trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?
| timeframe | markets | gross ROI | NET ROI | gross WR | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ≤7d | 2 | +32.7% | +20.1% | 100% | 100% | +15.8% |
| ≤30d | 2 | +32.7% | +20.1% | 100% | 100% | +15.8% |
| ≤90d | 5 | -46.9% | -52.0% | 40% | 40% | -41.6% |
| all | 27 | -24.0% | -31.3% | 59% | 41% | -38.8% |
| copier slippage | NET ROI | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5% ideal ← realistic here | -31.3% | 41% | -38.8% |
| 10% | -37.8% | 30% | -44.7% |
| 15% | -43.8% | 11% | -50.0% |
| 20% | -49.3% | 7% | -54.9% |
| Market | outcome | entry | now | invested | value | unrealized PnL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? | No | 81¢ | 94¢ | $259 | $301 | +$42 (+16%) |
| Will England win on 2026-06-27? | Yes | 85¢ | 84¢ | $170 | $169 | −$1 (-1%) |
| Market | when | invested | PnL | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-25? | Jun 26 | $154 | +$17 | +11% |
| Viktor Orbán out by December 31, 2026? | Jun 25 | $100 | +$55 | +55% |
| Will Rob Jetten become the next Prime Minister of the Netherlands? | Apr 11 | $100 | −$100 | -100% |
| Earthquake 7.0 or above by July 31? | Apr 09 | $50 | −$50 | -100% |
| Will Tesla launch a driverless Robotaxi service in 2025? | Apr 09 | $100 | −$100 | -100% |
| Will Henri Bontenbal become the next Prime Minister of the Netherlands | Mar 21 | $43 | +$57 | +133% |
| Will Elon Musk announce Presidential run in 2025? | Jan 10 | $20 | +$1 | +5% |
| Will Democrats 66 win the most seats in the 2025 Netherlands parliamen | Jan 10 | $28 | +$4 | +13% |
| Will the Christian Democratic Appeal win the most seats in the 2025 Ne | Jan 10 | $36 | +$2 | +6% |
| Will Trump jail Elon Musk? | Jan 10 | $50 | +$2 | +5% |
| Will People's Party for Freedom and Democracy win the most seats in th | Jan 10 | $40 | +$15 | +37% |
| Will GreenLeft–Labour win the most seats in the 2025 Netherlands parli | Jan 10 | $45 | +$16 | +35% |
| Will the Party for Freedom win the most seats in the 2025 Netherlands | Oct 29 | $100 | −$80 | -80% |
| Will Tesla launch a driverless Robotaxi service before July? | Jul 19 | $229 | +$72 | +31% |
| Will Trump create Bitcoin reserve in first 100 days? | Jun 12 | $90 | +$17 | +19% |
| Will Trump apologize to Elon by Monday? | Jun 12 | $20 | $0 | +2% |
| Trump ends taxes on tips in first 100 days? | Apr 26 | $80 | +$23 | +29% |
| Trump ends Ukraine war in first 90 days? | Apr 26 | $80 | +$20 | +25% |
| Will Joe pardon Hunter Biden? | Jan 28 | $50 | −$50 | -100% |
| Which party wins 2024 US Presidential Election? | Jan 28 | $49 | −$49 | -100% |
| Will Joe Biden win the 2024 US Presidential Election? | Jan 28 | $92 | −$92 | -100% |
| Will Donald Trump win the 2024 US Presidential Election? | Jan 28 | $122 | −$122 | -100% |
| Kamala Harris wins the popular vote? | Jan 28 | $250 | −$250 | -100% |
| Will Biden finish his term? | Jan 28 | $81 | +$19 | +24% |
| Will Michelle Obama win the 2024 US Presidential Election? | Jan 28 | $245 | +$5 | +2% |
| Will Spain win Gold in Men's Football (Soccer)? | Aug 10 | $25 | −$25 | -100% |
| Will Joe Biden win the 2024 Democratic Presidential Nomination? | Aug 07 | $212 | −$212 | -100% |