Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T13:24:46+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
0F 0x0fbc…d6a4 sports 129 markets active 1h ago coverage 138d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$6,885 (-11%) realized −$7,033 · open +$148
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR55%break-even
Win rate57%73W / 55L
Whale WR53%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$474per market
Trades / day1.7pace
Fees−$59est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$1,004now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$127
7 days−$127
14 days−$132
30 days−$132
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 100% −$6,778
crypto 0% −$5
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +55%
net ROI/market (all)-9.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 +8.0% -2.3% 50% 50% -13.9%
≤30d 3 -28.0% -34.9% 33% 33% -14.1%
≤90d 10 +1.6% -8.1% 60% 60% -12.9%
all 128 -0.2% -9.7% 57% 55% -19.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.7 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.7% 55% -19.9%
10% -18.3% 48% -27.6%
15% -26.2% 44% -34.6%
20% -33.5% 34% -41.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 15% · top 2 25% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
3% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -12% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 53% (≥$543) neutral
Persistence
early +42% → late -43% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$259 vs −$470 · ×0.55 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.73 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

138d coverage
Net worth$1,004
Realized−$7,033
Unrealized+$148
Win rate (resolved)57%
Wins / losses73 / 55
Whale WR (big bets)53%
Est. fees paid−$59
Open positions1
Markets (closed)128 / 129
History coverage138d
Avg bet$474
Trades / day1.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 128 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Counter-Strike: Sashi Esport vs Acend (BO3) - Super DraculaN Group A Acend 52¢ 61¢ $855 $1,004 +$148 (+17%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 2 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Dota 2: L1ga Team vs 4ikibamboni (BO3) - The International Europe Clos Jun 24 $1,615 −$747 -46%
Valorant: Riddle vs AGELITE (BO3) - VCL Japan Main Stage Jun 24 $995 +$620 +62%
LoL: RED Canids vs LOS (BO5) - Esports World Cup South America & LATAM Jun 14 $4 −$4 -98%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Atlanta Group B May 13 $100 −$99 -99%
LoL: G2 NORD vs E WIE EINFACH E-SPORTS (BO3) - Prime League 1st Divisi May 13 $6 −$6 -100%
Dota 2: ex-HEROIC vs Virtus.pro (BO3) - DreamLeague Group A May 13 $106 +$32 +30%
Dota 2: GamerLegion vs Vici Gaming (BO3) - DreamLeague Group A May 13 $79 +$27 +34%
Dota 2: Xtreme Gaming vs PlayTime (BO3) - DreamLeague Group B May 13 $43 +$36 +82%
Dota 2: Team Falcons vs Virtus.pro (BO3) - DreamLeague Group A May 13 $28 +$15 +53%
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs Aurora Gaming (BO3) - PGL Astana Group S May 13 $14 +$14 +101%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs Natus Vincere (BO3) - BLAST Open Rotte Mar 21 $456 −$456 -100%
Counter-Strike: FaZe vs TYLOO (BO3) - BLAST Open Rotterdam Group A Mar 20 $2,068 −$1,613 -78%
