Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T19:44:50+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
0F 0x0f8a…2ec8 crypto 1215 markets active 1h ago coverage 61d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$703 (+5%) realized +$703 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -23% what you keep after slip
Net edge-23%after slip
Net WR48%break-even
Win rate50%605W / 609L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$12per market
Trades / day25.0pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$71
7 days+$224
14 days+$724
30 days+$865
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% +$274
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +48%
net ROI/market (all)-9.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 130 +8.3% -2.0% 51% 51% -3.2%
≤30d 548 +12.9% +2.2% 56% 55% +1.5%
≤90d 1214 -0.0% -9.5% 50% 48% -7.8%
all 1214 -0.0% -9.5% 50% 48% -7.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover25.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -9.5% 48% -7.8%
10% ← realistic here -18.2% 47% -16.6%
15% -26.1% 45% -24.7%
20% -33.3% 43% -32.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 3% · top 2 5% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
2% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt +2% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -9% → late +9% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$11 vs −$10 · ×1.05 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.04 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

61d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$703
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)50%
Wins / losses605 / 609
Open positions0
Markets (closed)1214 / 1215
History coverage61d
Avg bet$12
Trades / day25.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 1214 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET Jun 17 $89 +$21 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET Jun 17 $29 −$29 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET Jun 17 $30 −$30 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET Jun 17 $30 +$29 +97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET Jun 17 $30 +$26 +86%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET Jun 17 $30 +$33 +110%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET Jun 17 $59 −$14 -24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET Jun 17 $30 +$32 +106%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET Jun 17 $30 +$30 +101%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET Jun 17 $30 +$24 +81%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET Jun 17 $59 −$14 -24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET Jun 17 $30 −$30 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET Jun 17 $30 −$30 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET Jun 17 $30 −$30 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:40PM-7:45PM ET Jun 17 $31 −$31 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET Jun 17 $30 −$30 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:55PM-8:00PM ET Jun 17 $30 +$41 +136%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET Jun 16 $30 +$28 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET Jun 16 $29 +$10 +35%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET Jun 16 $30 +$24 +82%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET Jun 16 $30 −$30 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET Jun 16 $30 +$20 +67%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET Jun 16 $30 −$30 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET Jun 16 $30 +$48 +159%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET Jun 16 $30 +$17 +56%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET Jun 16 $30 −$30 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET Jun 16 $30 +$25 +83%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET Jun 16 $30 +$18 +62%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET Jun 16 $20 −$20 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET Jun 16 $20 −$20 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET Jun 15 $20 +$14 +73%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET Jun 15 $20 +$26 +129%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET Jun 15 $20 +$10 +52%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET Jun 15 $20 +$9 +46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET Jun 15 $20 +$43 +212%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET Jun 15 $20 +$28 +142%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET Jun 15 $20 −$20 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET Jun 15 $20 +$24 +120%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET Jun 15 $20 −$20 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET Jun 15 $20 +$171 +839%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET Jun 15 $20 −$20 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET Jun 15 $20 +$12 +61%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET Jun 15 $20 +$32 +159%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:35AM-12:40AM ET Jun 15 $20 −$20 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:40AM-12:45AM ET Jun 15 $20 +$28 +140%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET Jun 15 $20 −$20 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET Jun 15 $20 +$20 +103%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET Jun 15 $20 +$24 +119%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET Jun 15 $20 −$20 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET Jun 14 $20 +$14 +68%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET BUY Down 54¢ $30 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET BUY Up 54¢ $30 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET BUY Down 51¢ $30 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET BUY Down 66¢ $29 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET BUY Up 55¢ $30 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET BUY Up 49¢ $30 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET BUY Down 52¢ $30 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET BUY Up 46¢ $30 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET BUY Up 64¢ $29 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET BUY Down 71¢ $29 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET BUY Up 47¢ $30 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET BUY Up 48¢ $30 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET BUY Up 53¢ $30 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET BUY Up 49¢ $30 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET BUY Down 64¢ $30 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET BUY Down 63¢ $30 10h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET BUY Up 37¢ $30 11h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET BUY Down 37¢ $30 18h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET BUY Up 42¢ $30 19h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:55PM-8:00PM ET BUY Up 41¢ $30 19h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:40PM-7:45PM ET BUY Up 6¢ $31 20h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET BUY Up 50¢ $30 28h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET BUY Down 72¢ $29 28h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET BUY Up 53¢ $30 29h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET BUY Up 47¢ $30 30h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET BUY Down 58¢ $30 32h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET BUY Up 51¢ $30 34h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET BUY Up 37¢ $30 34h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET BUY Up 62¢ $30 37h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET BUY Up 44¢ $30 38h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 2973 history records