Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T16:24:54+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.5
score
0F 0x0f90…a39f sports 199 markets active 2h ago coverage 61d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$761 (+6%) realized +$1,055 · open −$294
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -12% what you keep after slip
Net edge-12%after slip
Net WR56%break-even
Win rate58%114W / 84L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$62per market
Trades / day6.8pace
Fees−$198est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days+$477
14 days+$873
30 days−$1
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 100% +$513
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +56%
net ROI/market (all)-8.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 14 +16.4% +5.3% 64% 64% +3.5%
≤30d 85 -18.2% -26.0% 45% 41% -9.5%
≤90d 198 +1.4% -8.3% 58% 56% -3.4%
all 198 +1.4% -8.3% 58% 56% -3.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover6.8 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -8.3% 56% -3.4%
10% -17.0% 52% -12.7%
15% -25.0% 43% -21.1%
20% -32.4% 29% -28.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 9% · top 2 16% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +7% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
4% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +1% · $-wt +7% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +11% → late -8% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$37 vs −$41 · ×0.91 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.23 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

61d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$1,055
Unrealized−$294
Win rate (resolved)58%
Wins / losses114 / 84
Est. fees paid−$198
Open positions1
Markets (closed)198 / 199
History coverage61d
Avg bet$62
Trades / day6.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 198 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs BetBoom Team 46¢ 0¢ $294 $0 −$294 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 15 $465 −$375 -81%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Jun 15 $190 +$175 +92%
Counter-Strike: 9z vs TheMongolz (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 15 $204 +$384 +188%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 14 $162 −$162 -100%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo Jun 14 $395 +$42 +11%
Map Handicap: VIT (-1.5) vs 9z (+1.5) Jun 14 $169 −$169 -100%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FURIA (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage Jun 14 $175 −$175 -100%
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 14 $246 +$281 +114%
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 13 $150 −$26 -17%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage Jun 13 $275 +$67 +24%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs TheMongolz (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Jun 13 $301 +$184 +61%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Jun 12 $112 +$54 +49%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs MOUZ (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 12 $301 +$114 +38%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Spirit (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag Jun 11 $170 +$85 +50%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag Jun 11 $100 +$40 +40%
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major S Jun 11 $140 +$179 +128%
Dota 2: LGD Gaming vs Team Spirit (BO1) - BLAST Slam Group Stage Jun 09 $20 −$20 -100%
Dota 2: Team Falcons vs Aurora (BO1) - BLAST Slam Group Stage Jun 09 $20 −$20 -100%
Dota 2: BetBoom Team vs Team Liquid (BO1) - BLAST Slam Group Stage Jun 09 $28 −$28 -100%
Dota 2: LGD Gaming vs Team Liquid (BO1) - BLAST Slam Group Stage Jun 09 $28 −$28 -100%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs BetBoom Team (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage Jun 09 $17 −$17 -100%
Dota 2: Team Falcons vs Team Yandex (BO1) - BLAST Slam Group Stage Jun 09 $41 −$41 -100%
Counter-Strike: BIG vs B8 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 09 $244 +$35 +14%
Counter-Strike: TYLOO vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 09 $121 +$53 +44%
Map Handicap: G2 (-1.5) vs BIG (+1.5) Jun 08 $37 +$39 +107%
Counter-Strike: Monte vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage Jun 08 $53 +$24 +46%
Counter-Strike: MIBR vs B8 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 08 $71 +$72 +101%
Counter-Strike: G2 vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 08 $44 +$45 +101%
Counter-Strike: B8 vs GamerLegion (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 07 $40 +$4 +11%
Dota 2: Team Yandex vs LGD Gaming - Game 1 Winner Jun 07 $27 +$13 +46%
