Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T10:17:45+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
0F 0x0fb5…3095 politics 59 markets active 2h ago coverage 234d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$8 (-0%) realized −$8 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -7% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -16% what you keep after slip
Net edge-16%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate16%9W / 48L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$63per market
Trades / day0.6pace
Kalshi-fit85%portable
Net worth$66now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days−$0
30 days−$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 39% −$3
sports 26% −$2
other 11% −$2
crypto 9% $0
economics 5% −$1
culture 4% $0
tech 4% $0
world 2% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-16.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d 4 -0.1% -9.6% 25% 0% -9.6%
≤90d 5 -0.0% -9.5% 40% 0% -9.5%
all 57 -7.3% -16.1% 16% 0% -9.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.6 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -16.1% 0% -9.7%
10% -24.1% 0% -18.4%
15% -31.5% 0% -26.2%
20% -38.2% 0% -33.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 25% · top 2 39% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% too few recent
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -7% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -10% → late -5% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×0.57 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.11 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

234d coverage
Net worth$66
Realized−$8
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)16%
Wins / losses9 / 48
Open positions2
Markets (closed)57 / 59
History coverage234d
Avg bet$63
Trades / day0.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit85%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 57 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Chris Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? No 99¢ 99¢ $65 $65 −$0 (-0%)
Will Byron Donalds win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-17%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 3 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 9? Jun 10 $67 $0 +0%
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 07 $64 $0 -0%
Will Gina Raimondo win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 04 $65 $0 -0%
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 31 $66 $0 -0%
Will Greg Abbott win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 12 $67 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on March 3? Mar 06 $68 $0 +0%
Will xAI have the best AI model at the end of February 2026? Mar 01 $67 $0 +0%
Will the Indiana Pacers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Feb 15 $67 $0 -0%
US government shutdown Saturday? Feb 05 $66 $0 +0%
Will Silver (SI) hit (HIGH) $150 by end of January? Jan 31 $65 $0 +0%
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after January 2026 meeting? Jan 29 $132 $0 -0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $84,000 on January 26? Jan 26 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Trump nominate Jerome Powell as the next Fed chair? Jan 26 $66 $0 -0%
Will Australia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jan 24 $1 $0 -33%
Will George Clooney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jan 24 $65 $0 -0%
Will Roy Cooper win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jan 23 $68 $0 -0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $88,000 on January 19? Jan 21 $67 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $92,000 on January 17? Jan 18 $67 $0 +0%
Will Burnley win the 2025–26 English Premier League? Jan 16 $69 $0 -0%
Will Eintracht Frankfurt win the 2025–26 Champions League? Jan 14 $67 $0 -0%
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jan 12 $70 $0 -0%
Will Tottenham win the 2025–26 English Premier League? Jan 10 $67 $0 -0%
Another US strike on Venezuela on January 5? Jan 07 $69 $0 +0%
Will Michelle Obama win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jan 05 $65 $0 +0%
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jan 04 $3 $0 -11%
Will edgeX launch a token in 2025? Jan 03 $69 $0 +0%
Will West Ham win the 2025–26 English Premier League? Dec 30 $69 $0 -0%
Will Everton win the 2025–26 English Premier League? Dec 28 $67 $0 -0%
Will Slavia Pragu win the 2025–26 Champions League? Dec 25 $139 $0 -0%
Will Trump nominate Lorie K. Logan as the next Fed chair? Dec 23 $1 $0 -50%
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Dec 23 $65 $0 -0%
Will Raphael Warnock win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Dec 23 $75 $0 -0%
Will Jared Polis win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Dec 21 $69 $0 -0%
Will Greg Abbott win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Dec 20 $70 $0 -0%
Will LeBron James win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Dec 17 $73 $0 -0%
Will Crystal Palace win the 2025–26 English Premier League? Dec 16 $74 −$1 -1%
Will Cory Booker win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Dec 16 $70 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 by December 31, 2025? Dec 13 $69 $0 -0%
Will Hunter Biden win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Dec 10 $57 $0 -0%
Will Sporting win the 2025–26 Champions League? Dec 09 $71 $0 -0%
Will Mike Pence win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Dec 09 $68 $0 -0%
Will Phil Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Dec 06 $75 $0 -1%
Will Elon Musk win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Dec 05 $70 $0 -0%
Will the Cleveland Browns win Super Bowl 2026? Dec 02 $69 $0 +0%
Will Brighton win the 2025–26 English Premier League? Nov 30 $71 $0 -0%
Will Elon Musk post 460-479 tweets from November 21 to November 28, 20 Nov 26 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Jurassic World: Rebirth be the top grossing movie of 2025? Nov 25 $73 $0 -0%
Will Franco Parisi win the Chilean presidential election? Nov 19 $72 $0 -0%
Will Hillary Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Nov 17 $72 $0 -0%
Will the Brooklyn Nets win the 2026 NBA Finals? Nov 15 $148 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Chris Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $65 1h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 9? BUY No 100¢ $67 8d
Will Byron Donalds win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL Yes 1¢ $0 8d
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $64 10d
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $64 12d
Will Byron Donalds win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL Yes 1¢ $1 12d
Will Byron Donalds win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL Yes 1¢ $1 14d
Will Gina Raimondo win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $64 14d
Will Gina Raimondo win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $65 15d
Will Byron Donalds win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY Yes 1¢ $3 18d
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $66 18d
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $66 19d
Will Greg Abbott win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $67 37d
Will Greg Abbott win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $67 99d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on March 3? BUY No 100¢ $68 107d
Will xAI have the best AI model at the end of February 2026? BUY No 100¢ $67 111d
Will the Indiana Pacers win the 2026 NBA Finals? SELL No 100¢ $67 122d
Will the Indiana Pacers win the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY No 100¢ $67 126d
US government shutdown Saturday? BUY Yes 100¢ $66 136d
Will Silver (SI) hit (HIGH) $150 by end of January? BUY No 100¢ $65 138d
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after January 2026 meeting? BUY No 100¢ $65 141d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $84,000 on January 26? BUY No 0¢ $1 142d
Will Trump nominate Jerome Powell as the next Fed chair? SELL No 100¢ $66 142d
Will Trump nominate Jerome Powell as the next Fed chair? BUY No 100¢ $66 143d
Will Australia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 144d
Will George Clooney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $65 144d
Will George Clooney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 100¢ $65 145d
Will Australia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 145d
Will Australia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 0¢ $1 145d
Will Roy Cooper win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $68 145d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $65.73 · official $65.73 (match) · 241 history records