Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T01:26:11+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
0F 0x0fa4…f4ea weather 1390 markets active 0h ago coverage 6d
TRAPdo not copy weather specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
Total PnL −$111 (-1%) realized +$360 · open −$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +5% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -19% what you keep after slip
Net edge-19%after slip
Net WR8%break-even
Win rate98%1007W / 20L
Drawdown21%max
Avg bet$8per market
Trades / day375.2pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$2,719now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 6d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
weather 100% +$457
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +8%
net ROI/market (all)-5.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1027 +5.0% -5.0% 98% 8% -5.9%
≤30d 1027 +5.0% -5.0% 98% 8% -5.9%
≤90d 1027 +5.0% -5.0% 98% 8% -5.9%
all 1027 +5.0% -5.0% 98% 8% -5.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover375.2 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -5.0% 8% -5.9%
10% ← realistic here -14.1% 7% -14.9%
15% -22.4% 7% -23.1%
20% -30.0% 7% -30.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 2% · top 2 4% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
91% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +5% · $-wt +4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +12% → late -2% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$7 · ×0.07 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×3.65 per $1 lost it wins $3.65
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

6d coverage
Net worth$2,719
Realized+$360
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)98%
Wins / losses1007 / 20
Open positions377
Markets (closed)1027 / 1390
History coverage6d
Avg bet$8
Trades / day375.2
Drawdown21%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 377 History 1027 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 8°C on June 15? No 100¢ 100¢ $30 $30 −$0 (-0%)
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 9°C on June 15? No 100¢ 100¢ $25 $25 −$0 (-0%)
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 34°C on June 15? No 99¢ 100¢ $25 $25 +$0 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 20°C on June 15? No 100¢ 100¢ $20 $20 +$0 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 23°C on June 15? No 100¢ 100¢ $20 $20 +$0 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 33°C on June 15? No 100¢ 100¢ $20 $20 +$0 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in Panama City be 26°C or below on June 14? No 100¢ 100¢ $20 $20 +$0 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 34°C or higher on June 15? No 100¢ 100¢ $20 $20 −$0 (-0%)
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 32°C on June 15? No 100¢ 100¢ $20 $20 −$0 (-0%)
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 14°C or below on June 15? No 100¢ 100¢ $20 $20 +$0 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in Panama City be 26°C on June 15? No 100¢ 100¢ $20 $20 −$0 (-0%)
Will the highest temperature in Panama City be 25°C or below on June 15? No 100¢ 100¢ $20 $20 −$0 (-0%)
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 21°C on June 15? No 100¢ 100¢ $20 $20 +$0 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 20°C on June 15? No 98¢ 98¢ $20 $20 +$0 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 27°C or higher on June 15? No 100¢ 100¢ $18 $18 +$0 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 22°C on June 15? No 100¢ 100¢ $15 $15 +$0 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 27°C on June 15? No 100¢ 100¢ $15 $15 +$0 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 7°C or below on June 15? No 100¢ 100¢ $15 $15 +$0 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 35°C or higher on June 15? No 100¢ 100¢ $15 $15 +$0 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 26°C on June 15? No 100¢ 100¢ $15 $15 +$0 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 25°C or below on June 15? No 100¢ 100¢ $15 $15 +$0 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 19°C on June 15? No 100¢ 100¢ $15 $15 +$0 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in New York City be 69°F or below on June 15? No 100¢ 100¢ $15 $15 −$0 (-0%)
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 10°C on June 15? No 100¢ 100¢ $15 $15 −$0 (-0%)
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 26°C on June 16? No 100¢ 100¢ $15 $15 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 33°C on June 1? Jun 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 18°C on May 31? Jun 15 $4 −$4 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 17°C on June 2? Jun 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 36°C on May 31? Jun 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Will the highest temperature in London be 31°C on May 25? Jun 15 $24 −$24 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 23°C on May 28? Jun 15 $4 −$4 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 36°C on May 30? Jun 15 $4 −$4 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 27°C on May 31? Jun 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 20°C or higher on June 2 Jun 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 86-87°F on May 17? Jun 15 $17 −$17 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 17°C on May 28? Jun 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 24°C or higher on June 6? Jun 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 20°C on June 9? Jun 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 34°C on June 8? Jun 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Will the highest temperature in London be 27°C or higher on June 14? Jun 15 $5 