Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T11:11:05+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score
0F 0x0faf…fd5e crypto 1163 markets active 5h ago coverage 104d ⚠
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 103d only
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$1,163 (-8%) realized −$1,162 · open −$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -14% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -33% what you keep after slip
Net edge-33%after slip
Net WR39%break-even
Win rate41%475W / 686L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$12per market
Trades / day27.3pace
Fees−$3est.
Kalshi-fit99%portable
Net worth$4now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$11
7 days−$282
14 days−$318
30 days−$2,086
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 97% −$1,698
sports 2% −$61
other 1% −$100
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +39%
net ROI/market (all)-21.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 93 -21.7% -29.1% 37% 34% -28.0%
≤30d 555 -44.4% -49.7% 26% 25% -44.9%
≤90d 1018 -28.9% -35.7% 37% 35% -35.2%
all 1161 -13.5% -21.8% 41% 39% -21.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover27.3 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -21.8% 39% -21.8%
10% ← realistic here -29.3% 36% -29.3%
15% -36.1% 32% -36.1%
20% -42.4% 26% -42.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 4% · top 2 7% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -29% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
6% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -14% · $-wt -14% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +14% → late -41% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.8 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$11 vs −$10 · ×1.07 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.74 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

104d coverage
Net worth$4
Realized−$1,162
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)41%
Wins / losses475 / 686
Est. fees paid−$3
Open positions1
Markets (closed)1161 / 1163
History coverage104d ⚠
Avg bet$12
Trades / day27.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit99%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 1161 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 4¢ 4¢ $5 $4 −$1 (-12%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 188 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Ethereum Up or Down - June 20, 1:45AM-2:00AM ET Jun 20 $19 +$20 +104%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 20, 1:30AM-1:45AM ET Jun 20 $19 −$18 -96%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 20, 1:15AM-1:30AM ET Jun 20 $2 −$2 -94%
Exact Score: Scotland 0 - 2 Morocco? Jun 19 $1 −$1 -97%
Spread: United States (-1.5) Jun 19 $10 +$4 +43%
United States vs. Australia: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 19 $7 +$5 +71%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 19, 2:15AM-2:30AM ET Jun 19 $7 +$4 +53%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 19, 2:00AM-2:15AM ET Jun 19 $22 −$1 -5%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 19, 1:45AM-2:00AM ET Jun 19 $4 −$4 -95%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 19, 12:45AM-1:00AM ET Jun 19 $8 −$3 -40%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 18, 11:45PM-12:00AM ET Jun 19 $2 +$6 +281%
Exact Score: Switzerland 2 - 0 Bosnia-Herzegovina? Jun 19 $10 +$4 +43%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $10 +$2 +17%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 18, 2:15PM-2:30PM ET Jun 18 $15 +$5 +32%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 18, 2:00PM-2:15PM ET Jun 18 $16 −$5 -32%
Czechia vs. South Africa: O/U 2.5 Jun 18 $10 +$1 +6%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 18, 8:00AM-8:15AM ET Jun 18 $10 +$7 +70%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 18, 7:15AM-7:30AM ET Jun 18 $13 −$13 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 18, 7:00AM-7:15AM ET Jun 18 $13 −$12 -96%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 18, 1:45AM-2:00AM ET Jun 18 $36 +$30 +82%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 18, 1:30AM-1:45AM ET Jun 18 $31 +$23 +73%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 18, 1:15AM-1:30AM ET Jun 18 $36 +$7 +18%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 9:30PM-9:45PM ET Jun 18 $3 +$5 +173%
Spread: Portugal (-2.5) Jun 17 $15 −$15 -98%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 10:00AM-10:15AM ET Jun 17 $10 +$3 +28%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 8:45AM-9:00AM ET Jun 17 $10 +$6 +55%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 6:15AM-6:30AM ET Jun 17 $28 +$3 +9%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 6:00AM-6:15AM ET Jun 17 $5 +$2 +42%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 2:30AM-2:45AM ET Jun 17 $5 +$6 +123%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET Jun 17 $21 −$20 -94%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 9:00PM-9:15PM ET Jun 17 $42 −$20 -48%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET Jun 17 $16 −$15 -94%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET Jun 17 $21 +$36 +170%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 8:45PM-9:00PM ET Jun 17 $11 −$10 -94%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET Jun 17 $24 −$23 -95%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET Jun 17 $21 +$20 +94%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 8:30PM-8:45PM ET Jun 17 $21 −$20 -94%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 8:15PM-8:30PM ET Jun 17 $14 −$14 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET Jun 17 $5 −$5 -94%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET Jun 16 $16 +$19 +120%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 7:15PM-7:30PM ET Jun 16 $11 −$10 -94%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET Jun 16 $16 +$48 +301%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 6:30PM-6:45PM ET Jun 16 $16 −$15 -96%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET Jun 16 $11 −$10 -94%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET Jun 16 $8 +$12 +149%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET Jun 16 $16 +$52 +326%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 6:00PM-6:15PM ET Jun 16 $24 −$3 -12%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET Jun 16 $5 −$5 -94%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET Jun 16 $21 −$20 -97%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET Jun 16 $21 −$20 -95%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Ethereum Up or Down - June 20, 1:45AM-2:00AM ET SELL Up 83¢ $38 5h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 20, 1:45AM-2:00AM ET BUY Up 26¢ $3 5h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 20, 1:45AM-2:00AM ET BUY Up 43¢ $16 5h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 20, 1:30AM-1:45AM ET BUY Down 9¢ $3 5h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 20, 1:30AM-1:45AM ET BUY Down 49¢ $5 5h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 20, 1:30AM-1:45AM ET BUY Down 50¢ $10 5h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 20, 1:15AM-1:30AM ET BUY Up 4¢ $1 5h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 20, 1:15AM-1:30AM ET BUY Up 5¢ $1 5h
Exact Score: Scotland 0 - 2 Morocco? BUY Yes 8¢ $1 11h
Spread: United States (-1.5) SELL United States 83¢ $14 15h
United States vs. Australia: 1st Half O/U 1.5 SELL Over 99¢ $12 15h
Spread: United States (-1.5) BUY United States 57¢ $10 15h
United States vs. Australia: 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Over 57¢ $7 15h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 19, 2:15AM-2:30AM ET SELL Up 63¢ $11 28h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 19, 2:15AM-2:30AM ET BUY Up 35¢ $2 28h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 19, 2:15AM-2:30AM ET BUY Up 40¢ $5 28h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 19, 2:00AM-2:15AM ET BUY Down 2¢ $1 28h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 19, 2:00AM-2:15AM ET SELL Up 74¢ $31 29h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 19, 2:00AM-2:15AM ET BUY Up 47¢ $21 29h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 19, 1:45AM-2:00AM ET BUY Down 5¢ $1 29h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 19, 1:45AM-2:00AM ET BUY Down 23¢ $3 29h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 19, 12:45AM-1:00AM ET BUY Up 14¢ $3 30h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 19, 12:45AM-1:00AM ET SELL Up 25¢ $4 30h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 19, 12:45AM-1:00AM ET BUY Up 27¢ $5 30h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 18, 11:45PM-12:00AM ET SELL Down 34¢ $8 31h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 18, 11:45PM-12:00AM ET BUY Down 8¢ $2 31h
Exact Score: Switzerland 2 - 0 Bosnia-Herzegovina? SELL Yes 21¢ $15 38h
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? SELL No 46¢ $12 39h
Exact Score: Switzerland 2 - 0 Bosnia-Herzegovina? BUY Yes 14¢ $10 39h
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? BUY No 38¢ $10 40h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $4.39 · official $4.39 (match) · 3500 history records