Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T20:22:16+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
0F 0x0f91…558c other 75 markets active 2d ago coverage 218d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$784 (+4%) realized +$721 · open +$63
Gross ROI / mkt +3% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -7% what you keep after slip
Net edge-7%after slip
Net WR8%break-even
Win rate90%66W / 7L
Whale WR100%big bets
Drawdown12%max
Avg bet$289per market
Trades / day1.8pace
Kalshi-fit56%portable
Net worth$1,465now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$9
7 days+$13
14 days+$23
30 days+$33
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 56% +$549
world 17% +$146
finance 12% +$97
politics 12% −$33
tech 2% +$2
economics 1% +$4
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +8%
net ROI/market (all)-7.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 +3.7% -6.2% 100% 0% -6.5%
≤30d 8 +3.0% -6.8% 88% 0% -7.8%
≤90d 27 -2.1% -11.4% 89% 7% -5.3%
all 73 +2.8% -7.0% 90% 8% -6.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.8 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -7.0% 8% -6.3%
10% -15.9% 5% -15.3%
15% -24.0% 3% -23.4%
20% -31.5% 1% -30.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 33% · top 2 49% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +5% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
91% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +3% · $-wt +4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 100% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +5% → late +1% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
3.8 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$13 vs −$18 · ×0.7 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×6.63 per $1 lost it wins $6.63
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

218d coverage
Net worth$1,465
Realized+$721
Unrealized+$63
Win rate (resolved)90%
Wins / losses66 / 7
Whale WR (big bets)100%
Open positions2
Markets (closed)73 / 75
History coverage218d
Avg bet$289
Trades / day1.8
Drawdown12%
Kalshi-fit56%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 73 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Discord not IPO by June 30, 2026? Yes 94¢ 99¢ $1,183 $1,244 +$61 (+5%)
Will Trump visit North Korea by June 30? No 99¢ 100¢ $220 $221 +$2 (+1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will House of the Dragon Season 3 premiere by June 21? Jun 22 $295 +$9 +3%
Will "Monster" be said during the next Spider-Man trailer? Jun 17 $87 +$4 +4%
Will Canada send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by June 30, 202 Jun 15 $19 $0 +1%
Will Oracle say "Debt" during earnings call? Jun 11 $24 +$2 +8%
Will Oracle say "Health" or "Healthcare" during earnings call? Jun 10 $89 +$2 +2%
Will Oracle say "Growth" during earnings call? Jun 10 $153 +$7 +4%
Will Anthropic not IPO by June 30, 2026? Jun 01 $468 −$1 -0%
New "The Boys" episode released by May 31? Jun 01 $557 +$10 +2%
Will Australia send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by June 30, May 22 $9 −$8 -90%
Will the U.S. 30-year Fixed-Rate Mortgage hit 6.50% (HIGH) by December May 21 $14 +$1 +8%
Will Google say "YouTube" during earnings call? Apr 30 $598 +$14 +2%
Will Google say "Alphabet" during earnings call? Apr 30 $1,042 +$20 +2%
Will Google say "Advertising" or "Advertisement" during earnings call? Apr 27 $63 +$18 +28%
Trump posts himself as Jesus again in April? Apr 27 $221 +$4 +2%
Will SpaceX IPO by April 30, 2026? Apr 18 $224 +$2 +1%
Will Trump visit North Korea by April 30? Apr 18 $1,498 +$16 +1%
Will SpaceX’s initial public offering occur in April 2026 (ET)? Apr 18 $127 +$1 +1%
Will the U.S. 30-year Fixed-Rate Mortgage hit 7.00% (HIGH) by December Apr 18 $5 −$4 -75%
Will Trump meet with Andy Jassy in March 2026? Apr 01 $153 +$12 +8%
Will Liftoff Mobile not IPO before April 2026? Apr 01 $394 +$3 +1%
Will Trump meet with Elon Musk in March 2026? Apr 01 $20 $0 +2%
Will Trump meet with MrBeast in March 2026? Apr 01 $25 $0 +1%
Taliban blackmail of D.C. shooter confirmed by March 31? Apr 01 $245 +$5 +2%
Will Trump meet with Satya Nadella in March 2026? Apr 01 $398 +$1 +0%
Will Trump launch a coin by March 31? Apr 01 $81 +$1 +2%
Will Trump meet with Kim Jong Un in March 2026? Mar 29 $469 +$1 +0%