Dota 2: L1ga Team vs Zero Tenacity (BO3) - PREMIER SERIES Play-In Grou Mar 20 $1,060 +$1,008 +95%
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs TheMongolz (BO3) - BLAST Open Rotterdam Group Mar 20 $6,265 −$6,265 -100%
Suns vs. Spurs Mar 20 $1,999 −$1,999 -100%
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs NIP (BO3) - BLAST Open Rotterdam Group B Mar 19 $3,000 +$1,266 +42%
Clippers vs. Pelicans Mar 19 $971 −$971 -100%
Dota 2: AVULUS vs VP.Prodigy (BO3) - PREMIER SERIES Play-In Group A Mar 19 $874 −$874 -100%
Lakers vs. Rockets Mar 19 $2,000 +$1,874 +94%
Dota 2: Team Lynx vs L1ga Team (BO3) - CCT Playoffs Mar 18 $1,001 +$971 +97%
Counter-Strike: K27 vs Eternal Fire (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #18 Play Mar 18 $740 −$740 -100%
LoL: Gen.G vs BNK FEARX (BO5) - LCK Cup Playoffs Mar 18 $373 −$373 -100%
LoL: T1 vs Dplus KIA (BO5) - LCK Cup Playoffs Mar 18 $243 −$243 -100%
LoL: Team WE vs LNG Esports (BO5) - LPL Knights Rivals Mar 18 $106 −$106 -100%
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs Vitality (BO3) - PGL Cluj-Napoca Group Stage Mar 18 $277 −$277 -100%
Dota 2: Spirit Academy vs Rune Eaters (BO3) - European Pro League Grou Mar 18 $200 −$200 -100%
Dota 2: Tundra Esports vs PARIVISION (BO3) - DreamLeague Stage 2 Mar 18 $499 −$499 -100%
Valorant: Bilibili Gaming vs EDward Gaming (BO5) - VCT China Kickoff P Mar 18 $191 −$191 -100%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs TheMongolz (BO3) - PGL Cluj-Napoca Gr Mar 18 $81 −$81 -100%
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs KT Rolster Challengers (BO5) - LCK Ch Mar 18 $240 −$240 -100%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 (BO3) - PGL Cluj-Napoca Group Stag Mar 18 $648 −$648 -100%
Valorant: Rex Regum Qeon vs Paper Rex (BO5) - VCT Pacific Kickoff Play Mar 18 $126 −$126 -100%
Dota 2: yache123 vs Team Essence (BO3) - EPL World Series Southeast As Mar 18 $999 −$999 -100%
Dota 2: Team Falcons vs Team Liquid (BO5) - BLAST Slam Playoffs Mar 18 $524 −$524 -100%
Valorant: MIBR vs FURIA Esports (BO5) - VCT Americas Kickoff Playoffs Mar 18 $246 −$246 -100%
Dota 2: Cloud Dawning vs Ivory (BO3) - EPL World Series Southeast Asia Mar 18 $174 −$174 -100%
Dota 2: 1win vs AVULUS (BO3) - DreamLeague Division 2 Playoffs Mar 18 $99 −$99 -100%
Dota 2: Tundra Esports vs MOUZ - Game 2 Winner Mar 18 $35 −$35 -100%
Knicks vs. Clippers Mar 18 $760 −$760 -100%
Dota 2: Team Essence vs Aomqu and friends (BO3) - EPL World Series Sou Mar 18 $119 −$119 -100%
Dota 2: Team Liquid vs Aurora (BO3) - DreamLeague Playoffs Mar 18 $140 −$140 -100%
LoL: JD Gaming vs Bilibili Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs Mar 18 $365 −$365 -100%
Counter-Strike: SPARTA vs WW Team (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Group S Mar 18 $200 −$200 -100%
LoL: T1 Academy vs Nongshim Esports Academy (BO5) - LCK Challengers Le Mar 18 $300 −$300 -100%
Dota 2: PARIVISION vs Team Yandex (BO3) - PGL Wallachia Group Stage Mar 18 $1,001 −$1,001 -100%
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports Challengers vs DRX Challengers (BO5) - LCK Ch Mar 18 $324 −$324 -100%
Dota 2: Team Yandex vs Natus Vincere (BO5) - BLAST Slam Playoffs Mar 18 $263 −$263 -100%
Counter-Strike: TDK vs SPARTA (BO3) - ESL Challenger League Europe Cup Mar 18 $100 −$100 -100%