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in London be 25°C on June 14? Jun 15 $10 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in London be 17°C or below on June 14? Jun 15 $10 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in London be 24°C on June 14? Jun 15 $10 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in London be 26°C on June 14? Jun 15 $10 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 10°C on June 14? Jun 14 $5 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 12°C on June 14? Jun 14 $5 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 9°C or below on June 14? Jun 14 $5 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 38°C or higher on June 14? Jun 14 $5 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 26°C or higher on June 14? Jun 14 $5 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 37°C on June 14? Jun 14 $5 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 36°C on June 14? Jun 14 $5 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 19°C on June 14? Jun 14 $5 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 24°C on June 14? Jun 14 $5 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 38°C on June 14? Jun 14 $5 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 23°C on June 14? Jun 14 $5 $0 +9%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 25°C on June 14? Jun 14 $5 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 19°C on June 14? Jun 14 $5 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 20°C or below on June 14? Jun 14 $10 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 35°C on June 14? Jun 14 $10 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 19°C or higher on June 14 Jun 14 $10 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 34°C on June 14? Jun 14 $10 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 33°C on June 14? Jun 14 $10 $0 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 18°C on June 14? Jun 14 $10 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 28°C on June 14? Jun 14 $10 $0 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 21°C on June 14? Jun 14 $20 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 20°C on June 14? Jun 14 $20 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 21°C on June 14? Jun 14 $5 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 18°C on June 14? Jun 14 $5 $0 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 20°C or higher on June 14? Jun 14 $5 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 27°C on June 14? Jun 14 $5 $0 +9%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 37°C on June 14? Jun 14 $5 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 30°C or higher on June 14? Jun 14 $10 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 29°C on June 14? Jun 14 $10 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 34°C on June 14? Jun 14 $5 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 28°C on June 14? Jun 14 $5 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in New York City be 69°F or below on June BUY No 99¢ $5 1m
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be 65°F or below on June BUY No 99¢ $5 2m
Will the highest temperature in London be 18°C on June 15? BUY No 100¢ $5 2m
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 84-85°F on June 16? BUY No 99¢ $5 3m
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 30°C or higher on June 15? BUY No 100¢ $5 4m
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 86-87°F on June 16? BUY No 99¢ $5 4m
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 70-71°F on Ju BUY No 99¢ $5 7m
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 84-85°F on Ju BUY No 99¢ $5 7m
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 70-71°F on Ju BUY No 99¢ $5 7m
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 84-85°F on June 16? BUY No 99¢ $5 8m
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be 98°F or higher on June 16? BUY No 99¢ $5 8m
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 96-97°F on June 16? BUY No 99¢ $5 8m
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be 79°F or below on June 16? BUY No 100¢ $5 8m
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 82-83°F on Ju BUY No 99¢ $5 8m
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 94-95°F on June 16? BUY No 99¢ $5 8m
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 80-81°F on June 16? BUY No 99¢ $5 8m
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 28°C on June 16? BUY No 99¢ $5 9m
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 24°C or higher on June 16 BUY No 99¢ $5 9m
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 23°C on June 16? BUY No 99¢ $5 9m
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 27°C or higher on June 15? BUY No 100¢ $5 10m
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 27°C or higher on June 15? BUY No 100¢ $3 10m
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 84-85°F on Ju BUY No 99¢ $5 13m
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 82-83°F on Ju BUY No 99¢ $5 13m
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 21°C or below on June 16? BUY No 100¢ $5 14m
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 36°C on June 16? BUY No 100¢ $5 15m
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 17°C on June 16? BUY No 97¢ $5 1h
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 13°C on June 16? BUY No 100¢ $5 1h
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 12°C on June 16? BUY No 100¢ $5 1h
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 16°C on June 16? BUY No 99¢ $5 1h
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 15°C on June 16? BUY No 100¢ $5 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $2,718.74 · official $2,683.28 · 3500 history records