Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T17:42:51+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5
score
0F 0x0f93…8671 other 10 markets active 1h ago coverage 5d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real
Total PnL +$3 (+3%) realized +$3 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +22% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +6% what you keep after slip
Net edge+6%after slip
Net WR67%break-even
Win rate78%7W / 2L
Drawdown18%max
Avg bet$9per market
Trades / day3.2pace
Kalshi-fit10%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 5d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 99% +$17
crypto 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +67%
net ROI/market (all)+9.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 9 +21.5% +9.9% 78% 67% +8.1%
≤30d 9 +21.5% +9.9% 78% 67% +8.1%
≤90d 9 +21.5% +9.9% 78% 67% +8.1%
all 9 +21.5% +9.9% 78% 67% +8.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.2 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +9.9% 67% +8.1%
10% -0.6% 44% -2.2%
15% -10.2% 44% -11.7%
20% -19.0% 33% -20.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 28% · top 2 47% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +20% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
14% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +21% · $-wt +20% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$3 vs −$2 · ×1.43 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×5.01 per $1 lost it wins $5.01
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

5d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$3
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)78%
Wins / losses7 / 2
Open positions0
Markets (closed)9 / 10
History coverage5d
Avg bet$9
Trades / day3.2
Drawdown18%
Kalshi-fit10%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 9 Trades
no open positions (1 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Spain win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $40 +$4 +9%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $25 +$3 +12%
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? AND Will Morocco win on 2026-06- Jun 19 $5 +$6 +116%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $3 −$3 -99%
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? AND Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $3 +$4 +131%
Cédric Bakambu: 1+ shots Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $4 +$3 +67%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET Jun 17 $1 $0 +13%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $3 +$1 +46%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 18 history records