LoL: BNK FEARX vs Dplus KIA (BO5) - LCK Cup Playoffs Mar 18 $99 −$99 -100%
LoL: JD Gaming vs Top Esports (BO5) - LPL Playoffs Mar 18 $265 −$129 -49%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Counter-Strike: Sashi Esport vs Acend (BO3) - Super DraculaN Group A BUY Acend 52¢ $868 1h
Dota 2: L1ga Team vs 4ikibamboni (BO3) - The International Europe Clos SELL L1ga Team 38¢ $868 1h
Dota 2: L1ga Team vs 4ikibamboni (BO3) - The International Europe Clos BUY L1ga Team 68¢ $1,615 2h
Valorant: Riddle vs AGELITE (BO3) - VCL Japan Main Stage SELL Riddle 100¢ $1,615 3h
Valorant: Riddle vs AGELITE (BO3) - VCL Japan Main Stage BUY Riddle 61¢ $995 4h
LoL: RED Canids vs LOS (BO5) - Esports World Cup South America & LATAM BUY RED Canids 25¢ $4 9d
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Atlanta Group B BUY Natus Vincere 67¢ $100 41d
Dota 2: ex-HEROIC vs Virtus.pro (BO3) - DreamLeague Group A SELL Virtus.pro 100¢ $138 41d
Dota 2: ex-HEROIC vs Virtus.pro (BO3) - DreamLeague Group A BUY Virtus.pro 76¢ $106 41d
Dota 2: GamerLegion vs Vici Gaming (BO3) - DreamLeague Group A SELL Vici Gaming 100¢ $106 41d
Dota 2: GamerLegion vs Vici Gaming (BO3) - DreamLeague Group A BUY Vici Gaming 74¢ $79 41d
Dota 2: Xtreme Gaming vs PlayTime (BO3) - DreamLeague Group B SELL Xtreme Gaming 100¢ $79 41d
Dota 2: Xtreme Gaming vs PlayTime (BO3) - DreamLeague Group B BUY Xtreme Gaming 54¢ $43 41d
Dota 2: Team Falcons vs Virtus.pro (BO3) - DreamLeague Group A SELL Team Falcons 100¢ $43 41d
Dota 2: Team Falcons vs Virtus.pro (BO3) - DreamLeague Group A BUY Team Falcons 65¢ $28 41d
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs Aurora Gaming (BO3) - PGL Astana Group S SELL Aurora Gaming 100¢ $28 42d
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs Aurora Gaming (BO3) - PGL Astana Group S BUY Aurora Gaming 49¢ $14 42d
LoL: G2 NORD vs E WIE EINFACH E-SPORTS (BO3) - Prime League 1st Divisi BUY E WIE EINFACH E-SPORTS 30¢ $6 57d
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs Natus Vincere (BO3) - BLAST Open Rotte BUY Team Falcons 63¢ $456 95d
Counter-Strike: FaZe vs TYLOO (BO3) - BLAST Open Rotterdam Group A SELL FaZe 15¢ $456 95d
Counter-Strike: FaZe vs TYLOO (BO3) - BLAST Open Rotterdam Group A BUY FaZe 66¢ $2,068 95d
Dota 2: L1ga Team vs Zero Tenacity (BO3) - PREMIER SERIES Play-In Grou SELL L1ga Team 100¢ $2,068 96d
Dota 2: L1ga Team vs Zero Tenacity (BO3) - PREMIER SERIES Play-In Grou BUY L1ga Team 51¢ $1,060 96d
Suns vs. Spurs BUY Suns 21¢ $1,999 96d
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs TheMongolz (BO3) - BLAST Open Rotterdam Group BUY MOUZ 54¢ $1,999 96d
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs TheMongolz (BO3) - BLAST Open Rotterdam Group BUY MOUZ 81¢ $4,266 96d
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs NIP (BO3) - BLAST Open Rotterdam Group B SELL PARIVISION 100¢ $4,266 96d
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs NIP (BO3) - BLAST Open Rotterdam Group B BUY PARIVISION 70¢ $3,000 97d
Dota 2: AVULUS vs VP.Prodigy (BO3) - PREMIER SERIES Play-In Group A BUY AVULUS 63¢ $874 97d
Lakers vs. Rockets SELL Lakers 100¢ $3,874 97d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,003.65 · official $1,003.65 (match) · 282 history records