yes 80¢ $28 39h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $187.05 · official $187.05 (match) · 24 history records