Wallet analysis

2026-06-28T08:04:38+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.5
score
0F 0x0fb1…ad6e crypto 58 markets active 2h ago coverage 546d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$58 (-0%) realized −$64 · open +$6
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -11% what you keep after slip
Net edge-11%after slip
Net WR4%break-even
Win rate96%51W / 2L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$222per market
Trades / day0.1pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit83%portable
Net worth$786now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$60
7 days−$60
14 days−$59
30 days−$47
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 42% −$129
other 17% +$17
world 12% −$36
tech 10% +$16
economics 9% +$60
politics 5% +$4
sports 5% +$7
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +4%
net ROI/market (all)-10.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 -100.0% -100.0% 0% 0% -100.0%
≤30d 8 -11.4% -19.8% 88% 0% -13.3%
≤90d 16 -5.1% -14.2% 94% 0% -10.2%
all 53 -1.3% -10.7% 96% 4% -10.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.7% 4% -10.0%
10% -19.2% 2% -18.6%
15% -27.0% 2% -26.5%
20% -34.2% 2% -33.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 24% · top 2 46% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
96% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -0% → late -2% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$4 vs −$135 · ×0.03 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.75 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

546d coverage
Net worth$786
Realized−$64
Unrealized+$6
Win rate (resolved)96%
Wins / losses51 / 2
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions5
Markets (closed)53 / 58
History coverage546d
Avg bet$222
Trades / day0.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit83%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 5 History 53 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Ethereum dip to $1,100 in June? No 99¢ 99¢ $250 $250 −$0 (-0%)
Will France, UK, or Germany strike Iran by June 30? No 99¢ 100¢ $170 $172 +$2 (+1%)
NATO x Russia military clash by June 30, 2026? No 98¢ 100¢ $155 $157 +$2 (+1%)
Putin out as President of Russia by June 30? No 98¢ 100¢ $105 $107 +$2 (+2%)
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by June 30? No 99¢ 99¢ $100 $100 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Jun 28 $60 −$60 -100%
Bank of Japan increases interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 m Jun 16 $100 +$1 +1%
Knicks vs. Spurs: O/U 217.5 Jun 14 $130 +$1 +1%
Knicks vs. Spurs: O/U 216.5 Jun 14 $120 +$1 +1%
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by May 31? Jun 14 $167 +$4 +3%
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31? Jun 14 $160 +$2 +2%
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by May 31? Jun 14 $170 +$2 +1%
Trump out as President by May 31? Jun 14 $195 +$2 +1%
Will Ethereum dip to $1,200 in April? May 06 $260 +$2 +1%
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on April May 06 $260 +$4 +2%
Will the Iranian regime fall by April 30? May 06 $311 +$3 +1%
DeepSeek V4 released by April 15? Apr 21 $122 +$1 +1%
Ethereum Up or Down on April 13? Apr 21 $190 +$2 +1%
Will BNB dip to $200 in March? Apr 13 $190 +$2 +1%
Will DeepSeek have the best AI model at the end of March 2026? Apr 13 $288 +$6 +2%
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by March 31? Apr 13 $350 +$2 +1%
Will the ECB announce no change at the March 2026 meeting? Mar 27 $340 +$3 +1%
Will Ethereum reach $2,700 March 2-8? Mar 12 $144 +$1 +1%
Nuclear weapon detonation by March 31? Mar 12 $180 +$10 +6%
Will Bitcoin dip to $74,000 January 26-1? Mar 03 $200 +$6 +3%
Will NVIDIA (NVDA) finish week of February 2 above $165? Mar 03 $270 +$5 +2%
Trump out as President by March 31? Feb 09 $330 +$1 +0%
Will Ethereum dip to $2,000 in January? Feb 02 $460 +$3 +1%
Will Elon Musk post 240+ tweets from January 12 to January 14, 2026? Jan 27 $200 +$1 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $78,000 January 12-18? Jan 27 $250 +$2 +1%
