Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T03:36:32+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
0F 0x0fc0…a921 sports 112 markets active 2h ago coverage 65d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$263 (+4%) realized +$268 · open −$5
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -12% what you keep after slip
Net edge-12%after slip
Net WR39%break-even
Win rate41%44W / 63L
Drawdown94%max
Avg bet$66per market
Trades / day3.4pace
Fees−$70est.
Kalshi-fit70%portable
Net worth$79now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$1,602
7 days−$712
14 days−$646
30 days+$335
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 76% +$534
other 15% −$192
politics 9% −$5
crypto 0% −$6
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +39%
net ROI/market (all)-8.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 84 -33.7% -40.0% 33% 31% -22.6%
≤30d 107 +1.1% -8.5% 41% 39% -7.1%
≤90d 107 +1.1% -8.5% 41% 39% -7.1%
all 107 +1.1% -8.5% 41% 39% -7.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.4 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -8.5% 39% -7.1%
10% -17.3% 38% -16.0%
15% -25.3% 31% -24.1%
20% -32.6% 28% -31.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 9% · top 2 18% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +5% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
5% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +1% · $-wt +5% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +86% → late -83% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$64 vs −$39 · ×1.63 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.14 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

65d coverage
Net worth$79
Realized+$268
Unrealized−$5
Win rate (resolved)41%
Wins / losses44 / 63
Est. fees paid−$70
Open positions4
Markets (closed)107 / 112
History coverage65d
Avg bet$66
Trades / day3.4
Drawdown94%
Kalshi-fit70%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 107 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 19¢ 18¢ $39 $37 −$2 (-4%)
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 6¢ 6¢ $20 $20 +$0 (+0%)
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 2¢ $15 $17 +$2 (+11%)
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 0¢ $10 $5 −$5 (-50%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 7 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: O/U 0.5 Jun 19 $431 +$197 +46%
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: Mexico O/U 1.5 Jun 19 $41 −$40 -98%
Mexico leading at halftime? Jun 19 $38 −$37 -98%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $5 −$5 -97%
Will Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? Jun 18 $51 −$50 -98%
Switzerland leading at halftime? Jun 18 $10 −$10 -98%
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $6 −$6 -97%
Will Czechia vs. South Africa end in a draw? Jun 18 $28 +$22 +79%
Spread: Czechia (-1.5) Jun 18 $15 −$15 -97%
Exact Score: Czechia 2 - 0 South Africa? Jun 18 $15 −$15 -97%
Colombia leading at halftime? Jun 18 $14 +$12 +83%
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? AND Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $15 +$34 +224%
Ecuador to score first vs. Côte d'Ivoire? Jun 17 $5 −$5 -100%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: 1st Half O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 17 $6 −$6 -100%
Roland Garros WTA: Anna Kalinskaya vs Maja Chwalinska Jun 17 $11 −$11 -100%
United States vs. Paraguay: Both Teams to Score in First Half Jun 17 $3 −$3 -100%
Mexico vs. South Africa: Mexico 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $10 −$10 -100%
Mexico vs. South Africa: Mexico O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $10 −$10 -100%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 8.5 Jun 17 $5 −$5 -100%
HSBC Championships: Alex de Minaur vs Gabriel Diallo Jun 17 $5 −$5 -100%
Roland Garros ATP: Hubert Hurkacz vs Frances Tiafoe Jun 17 $5 −$5 -100%
