Wallet analysis

2026-06-29T03:19:08+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
0F 0x0f9f…dc94 crypto 38 markets active 0h ago coverage 44d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$150 (+5%) realized +$150 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +6% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -4% what you keep after slip
Net edge-4%after slip
Net WR71%break-even
Win rate71%27W / 11L
Drawdown47%max
Avg bet$74per market
Trades / day1.1pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 44d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% +$474
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +71%
net ROI/market (all)-3.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 27 +22.5% +10.8% 81% 81% +9.6%
≤30d 27 +22.5% +10.8% 81% 81% +9.6%
≤90d 38 +6.4% -3.8% 71% 71% +5.9%
all 38 +6.4% -3.8% 71% 71% +5.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -3.8% 71% +5.9%
10% -13.0% 71% -4.2%
15% -21.4% 71% -13.5%
20% -29.1% 32% -22.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 6% · top 2 12% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +17% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +6% · $-wt +17% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +1% → late +12% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$41 vs −$56 · ×0.72 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.76 per $1 lost it wins $1.76
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

44d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$150
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)71%
Wins / losses27 / 11
Open positions0
Markets (closed)38 / 38
History coverage44d
Avg bet$74
Trades / day1.1
Drawdown47%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 38 Trades
no open positions (11 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET Jun 29 $103 +$61 +60%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 11:10PM-11:15PM ET Jun 29 $102 −$100 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET Jun 29 $102 +$45 +44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 10:40PM-10:45PM ET Jun 29 $102 +$46 +45%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET Jun 29 $102 +$45 +44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 10:25PM-10:30PM ET Jun 29 $103 +$54 +52%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET Jun 29 $103 +$63 +61%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET Jun 29 $103 +$56 +55%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET Jun 29 $102 +$50 +49%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET Jun 29 $58 +$23 +40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET Jun 29 $102 −$100 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET Jun 29 $102 −$100 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET Jun 29 $102 +$47 +46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET Jun 29 $102 +$51 +50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET Jun 29 $103 −$100 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET Jun 29 $103 +$59 +57%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 7:50PM-7:55PM ET Jun 28 $103 −$100 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET Jun 28 $103 +$54 +52%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET Jun 28 $103 +$67 +65%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET Jun 28 $103 +$64 +63%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET Jun 28 $102 +$48 +47%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET Jun 28 $102 +$47 +46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET Jun 28 $90 +$37 +41%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET Jun 28 $12 +$6 +50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET Jun 28 $103 +$56 +55%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET Jun 28 $21 +$9 +40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET Jun 28 $102 +$47 +46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 7:55PM-8:00PM ET May 16 $20 −$20 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET May 16 $21 −$20 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET May 16 $20 −$20 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET May 16 $20 +$9 +42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET May 16 $20 +$9 +42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET May 16 $20 +$9 +46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET May 16 $21 −$20 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET May 16 $20 −$20 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET May 16 $21 −$20 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET May 16 $21 +$14 +68%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET May 16 $51 +$19 +38%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 11:10PM-11:15PM ET BUY Up 65¢ $102 8m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET BUY Up 61¢ $103 13m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET BUY Up 68¢ $102 23m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 10:40PM-10:45PM ET BUY Up 67¢ $102 37m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET BUY Up 68¢ $102 43m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 10:25PM-10:30PM ET BUY Up 64¢ $103 53m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET BUY Up 60¢ $103 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET BUY Up 63¢ $103 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET BUY Up 66¢ $102 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET BUY Up 70¢ $102 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET BUY Up 70¢ $58 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET BUY Up 65¢ $102 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET BUY Up 67¢ $102 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET BUY Up 65¢ $102 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET BUY Up 64¢ $103 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET BUY Up 62¢ $103 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 7:50PM-7:55PM ET BUY Up 56¢ $103 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET BUY Up 64¢ $103 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET BUY Up 59¢ $103 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET BUY Up 60¢ $103 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET BUY Up 66¢ $102 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET BUY Up 67¢ $102 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET BUY Up 70¢ $90 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET BUY Up 65¢ $12 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET BUY Up 63¢ $103 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET BUY Up 70¢ $21 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET BUY Up 67¢ $102 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 7:55PM-8:00PM ET BUY Up 69¢ $20 43d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET BUY Up 54¢ $21 43d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET BUY Up 67¢ $20 43d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 74 history records