Wallet analysis

2026-06-28T01:30:22+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.0
score
0F 0x0fa1…bf73 sports 1360 markets active 1h ago coverage 136d ⚠
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 136d only
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$2,566 (+7%) realized +$3,543 · open −$977
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -22% what you keep after slip
Net edge-22%after slip
Net WR45%break-even
Win rate45%626W / 763L
Drawdown22%max
Avg bet$25per market
Trades / day25.4pace
Fees−$339est.
Kalshi-fit85%portable
Net worth$307now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$562
7 days+$842
14 days+$735
30 days+$825
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 93% +$2,203
other 7% +$327
world 0% +$30
crypto 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +45%
net ROI/market (all)-8.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 103 -54.7% -59.0% 25% 25% +0.6%
≤30d 221 -25.5% -32.6% 40% 40% -3.7%
≤90d 807 -5.2% -14.2% 44% 44% -1.2%
all 1389 +0.8% -8.8% 45% 45% -1.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover25.4 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -8.8% 45% -1.2%
10% ← realistic here -17.6% 45% -10.6%
15% -25.5% 44% -19.3%
20% -32.8% 42% -27.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 6% · top 2 8% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +9% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +1% · $-wt +9% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +6% → late -5% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
2.0 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$26 vs −$17 · ×1.49 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.22 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

136d coverage
Net worth$307
Realized+$3,543
Unrealized−$977
Win rate (resolved)45%
Wins / losses626 / 763
Est. fees paid−$339
Open positions6
Markets (closed)1389 / 1360
History coverage136d ⚠
Avg bet$25
Trades / day25.4
Drawdown22%
Kalshi-fit85%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 6 History 1389 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Argentina reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? Yes 23¢ 34¢ $100 $150 +$50 (+50%)
Will Germany reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? Yes 12¢ 10¢ $100 $79 −$21 (-21%)
Colombia vs. Portugal: O/U 0.5 Over 74¢ 6¢ $814 $60 −$753 (-93%)
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-27? Yes 29¢ 100¢ $5 $17 +$12 (+244%)
Colombia vs. Portugal: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Over 61¢ 0¢ $164 $0 −$164 (-100%)
Colombia vs. Portugal: O/U 1.5 Over 54¢ 0¢ $101 $0 −$101 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 494 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will En Avant Guingamp win on 2026-02-06? Jun 28 $8 −$8 -100%
West Ham United FC vs. Manchester United FC: O/U 2.5 Jun 28 $10 −$10 -100%
CA Central Córdoba vs. CA Unión: O/U 1.5 Jun 28 $6 −$6 -100%
Querétaro FC vs. Club León FC: Both Teams to Score Jun 28 $9 −$9 -100%
Querétaro FC vs. Club León FC: O/U 2.5 Jun 28 $20 −$20 -100%
Will Newcastle United FC win on 2026-01-28? Jun 28 $6 −$6 -100%
Will CA Lanús win on 2026-02-09? Jun 28 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Valencia CF win on 2026-02-04? Jun 28 $5 −$5 -100%
Borussia Mönchengladbach vs. Bayer 04 Leverkusen: O/U 2.5 Jun 28 $12 −$12 -100%
Will SV Darmstadt 98 win on 2026-02-01? Jun 28 $8 −$8 -100%
CF América vs. CF Monterrey: O/U 1.5 Jun 28 $30 −$30 -100%
Hertha BSC vs. SC Freiburg: O/U 1.5 Jun 28 $10 −$10 -100%
Will CA Tucumán win on 2026-01-27? Jun 28 $9 −$9 -100%
Will Livingston FC win on 2026-02-04? Jun 28 $5 −$5 -100%
Will FC Rapid 1923 win on 2026-02-06? Jun 28 $10 −$10 -100%
Will AS Roma win on 2026-02-02? Jun 28 $50 −$50 -100%
Will Hull City AFC win on 2026-01-04? Jun 28 $9 −$9 -100%
Will SD Eibar vs. Real Sporting de Gijón end in a draw? Jun 28 $8 −$8 -100%
Nottingham Forest FC vs. Wolverhampton Wanderers FC: O/U 2.5 Jun 28 $10 −$10 -100%