Portugal leading at halftime? Jun 17 $20 −$20 -100%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $20 −$20 -100%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? Jun 17 $10 −$10 -100%
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $25 −$25 -100%
Will Jakub Mensik win the 2026 Roland Garros Men's Singles? Jun 17 $5 −$5 -100%
Austria vs. Jordan: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $10 −$10 -100%
Exact Score: Iraq 2 - 3 Norway? Jun 17 $5 −$5 -100%
Argentina vs. Algeria: Both Teams to Score Jun 17 $20 −$20 -100%
Exact Score: Germany 2 - 0 Curaçao? Jun 17 $5 −$5 -100%
Roland Garros ATP: Alex Michelsen vs Rafael Jodar Jun 17 $5 −$5 -100%
Roland Garros ATP: Juan Manuel Cerundolo vs Matteo Berrettini Jun 17 $5 −$5 -100%
Exact Score: Spain 3 - 0 Cabo Verde? Jun 17 $10 −$10 -100%
HSBC Championships: Iva Jovic vs Amanda Anisimova Jun 17 $35 −$35 -100%
Brandon Nakashima vs. Ignacio Buse: Total Sets O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $31 −$31 -100%
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $31 −$31 -100%
Exact Score: Germany 3 - 0 Curaçao? Jun 17 $15 −$15 -100%
Roland Garros ATP: Jakub Mensik vs Joao Fonseca Jun 17 $46 −$46 -100%
Exact Score: Germany 3 - 1 Curaçao? Jun 17 $20 −$20 -100%
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $15 −$15 -100%
Will Aryna Sabalenka win the 2026 Women’s French Open? Jun 17 $112 −$112 -100%
Roland Garros ATP: Francisco Cerundolo vs Hugo Gaston Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Roland Garros ATP: Frances Tiafoe vs Matteo Arnaldi Jun 17 $102 −$102 -100%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $132 −$132 -100%
Roland Garros ATP: Flavio Cobolli vs Alexander Zverev Jun 17 $61 −$61 -100%
Roland Garros ATP: Flavio Cobolli vs Zachary Svajda Jun 17 $41 +$1 +1%
Roland Garros ATP: Jakub Mensik vs Alexander Zverev Jun 17 $32 −$32 -100%
HSBC Championships: Brandon Nakashima vs Ignacio Buse Jun 17 $82 −$82 -100%
Roland Garros WTA: Aryna Sabalenka vs Naomi Osaka Jun 17 $102 −$102 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: O/U 0.5 BUY Over 68¢ $431 1h
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: Mexico O/U 1.5 BUY Over 45¢ $41 3h
Mexico leading at halftime? BUY Yes 36¢ $38 3h
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 1¢ $5 6h
Will Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? BUY Yes 34¢ $51 7h
Switzerland leading at halftime? BUY Yes 32¢ $10 8h
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 0¢ $6 9h
Will Czechia vs. South Africa end in a draw? SELL Yes 99¢ $31 9h
Spread: Czechia (-1.5) SELL Czechia 1¢ $1 9h
Will Czechia vs. South Africa end in a draw? BUY Yes 73¢ $23 9h
Will Czechia vs. South Africa end in a draw? SELL Yes 71¢ $20 9h
Will Czechia vs. South Africa end in a draw? BUY Yes 18¢ $5 10h
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 1¢ $15 12h
Exact Score: Czechia 2 - 0 South Africa? BUY Yes 12¢ $15 14h
Spread: Czechia (-1.5) BUY Czechia 28¢ $15 14h
Colombia leading at halftime? BUY Yes 54¢ $14 26h
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? AND Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? BUY 30¢ $15 29h
England vs. Croatia: O/U 5.5 SELL Over 100¢ $257 29h
England vs. Croatia: O/U 6.5 SELL Over 13¢ $3 29h
Will England win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 85¢ $42 29h
England vs. Croatia: O/U 6.5 BUY Over 43¢ $10 30h
England vs. Croatia: O/U 5.5 BUY Over 77¢ $101 30h
England vs. Croatia: O/U 5.5 BUY Over 78¢ $101 30h
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 50¢ $25 30h
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 16¢ $40 30h
England vs. Croatia: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 100¢ $104 30h
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 6¢ $15 30h
England vs. Croatia: O/U 1.5 SELL Over 100¢ $135 30h
England vs. Croatia: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 100¢ $230 30h
England vs. Croatia: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 50¢ $117 31h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $78.54 · official $78.54 (match) · 306 history records