Will Bitcoin reach $170,000 by December 31, 2025? Jan 13 $255 +$2 +1%
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after December 2025 meeting? Jan 13 $505 +$5 +1%
Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 in November? Dec 02 $350 +$3 +1%
Will Ethereum dip to $2,200 in November? Dec 02 $410 +$1 +0%
Will Meta reach $870 in November? Nov 30 $400 +$3 +1%
Will the price of Ethereum be less than $4,100 on October 12? Nov 07 $40 $0 +1%
Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after October 2025 meeting? Nov 07 $400 +$45 +11%
Will the price of Ethereum be between $3900 and $4000 on August 21 at Sep 18 $212 +$1 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $125K August 4–10? Aug 21 $202 +$1 +1%
Will Ethereum reach $4200 August 4–10? Aug 07 $211 −$211 -100%
Will Ethereum dip to $1000 in July? Aug 07 $110 $0 +0%
No change in Fed interest rates after July 2025 meeting? Aug 07 $140 +$9 +6%
Will DeepSeek have the top AI model on July 31? Aug 07 $151 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down in Q2? Jul 12 $400 +$4 +1%
Will 'Final Destination: Bloodlines' gross less than $40m opening week Jun 12 $125 $0 +0%
Will Alibaba have the top AI model on May 31? Jun 12 $260 $0 +0%
Will Solana dip to $80 in April? May 18 $110 $0 +0%
Dogecoin all time high in April? May 18 $290 +$1 +0%
Will the ECB announce a 50+ bps decrease? Apr 25 $100 +$1 +1%
Will the AfD win less than 10% of the vote in the German election? Apr 17 $20 $0 +0%
Will China unban Bitcoin by March 31? Apr 17 $350 +$4 +1%
Will Bitcoin reach $200,000 by February 28, 2025? Mar 06 $348 +$1 +0%
Will Biden finish his term? Feb 11 $130 +$1 +1%
Will MicroStrategy hold 500k+ BTC before Trump inauguration? Feb 11 $88 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $200,000 by January 31, 2025? Feb 11 $250 +$2 +1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by June 30? BUY No 99¢ $100 1h
Will Ethereum dip to $1,100 in June? BUY No 99¢ $250 1h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY No 77¢ $60 14d
Bank of Japan increases interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 m BUY Yes 99¢ $100 14d
NATO x Russia military clash by June 30, 2026? BUY No 98¢ $155 14d
Will France, UK, or Germany strike Iran by June 30? BUY No 99¢ $170 14d
Knicks vs. Spurs: O/U 216.5 BUY Under 99¢ $120 14d
Knicks vs. Spurs: O/U 217.5 BUY Under 99¢ $130 14d
Putin out as President of Russia by June 30? SELL No 99¢ $198 14d
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31? BUY No 98¢ $160 31d
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by May 31? SELL No 100¢ $140 31d
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by May 31? BUY No 97¢ $167 52d
Putin out as President of Russia by June 30? BUY No 98¢ $300 52d
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by May 31? BUY No 99¢ $170 52d
Trump out as President by May 31? BUY No 99¢ $195 52d
Will the Iranian regime fall by April 30? BUY No 99¢ $311 68d
DeepSeek V4 released by April 15? BUY No 99¢ $122 75d
Will Ethereum dip to $1,200 in April? BUY No 99¢ $260 75d
Ethereum Up or Down on April 13? BUY Up 99¢ $190 75d
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on April BUY Yes 98¢ $260 75d
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by March 31? BUY No 99¢ $350 92d
Will the ECB announce no change at the March 2026 meeting? BUY Yes 99¢ $340 108d
Will BNB dip to $200 in March? BUY No 99¢ $190 117d
Will DeepSeek have the best AI model at the end of March 2026? BUY No 98¢ $288 117d
Will Ethereum reach $2,700 March 2-8? BUY No 99¢ $144 117d
Nuclear weapon detonation by March 31? BUY No 95¢ $180 117d
Trump out as President by March 31? SELL No 98¢ $331 138d
Will NVIDIA (NVDA) finish week of February 2 above $165? BUY Yes 98¢ $270 146d
Will Bitcoin dip to $74,000 January 26-1? BUY No 97¢ $200 146d
Will Ethereum dip to $2,000 in January? BUY No 99¢ $460 152d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $785.51 · official $785.51 (match) · 118 history records