Spread: Clippers (-2.5) Jun 28 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Sevilla FC win on 2026-01-19? Jun 28 $9 −$9 -100%
Will FC Schalke 04 win on 2026-02-07? Jun 28 $5 −$5 -100%
Will EC Vitória vs. CR Flamengo end in a draw? Jun 28 $6 −$6 -100%
Will 1. FC Nürnberg win on 2026-01-30? Jun 28 $6 −$6 -100%
Will SE Palmeiras win on 2026-01-28? Jun 28 $6 −$6 -100%
Will Kasımpaşa SK win on 2026-01-30? Jun 28 $9 −$9 -100%
Will OGC Nice win on 2026-02-01? Jun 28 $8 −$8 -100%
Delfino Pescara 1936 vs. US Catanzaro 1929: O/U 2.5 Jun 28 $7 −$7 -100%
Will SC Braga win on 2026-01-29? Jun 28 $15 −$15 -100%
Will FC Andorra win on 2026-02-07? Jun 28 $9 −$9 -100%
Will Racing Club win on 2026-02-02? Jun 28 $40 −$40 -100%
Will West Bromwich Albion FC win on 2026-02-10? Jun 28 $4 −$4 -100%
Will Leeds United FC win on 2026-02-10? Jun 28 $4 −$4 -100%
Western Sydney Wanderers FC vs. Melbourne City FC: O/U 2.5 Jun 28 $8 −$8 -100%
CD Nacional vs. Casa Pia AC: O/U 1.5 Jun 28 $15 −$15 -100%
Silkeborg IF vs. Viborg FF: O/U 2.5 Jun 28 $9 −$9 -100%
Will Santos FC win on 2026-01-28? Jun 28 $8 −$8 -100%
Will Valencia CF win on 2026-02-01? Jun 28 $8 −$8 -100%
Will Konyaspor win on 2026-02-08? Jun 28 $6 −$6 -100%
Will Fatih Karagümrük SK vs. Antalyaspor end in a draw? Jun 28 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Lille OSC win on 2026-02-06? Jun 28 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Le Mans FC win on 2026-02-07? Jun 28 $9 −$9 -100%
Will RC Strasbourg Alsace vs. Paris Saint-Germain FC end in a draw? Jun 28 $8 −$8 -100%
Will Juventus FC win on 2026-01-28? Jun 28 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Queens Park Rangers FC win on 2026-02-06? Jun 28 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Gimnasia y Esgrima de La Plata win on 2026-01-28? Jun 28 $5 −$5 -100%
Will AS Roma win on 2026-01-29? Jun 28 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Newcastle United FC win on 2026-01-31? Jun 28 $8 −$8 -100%
Will Frosinone Calcio win on 2026-02-07? Jun 28 $8 −$8 -100%
Will Al Hilal Saudi Club win on 2026-02-02? Jun 28 $4 +$4 +106%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Colombia vs. Portugal: O/U 0.5 BUY Over 74¢ $135 40m
Colombia vs. Portugal: O/U 0.5 BUY Over 74¢ $7 40m
Colombia vs. Portugal: O/U 0.5 BUY Over 74¢ $286 40m
Colombia vs. Portugal: O/U 0.5 BUY Over 74¢ $97 40m
Colombia vs. Portugal: O/U 0.5 BUY Over 74¢ $29 40m
Colombia vs. Portugal: O/U 0.5 BUY Over 74¢ $264 41m
Colombia vs. Portugal: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 54¢ $103 1h
Spread: Uzbekistan (-1.5) SELL Uzbekistan 18¢ $4 1h
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 29¢ $5 1h
Spread: Uzbekistan (-1.5) BUY Uzbekistan 20¢ $5 1h
Colombia vs. Portugal: 1st Half O/U 0.5 BUY Over 59¢ $24 1h
Colombia vs. Portugal: 1st Half O/U 0.5 BUY Over 60¢ $30 1h
Colombia vs. Portugal: 1st Half O/U 0.5 BUY Over 61¢ $16 1h
Colombia vs. Portugal: 1st Half O/U 0.5 BUY Over 61¢ $2 1h
Colombia vs. Portugal: 1st Half O/U 0.5 BUY Over 61¢ $31 1h
Colombia vs. Portugal: 1st Half O/U 0.5 BUY Over 62¢ $62 1h
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-27? SELL Yes 23¢ $51 1h
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 24¢ $10 1h
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 24¢ $12 1h
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 24¢ $10 1h
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 24¢ $25 1h
Croatia vs. Ghana: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 17¢ $10 2h
Panama vs. England: O/U 0.5 SELL Over 100¢ $989 2h
Panama vs. England: O/U 0.5 BUY Over 79¢ $574 3h
Panama vs. England: O/U 0.5 BUY Over 79¢ $95 3h
Panama vs. England: O/U 0.5 BUY Over 79¢ $24 3h
Panama vs. England: O/U 0.5 BUY Over 79¢ $102 3h
Panama vs. England: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 56¢ $26 3h
Panama vs. England: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 56¢ $8 3h
Panama vs. England: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 56¢ $11 3h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $307.05 · official $307.09 (match) · 3500 history records