Will the U.S. 30-year Fixed-Rate Mortgage hit 6.30% (HIGH) by December Mar 27 $1,199 +$273 +23%
Will the U.S. 30-year Fixed-Rate Mortgage hit 6.20% (HIGH) by December Mar 23 $636 +$18 +3%
Kraken IPO by March 31, 2026? Mar 21 $1,234 +$49 +4%
Will China invade Taiwan by March 31, 2026? Mar 10 $1,226 +$8 +1%
Will Donald Trump be named in newly released Epstein files by February Mar 02 $59 +$24 +42%
Will Robert Downey Jr. be named in newly released Epstein files by Feb Mar 01 $238 +$4 +2%
Will Quentin Tarantino be named in newly released Epstein files by Feb Mar 01 $307 +$26 +8%
Will Zohran Mamdani be named in newly released Epstein files by Februa Mar 01 $558 +$10 +2%
Will Xi Jinping visit US before 2027? Feb 21 $6 +$1 +11%
Will Robinhood say "Prediction" during earnings call? Feb 11 $100 +$5 +5%
Will Robinhood say "Gold" during earnings call? Feb 11 $248 +$12 +5%
Will S&P Global say "AI" or "Artificial Intelligence" 3+ times during Feb 10 $50 +$6 +11%
Will S&P Global say "Rating" during earnings call? Feb 10 $62 +$3 +5%
Will S&P Global say "Benchmark" during earnings call? Feb 10 $72 +$3 +4%
Will S&P Global say "Dow Jones" during earnings call? Feb 10 $100 +$2 +2%
Will Trump meet with Emmanuel Macron in January 2026? Feb 10 $83 −$83 -100%
30-year mortgage rate below 6% by January 31? Feb 07 $1,119 +$30 +3%
Bill Clinton charged by January 31? Jan 30 $236 +$3 +2%
New "Stranger Things" episode released by January 31? Jan 29 $1,052 +$13 +1%
Will Trump meet with Volodymyr Zelenskyy in January 2026? Jan 20 $27 −$18 -68%
U.S. agrees to a new trade deal with "Taiwan" before 2027? Jan 16 $102 −$11 -11%
Will BlackRock say "Performance Fee" during earnings call? Jan 15 $30 +$1 +4%
Will BlackRock say "Private market" during earnings call? Jan 15 $68 +$3 +4%
Will the U.S. invade Mexico in 2026? Jan 13 $50 +$136 +272%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Discord not IPO by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 99¢ $13 41h
Will Discord not IPO by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 99¢ $20 46h
Will House of the Dragon Season 3 premiere by June 21? BUY Yes 98¢ $66 2d
Will Discord not IPO by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 99¢ $99 2d
Will House of the Dragon Season 3 premiere by June 21? BUY Yes 99¢ $85 4d
Will House of the Dragon Season 3 premiere by June 21? BUY Yes 99¢ $5 4d
Will House of the Dragon Season 3 premiere by June 21? BUY Yes 95¢ $89 5d
Will Trump visit North Korea by June 30? SELL No 99¢ $89 5d
Will "Monster" be said during the next Spider-Man trailer? SELL No $1 5d
Will House of the Dragon Season 3 premiere by June 21? BUY Yes 96¢ $2 6d
Will "Monster" be said during the next Spider-Man trailer? SELL No 10¢ $1 6d
Will "Monster" be said during the next Spider-Man trailer? SELL No 13¢ $1 6d
Will "Monster" be said during the next Spider-Man trailer? SELL No 16¢ $1 6d
Will House of the Dragon Season 3 premiere by June 21? BUY Yes 95¢ $49 6d
Will Trump visit North Korea by June 30? SELL No 99¢ $50 6d
Will "Monster" be said during the next Spider-Man trailer? BUY Yes 81¢ $4 6d
Will "Monster" be said during the next Spider-Man trailer? BUY Yes 79¢ $7 6d
Will Trump visit North Korea by June 30? SELL No 99¢ $11 6d
Will "Monster" be said during the next Spider-Man trailer? BUY Yes 78¢ $11 7d
Will "Monster" be said during the next Spider-Man trailer? BUY Yes 78¢ $31 7d
Will "Monster" be said during the next Spider-Man trailer? BUY Yes 77¢ $4 7d
Will "Monster" be said during the next Spider-Man trailer? BUY Yes 77¢ $12 7d
Will Trump visit North Korea by June 30? SELL No 99¢ $18 7d
Will Trump visit North Korea by June 30? SELL No 99¢ $40 7d
Will "Monster" be said during the next Spider-Man trailer? BUY No 50¢ $19 7d
Will Canada send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by June 30, 202 SELL No 95¢ $8 7d
Will Canada send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by June 30, 202 SELL No 95¢ $11 7d
Will Discord not IPO by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 98¢ $2 9d
Will Trump visit North Korea by June 30? SELL No 99¢ $2 9d
Will Discord not IPO by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 98¢ $2 9d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,465.24 · official $1,465.24 (match) · 453 history records