Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T18:43:21+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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0F 0x0fab…1ca3 crypto 567 markets active 0h ago coverage 144d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$1,838 (-1%) realized −$1,842 · open +$4
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -18% what you keep after slip
Net edge-18%after slip
Net WR4%break-even
Win rate88%496W / 66L
Whale WR98%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$308per market
Trades / day11.3pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$247now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$31
7 days+$53
14 days−$1,618
30 days−$1,427
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 95% −$1,823
weather 3% −$132
world 1% +$20
sports 1% +$64
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +4%
net ROI/market (all)-11.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 16 +4.8% -5.2% 94% 6% -8.0%
≤30d 281 -0.6% -10.1% 97% 0% -10.5%
≤90d 501 -3.0% -12.2% 91% 1% -10.6%
all 562 -2.4% -11.7% 88% 4% -10.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover11.3 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -11.7% 4% -10.5%
10% -20.1% 2% -19.1%
15% -27.9% 1% -26.9%
20% -34.9% 0% -34.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 7% · top 2 11% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
95% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 98% (≥$584) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -4% → late -1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.5 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$5 vs −$76 · ×0.06 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.56 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

144d coverage
Net worth$247
Realized−$1,842
Unrealized+$4
Win rate (resolved)88%
Wins / losses496 / 66
Whale WR (big bets)98%
Open positions5
Markets (closed)562 / 567
History coverage144d
Avg bet$308
Trades / day11.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 5 History 562 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 74-75°F on June 17? No 98¢ 100¢ $49 $50 +$1 (+1%)
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 64-65°F on June 17? No 99¢ 100¢ $49 $50 +$1 (+1%)
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 20°C on June 17? No 90¢ 100¢ $45 $50 +$5 (+11%)
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 66-67°F on June 17? No 99¢ 99¢ $49 $49 −$0 (-0%)
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 60-61°F on June 17? No 99¢ 95¢ $50 $48 −$2 (-4%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 25°C on June 17? Jun 17 $32 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be 65°F or below on June Jun 17 $49 +$1 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 72-73°F on June 16? Jun 17 $46 +$4 +10%
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 70-71°F on June 16? Jun 17 $50 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 78-79°F on June 16? Jun 17 $49 +$1 +3%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 74-75°F on Ju Jun 17 $46 +$4 +8%
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 22°C on June 16? Jun 16 $40 +$10 +25%
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 21°C on June 16? Jun 16 $47 +$3 +7%
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 18°C on June 16? Jun 16 $50 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 82-83°F on June 15? Jun 16 $46 +$4 +9%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 72-73°F on Ju Jun 16 $49 +$1 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 88-89°F on June 15? Jun 16 $49 +$1 +1%
Will the highest temperature in London be 20°C on June 15? Jun 15 $50 $0 +1%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Jun 15 $481 $0 -0%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 25°C or below on June 15? Jun 15 $48 +$2 +4%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 12 $2,067 +$20 +1%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 82-83°F on Ju Jun 10 $20 −$2 -8%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 14°C on June 11? Jun 10 $2 $0 -1%
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 74-75°F on Ju Jun 10 $1 $0 -2%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 10, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET Jun 10 $12 $0 +1%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 10, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET Jun 10 $10 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET Jun 10 $11 $0 +1%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 9, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET Jun 09 $10 $0 +1%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 9, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET Jun 09 $10 $0 +1%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 9, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET Jun 09 $10 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET Jun 09 $18 $0 +1%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 8, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET Jun 08 $13 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET Jun 08 $10 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET Jun 08 $11 $0 +1%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 8, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET Jun 08 $144 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET Jun 08 $396 −$396 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET Jun 08 $321 +$3 +1%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 8, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET Jun 08 $487 +$5 +1%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 8, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET Jun 08 $322 +$3 +1%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 8, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET Jun 08 $21 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET Jun 08 $851 +$9 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET Jun 08 $851 +$9 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET Jun 08 $1,012 +$10 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET Jun 08 $1,012 +$10 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET Jun 08 $1,012 +$10 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET Jun 08 $919 +$9 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET Jun 08 $712 +$7 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET Jun 08 $1,012 +$10 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET Jun 07 $1,012 +$10 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET Jun 07 $1,012 +$10 +1%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 7, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET Jun 07 $46 $0 +1%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 7, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET Jun 07 $448 +$5 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET Jun 07 $1,012 +$10 +1%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 7, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET Jun 07 $60 +$1 +1%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 7, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET Jun 07 $284 +$3 +1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 66-67°F on Ju BUY No 99¢ $50 27m
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 64-65°F on Ju BUY No 99¢ $49 1h
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 74-75°F on Ju BUY No 98¢ $49 3h
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 60-61°F on June 17? BUY No 99¢ $50 5h
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 20°C on June 17? BUY No 90¢ $45 6h
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 25°C on June 17? BUY No 99¢ $32 19h
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 74-75°F on Ju BUY No 93¢ $46 23h
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 78-79°F on June 16? BUY No 97¢ $49 24h
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 72-73°F on June 16? BUY No 91¢ $46 25h
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be 65°F or below on June BUY No 99¢ $49 25h
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 70-71°F on June 16? BUY No 99¢ $50 25h
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 22°C on June 16? BUY No 79¢ $40 29h
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 21°C on June 16? BUY No 93¢ $47 30h
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 18°C on June 16? BUY No 99¢ $22 33h
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 18°C on June 16? BUY No 99¢ $5 33h
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 18°C on June 16? BUY No 99¢ $6 33h
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 18°C on June 16? BUY No 99¢ $6 34h
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 18°C on June 16? BUY No 99¢ $10 34h
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 72-73°F on Ju BUY No 97¢ $49 2d
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 82-83°F on June 15? BUY No 91¢ $46 2d
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 88-89°F on June 15? BUY No 99¢ $32 2d
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 88-89°F on June 15? BUY No 99¢ $18 2d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL No 37¢ $46 2d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL No 37¢ $122 2d
Will the highest temperature in London be 20°C on June 15? BUY No 99¢ $50 2d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL No 37¢ $78 2d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL No 37¢ $15 2d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL No 37¢ $80 2d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL No 37¢ $63 2d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL No 37¢ $44 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $247.03 · official $247.03 (match) · 2146 history records