Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T09:36:33+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.5
score
0F 0x0fa6…2663 world 60 markets active 3h ago coverage 60d
RISKYcopy with care
Total PnL +$591 (+1%) realized −$42 · open +$633
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +54% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +28% what you keep after slip
Net edge+28%after slip
Net WR43%break-even
Win rate48%27W / 29L
Whale WR57%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$780per market
Trades / day6.8pace
Fees−$137est.
Kalshi-fit77%portable
Net worth$2,327now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$1,041
7 days−$4,789
14 days−$5,994
30 days−$1,287
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 44% +$480
other 22% +$2,047
sports 13% −$4,047
crypto 10% +$2,883
politics 8% −$854
tech 3% −$86
weather 0% −$8
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +43%
net ROI/market (all)+38.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 23 -14.7% -22.9% 48% 39% -27.5%
≤30d 54 +54.0% +39.3% 46% 41% -12.2%
≤90d 56 +53.6% +38.9% 48% 43% -10.0%
all 56 +53.6% +38.9% 48% 43% -10.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover6.8 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to20%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +38.9% 43% -10.0%
10% +25.6% 36% -18.6%
15% +13.5% 27% -26.5%
20% +2.4% 23% -33.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 30% · top 2 39% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
11% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +54% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 57% (≥$1,133) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +55% → late +52% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
5.4 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$455 vs −$431 · ×1.06 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.98 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

60d coverage
Net worth$2,327
Realized−$42
Unrealized+$633
Win rate (resolved)48%
Wins / losses27 / 29
Whale WR (big bets)57%
Est. fees paid−$137
Open positions4
Markets (closed)56 / 60
History coverage60d
Avg bet$780
Trades / day6.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit77%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 56 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Yes 76¢ 76¢ $988 $982 −$6 (-1%)
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 22? No 40¢ 73¢ $404 $746 +$342 (+85%)
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 1? No 25¢ 41¢ $250 $410 +$160 (+64%)
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? No 26¢ 95¢ $52 $190 +$138 (+264%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 17 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $700 +$299 +43%
Exact Score: Austria 2 - 1 Jordan? Jun 17 $422 −$420 -100%
Exact Score: Argentina 3 - 0 Algeria? Jun 17 $128 +$41 +32%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $985 +$513 +52%
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 3.5 Jun 16 $382 −$378 -99%
France vs. Senegal: Both Teams to Score Jun 16 $211 +$189 +90%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $2,521 −$1,285 -51%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 21, 2026? Jun 14 $408 −$312 -76%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026? Jun 14 $5,028 −$2,271 -45%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $2,655 +$161 +6%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $1,580 +$847 +54%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 13? Jun 13 $300 −$150 -50%
Israel closes its airspace by June 15? Jun 13 $407 +$631 +155%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $430 +$470 +109%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.4T? Jun 12 $56 +$9 +16%
Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: Both Teams to Score Jun 12 $2,574 −$2,500 -97%
Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire over by June 30? Jun 12 $743 −$504 -68%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 12 $2,722 +$1 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 29°C on June 12? Jun 12 $6 −$6 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 32°C or higher on June 12? Jun 11 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Trump restart Project Freedom by June 30? Jun 11 $1,015 −$722 -71%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 15, 2026? Jun 10 $944 +$618 +66%
Another Trump political opponent federally charged by May 31? Jun 10 $20 −$20 -100%
Will WhiteHawk Minerals' market cap be less than $600M at market close Jun 09 $0 $0 +358%
Will a Claude Mythos model be released by June 9, 2026? Jun 09 $20 −$20 -100%
Will any flight depart from Imam Khomeini International Airport by Jun Jun 09 $1,289 −$402 -31%
Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on June 7, 2026? Jun 08 $304 +$120 +40%
Will "Kai Harada" win Best Sound Design of a Musical at the 2026 Tony Jun 08 $31 −$31 -100%
MicroStrategy announces >1000 BTC purchase June 2-8? Jun 07 $1,214 −$1,208 -100%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 07 $300 +$240 +80%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET Jun 05 $5 −$5 -94%
Trump orders federal review of AI model releases by June 30? Jun 05 $1,133 −$95 -8%
Will Spencer Pratt finish second in the first round of the 2026 Los An Jun 04 $73 −$37 -50%
Will Nithya Raman finish second in the first round of the 2026 Los Ang Jun 04 $126 −$63 -50%
Israel announces Lebanon ceasefire extension by June 7? Jun 04 $723 +$178 +25%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 4? Jun 04 $11 +$225 +2109%
Will Donald Trump publicly insult Benjamin Netanyahu by June 30, 2026? Jun 03 $110 −$48 -44%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 3? Jun 03 $64 −$60 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 7:40PM-7:45PM ET Jun 02 $26 −$25 -97%
Will fewer than 25 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between May 25-J Jun 02 $58 −$58 -100%
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? Jun 02 $2,730 +$3,706 +136%
Will Donald Trump publicly insult Marjorie Taylor Greene by May 31, 20 Jun 01 $1,849 +$372 +20%
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by June 30, 2026? Jun 01 $754 +$250 +33%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra May 31 $2,449 +$574 +23%
US x Cuba diplomatic meeting by May 31? May 30 $199 +$62 +31%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by May 31, 2026? May 30 $2,197 +$1,143 +52%
Indian Premier League: Gujarat Titans vs Rajasthan Royals May 29 $365 −$73 -20%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? May 28 $110 +$22 +20%
Internet Access restored in Iran by May 31, 2026? May 28 $184 −$114 -62%
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 24? May 26 $104 +$7 +7%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 76¢ $995 3h
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 100¢ $999 3h
Exact Score: Austria 2 - 1 Jordan? BUY Yes 84¢ $422 3h
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 70¢ $225 5h
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 70¢ $475 5h
Exact Score: Argentina 3 - 0 Algeria? SELL Yes 100¢ $170 6h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 100¢ $1,498 6h
Exact Score: Argentina 3 - 0 Algeria? BUY Yes 75¢ $128 6h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 65¢ $985 9h
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 63¢ $382 11h
France vs. Senegal: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 52¢ $211 15h
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 37¢ $1,236 40h
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 73¢ $2,170 2d
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 73¢ $350 2d
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 22? BUY No 40¢ $7 2d
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 22? BUY No 40¢ $3 2d
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 22? BUY No 40¢ $5 2d
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 22? BUY No 40¢ $309 2d
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 22? BUY No 38¢ $1 2d
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 22? BUY No 38¢ $9 2d
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 22? BUY No 38¢ $76 2d
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 1? BUY No 25¢ $189 2d
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 1? BUY No 25¢ $33 2d
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 1? BUY No 25¢ $3 2d
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 1? BUY No 25¢ $10 2d
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 1? BUY No 25¢ $0 2d
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 1? BUY No 25¢ $1 2d
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 1? BUY No 25¢ $1 2d
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 1? BUY No 25¢ $1 2d
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 1? BUY No 25¢ $2 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $2,327.27 · official $2,327.17 (match) · 431 history records