Wallet analysis

2026-06-29T02:59:57+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score
0F 0x0f8d…01de sports 222 markets active 2h ago coverage 107d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$23,310 (-19%) realized −$23,589 · open +$279
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -9% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -27% what you keep after slip
Net edge-27%after slip
Net WR35%break-even
Win rate36%76W / 138L
Whale WR35%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$556per market
Trades / day8.2pace
Fees−$1,458est.
Kalshi-fit95%portable
Net worth$948now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$61
7 days−$1,509
14 days−$2,778
30 days−$2,143
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 63% −$6,998
world 31% −$15,345
other 3% +$72
crypto 3% −$168
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +35%
net ROI/market (all)-17.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 12 +1.9% -7.8% 25% 25% -27.5%
≤30d 93 +0.9% -8.7% 37% 35% -15.6%
≤90d 185 -8.6% -17.3% 35% 34% -30.3%
all 214 -9.2% -17.9% 36% 35% -26.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover8.2 tr/day
realistic slip~11%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -17.9% 35% -26.6%
10% ← realistic here -25.7% 33% -33.6%
15% -32.9% 30% -40.0%
20% -39.5% 29% -45.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 7% · top 2 15% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -23% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
3% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -9% · $-wt -19% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 35% (≥$533) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -13% → late -5% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
3.3 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$390 vs −$379 · ×1.03 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.57 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

107d coverage
Net worth$948
Realized−$23,589
Unrealized+$279
Win rate (resolved)36%
Wins / losses76 / 138
Whale WR (big bets)35%
Est. fees paid−$1,458
Open positions1
Markets (closed)214 / 222
History coverage107d
Avg bet$556
Trades / day8.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit95%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 214 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Qatar by September 30, 2026? Yes 30¢ 42¢ $669 $948 +$279 (+42%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 31 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 8:00PM-12:00AM ET Jun 29 $211 +$235 +111%
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 28? Jun 28 $160 −$46 -29%
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 29? Jun 27 $570 −$134 -24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 12AM ET Jun 27 $108 +$160 +149%
Will South Korea advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Jun 27 $696 −$276 -40%
Will 60 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 Jun 27 $445 +$251 +56%
England vs. Ghana: Both Teams to Score Jun 24 $993 −$993 -100%
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 3.5 Jun 23 $1,185 −$40 -3%
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 26? Jun 23 $705 −$295 -42%
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? Jun 22 $689 −$77 -11%
Argentina vs. Austria: Both Teams to Score Jun 22 $1,256 −$64 -5%
Will Abbas Araghchi attend the US-Iran Signing Ceremony? Jun 22 $562 −$230 -41%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 12:00PM-4:00PM ET Jun 21 $106 −$106 -100%
Valorant: EDward Gaming vs Leviatán Esports (BO5) - VCT Masters London Jun 21 $320 −$320 -100%
Starmer out by June 26, 2026? Jun 21 $433 −$154 -36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 1AM ET Jun 20 $77 −$77 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 12:00PM-4:00PM ET Jun 19 $211 −$211 -100%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Jun 19 $490 +$294 +60%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-18? AND Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? AND Jun 19 $307 +$959 +313%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:00PM-4:00PM ET Jun 18 $60 +$4 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1PM ET Jun 18 $102 −$8 -8%
Czechia vs. South Africa: Both Teams to Score AND Will Czechia win on Jun 18 $419 −$240 -57%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? Jun 18 $5,590 −$2,174 -39%
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy (BO5) - Asia Masters Playo Jun 17 $293 −$287 -98%
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Dplus KIA Challengers - Game 3 Winner Jun 17 $189 +$390 +206%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3AM ET Jun 17 $158 −$151 -96%
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Dplus KIA Challengers (BO5) - Asia Mast Jun 17 $129 −$45 -35%
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 3.5 AND Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $489 +$833 +170%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 AND Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $148 +$169 +114%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:15PM-1:30PM ET Jun 16 $105 −$100 -95%
Valorant: Team Vitality vs FUT Esports (BO3) - VCT Masters London Play Jun 16 $100 −$85 -85%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12PM ET Jun 16 $116 −$110 -95%
Belgium vs. Egypt: Both Teams to Score Jun 15 $323 +$326 +101%
Valorant: Paper Rex vs Team Vitality (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playof Jun 15 $170 +$272 +160%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $211 −$59 -28%
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 0.5 AND IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 0.5 Jun 15 $302 −$302 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5AM ET Jun 15 $105 +$86 +82%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET Jun 15 $104 −$100 -96%
Counter-Strike: 9z vs TheMongolz (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 15 $297 −$13 -4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12AM ET Jun 15 $64 −$61 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:00PM-2:15PM ET Jun 14 $194 −$194 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET Jun 14 $106 +$488 +460%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo Jun 14 $297 −$117 -39%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:15PM-12:30PM ET Jun 14 $103 +$60 +58%
Will Australia win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $143 +$201 +140%
Brazil vs. Morocco: Both Teams to Score Jun 14 $203 +$222 +109%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 13 $439 +$581 +133%
Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 2.5 Jun 12 $385 +$259 +67%
Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire over by June 15? Jun 12 $123 −$53 -43%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Jun 12 $204 +$34 +17%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Qatar by September 30, BUY Yes 30¢ $445 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 8:00PM-12:00AM ET SELL Up 52¢ $446 1h
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Qatar by September 30, BUY Yes 29¢ $224 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 8:00PM-12:00AM ET BUY Up 23¢ $105 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 8:00PM-12:00AM ET BUY Up 22¢ $105 2h
Will Canada win on 2026-06-28? AND Canada leading at halftime? BUY 40¢ $600 12h
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 28? SELL Up 15¢ $114 15h
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 28? BUY Up 20¢ $119 15h
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 28? BUY Up 20¢ $4 15h
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 28? BUY Up 20¢ $4 15h
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 28? BUY Up 20¢ $33 15h
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 29? SELL Yes 15¢ $436 40h
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 29? BUY Yes 19¢ $197 42h
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 29? BUY Yes 19¢ $52 42h
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 29? BUY Yes 19¢ $38 42h
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 29? BUY Yes 19¢ $6 42h
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 29? BUY Yes 19¢ $10 42h
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 29? BUY Yes 19¢ $4 42h
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 29? BUY Yes 19¢ $26 42h
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 29? BUY Yes 19¢ $23 43h
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 29? BUY Yes 19¢ $4 43h
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 29? BUY Yes 19¢ $1 43h
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 29? BUY Yes 19¢ $23 43h
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 29? BUY Yes 19¢ $2 43h
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 29? BUY Yes 19¢ $57 43h
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 29? BUY Yes 19¢ $10 43h
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 29? BUY Yes 19¢ $19 44h
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 29? BUY Yes 19¢ $2 44h
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 29? BUY Yes 19¢ $5 44h
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 29? BUY Yes 19¢ $1 44h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $947.70 · official $947.70 (match) · 995 history records