Dota 2: BetBoom Team vs LGD Gaming (BO3) - BLAST Slam Playoffs Jun 07 $15 +$22 +143%
Dota 2: Aurora vs LGD Gaming (BO3) - BLAST Slam Playoffs Jun 06 $20 +$25 +123%
Dota 2: PARIVISION vs BetBoom Team (BO1) - BLAST Slam Group Stage May 27 $42 +$26 +60%
Dota 2: OG vs Tundra Esports (BO1) - BLAST Slam Group Stage May 27 $23 $0 -1%
Dota 2: Team Falcons vs ex-HEROIC (BO1) - BLAST Slam Group Stage May 27 $15 −$15 -100%
Dota 2: BetBoom Team vs Team Spirit (BO1) - BLAST Slam Group Stage May 27 $25 −$25 -100%
Valorant: Division One vs Dynamo Esports (BO3) - VCL North America: St May 26 $50 +$18 +36%
Valorant: Leviatán Esports vs G2 Esports (BO5) - VCT Americas Stage 1 May 26 $42 −$31 -74%
Counter-Strike: WW Team vs K27 (BO3) - CIS LAN Championship Group C May 26 $11 −$11 -100%
Dota 2: Tundra Esports vs Team Spirit (BO1) - BLAST Slam Group Stage May 26 $33 +$28 +86%
Dota 2: PARIVISION vs Xtreme Gaming (BO1) - BLAST Slam Group Stage May 26 $21 +$11 +53%
Dota 2: Tundra Esports vs Aurora (BO1) - BLAST Slam Group Stage May 26 $13 +$8 +60%
Dota 2: PARIVISION vs Aurora (BO5) - DreamLeague Playoffs May 24 $41 $0 +1%
Dota 2: Team Spirit vs Aurora (BO3) - DreamLeague Playoffs May 24 $112 −$71 -63%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs Legacy (BO5) - CS Asia Championships P May 24 $143 +$26 +18%
Dota 2: Team Falcons vs PlayTime (BO3) - DreamLeague Playoffs May 24 $19 −$19 -100%
Dota 2: PARIVISION vs Team Spirit (BO3) - DreamLeague Playoffs May 24 $38 −$38 -100%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs BC.Game Esports - Map 2 Winner May 23 $10 −$10 -100%
Dota 2: Tundra Esports vs PlayTime (BO3) - DreamLeague Group B May 23 $27 −$27 -100%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs BC.Game Esports (BO1) - CS Asia Champi May 23 $30 −$30 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo BUY BetBoom Team 22¢ $20 1h
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo BUY BetBoom Team 55¢ $67 2h
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo BUY BetBoom Team 48¢ $211 2h
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 SELL Natus Vincere 13¢ $90 2d
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY Natus Vincere 65¢ $465 2d
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major SELL BetBoom Team 100¢ $364 3d
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major BUY BetBoom Team 58¢ $100 3d
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major BUY BetBoom Team 45¢ $89 3d
Counter-Strike: 9z vs TheMongolz (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 SELL 9z 100¢ $588 3d
Counter-Strike: 9z vs TheMongolz (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY 9z 34¢ $204 3d
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo SELL Natus Vincere 61¢ $437 3d
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo BUY Natus Vincere 31¢ $20 3d
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo BUY Natus Vincere 56¢ $375 3d
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY 9z 48¢ $162 4d
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 SELL FUT Esports 99¢ $527 4d
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY FUT Esports 42¢ $25 4d
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY FUT Esports 44¢ $17 4d
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY FUT Esports 46¢ $203 4d
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FURIA (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage BUY BetBoom Team 20¢ $53 4d
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FURIA (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage BUY BetBoom Team 38¢ $122 4d
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 SELL Legacy 63¢ $125 4d
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY Legacy 75¢ $150 5d
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage SELL Team Falcons 95¢ $342 5d
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage BUY Team Falcons 70¢ $91 5d
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage BUY Team Falcons 79¢ $184 5d
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs TheMongolz (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major SELL Natus Vincere 99¢ $485 5d
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs TheMongolz (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major BUY Natus Vincere 48¢ $100 5d
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs TheMongolz (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major BUY Natus Vincere 70¢ $202 5d
Map Handicap: VIT (-1.5) vs 9z (+1.5) BUY Vitality 72¢ $169 5d
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major SELL BetBoom Team 71¢ $166 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.32 · official $0.32 (match) · 478 history records