Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T10:08:01+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
0F 0x0fc3…bcdf crypto 120 markets active 13h ago coverage 18d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$25 (-10%) realized −$24 · open −$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -14% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -29% what you keep after slip
Net edge-29%after slip
Net WR24%break-even
Win rate26%31W / 88L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$2per market
Trades / day16.0pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit94%portable
Net worth$2now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$2
7 days−$22
14 days−$34
30 days−$30
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 58% −$10
world 17% −$5
other 9% −$5
politics 6% −$2
tech 5% −$1
sports 2% −$6
finance 1% −$2
culture 0% $0
economics 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +24%
net ROI/market (all)-22.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 40 -29.1% -35.9% 10% 8% -28.2%
≤30d 119 -14.5% -22.6% 26% 24% -21.0%
≤90d 119 -14.5% -22.6% 26% 24% -21.0%
all 119 -14.5% -22.6% 26% 24% -21.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover16.0 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -22.6% 24% -21.0%
10% -30.0% 24% -28.6%
15% -36.8% 20% -35.5%
20% -43.0% 18% -41.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 24% · top 2 38% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -13% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
6% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -14% · $-wt -13% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -3% → late -26% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$1 · ×1.97 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.69 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

18d coverage
Net worth$2
Realized−$24
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)26%
Wins / losses31 / 88
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions1
Markets (closed)119 / 120
History coverage18d
Avg bet$2
Trades / day16.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit94%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 119 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Karen Bass win the first round of the 2026 Los Angeles Mayoral Election by 10–15%? Yes 1¢ 0¢ $3 $2 −$1 (-42%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 56 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Trump agree to withdraw troops from the Iranian region by June 30 Jun 16 $4 $0 -1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET Jun 16 $0 $0 -94%
Will the Republicans win the Wyoming Senate race in 2026? Jun 16 $5 $0 -2%
Will "Piece by Piece" be the top global Netflix movie this week? Jun 16 $1 $0 +4%
Will China invades Taiwan before GTA VI? Jun 16 $13 −$1 -7%
Will bitcoin hit $1m before GTA VI? Jun 16 $3 $0 -5%
Will Jesus Christ return before GTA VI? Jun 16 $11 −$1 -7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -94%
Will Andy Burnham win the 2026 Makerfield by-election? Jun 15 $1 $0 -11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET Jun 15 $1 +$2 +166%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET Jun 12 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET Jun 12 $2 +$6 +270%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET Jun 12 $1 −$1 -96%
2026 Balance of Power: R Senate, R House Jun 12 $1 $0 -12%
Will Steve Jurvetson be on-stage at a bell ceremony commemorating Spac Jun 12 $1 $0 -1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET Jun 11 $5 −$5 -96%
Will Trump say “Dana” or “White” 5+ times during UFC 250? Jun 11 $5 −$5 -91%
Will Russia test a nuclear weapon by September 30 2026? Jun 11 $6 $0 -8%
2026 Balance of Power: D Senate, D House Jun 11 $3 $0 -6%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026? Jun 11 $1 $0 -2%
Will Russia test a nuclear weapon by June 30 2026? Jun 11 $12 −$2 -13%
Will Trump say “Crazy” or “Amazing” 5+ times during UFC 250? Jun 11 $1 −$1 -98%
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Jun 11 $2 $0 -18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET Jun 11 $1 −$1 -76%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by August 31, 2026? Jun 11 $1 $0 -3%
Will PPI YoY be between 6.0% and 6.9% in May? Jun 11 $1 −$1 -95%
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Jun 11 $5 −$1 -13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET Jun 11 $1 +$1 +107%
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Jun 11 $1 $0 -40%
Will SpaceX’s opening share price on its first day of trading be at le Jun 10 $1 −$1 -98%
Screwworm National Emergency declared by June 30? Jun 10 $1 −$1 -91%
Next Mythos-Class Model released by July 31, 2026? Jun 10 $2 −$2 -79%
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 mee Jun 10 $1 $0 -0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET Jun 10 $1 −$1 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 7:25PM-7:30PM ET Jun 10 $1 −$1 -94%
Will SpaceX’s opening share price on its first day of trading be betwe Jun 10 $1 −$1 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET Jun 10 $1 $0 -12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET Jun 10 $2 −$2 -96%
Will Delcy Rodríguez be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? Jun 10 $1 $0 -7%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 12? Jun 10 $5 −$1 -14%
Will Iran close its airspace by June 9? Jun 09 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Google have the best Math AI model at the end of June 2026? Jun 09 $11 −$1 -12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET Jun 09 $1 −$1 -73%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET Jun 09 $2 −$1 -42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET Jun 09 $2 −$2 -80%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET Jun 09 $2 −$2 -73%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET Jun 09 $1 $0 +34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET Jun 09 $1 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET Jun 08 $2 −$1 -64%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET Jun 08 $1 +$1 +120%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Trump agree to withdraw troops from the Iranian region by June 30 SELL Yes 70¢ $4 12h
Will Trump agree to withdraw troops from the Iranian region by June 30 BUY Yes 71¢ $4 12h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET BUY Up 7¢ $0 12h
Will the Republicans win the Wyoming Senate race in 2026? SELL Yes 94¢ $5 12h
Will the Republicans win the Wyoming Senate race in 2026? BUY Yes 95¢ $5 12h
Will China invades Taiwan before GTA VI? SELL Yes 50¢ $2 14h
Will China invades Taiwan before GTA VI? BUY Yes 51¢ $3 14h
Will bitcoin hit $1m before GTA VI? SELL Yes 50¢ $2 14h
Will bitcoin hit $1m before GTA VI? BUY Yes 50¢ $3 14h
Will Jesus Christ return before GTA VI? SELL Yes 49¢ $10 14h
Will Jesus Christ return before GTA VI? BUY Yes 50¢ $11 14h
Will China invades Taiwan before GTA VI? SELL Yes 50¢ $10 14h
Will China invades Taiwan before GTA VI? BUY Yes 51¢ $10 14h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET BUY Up 9¢ $1 17h
Will Andy Burnham win the 2026 Makerfield by-election? SELL No 20¢ $1 37h
Will Andy Burnham win the 2026 Makerfield by-election? BUY No 21¢ $1 37h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET BUY Down 36¢ $1 38h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET BUY Down 1¢ $1 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET SELL Down 99¢ $8 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET BUY Down 27¢ $1 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET BUY Down 24¢ $1 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET BUY Down 36¢ $1 4d
2026 Balance of Power: R Senate, R House SELL Yes 17¢ $1 4d
Will Steve Jurvetson be on-stage at a bell ceremony commemorating Spac SELL Yes 99¢ $1 4d
Will Steve Jurvetson be on-stage at a bell ceremony commemorating Spac BUY Yes 100¢ $1 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET BUY Down 47¢ $4 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET BUY Down 38¢ $1 5d
Will Trump say “Dana” or “White” 5+ times during UFC 250? SELL Yes 19¢ $0 5d
Will Trump say “Dana” or “White” 5+ times during UFC 250? BUY Yes 89¢ $1 5d
Will Trump say “Dana” or “White” 5+ times during UFC 250? SELL Yes 11¢ $0 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1.73 · official $1.73 (match) · 307 history records