Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T21:35:50+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
0F 0x0fc4…189c other 22 markets active 2h ago coverage 130d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$104 (-31%) realized −$106 · open +$2
Gross ROI / mkt -64% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -68% what you keep after slip
Net edge-68%after slip
Net WR16%break-even
Win rate21%4W / 15L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$15per market
Trades / day0.3pace
Kalshi-fit14%portable
Net worth$134now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$7
7 days+$7
14 days+$7
30 days+$7
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 90% −$99
crypto 6% +$2
sports 4% −$5
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +16%
net ROI/market (all)-67.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 +72.4% +56.0% 100% 100% +56.0%
≤30d 1 +72.4% +56.0% 100% 100% +56.0%
≤90d 1 +72.4% +56.0% 100% 100% +56.0%
all 19 -64.1% -67.5% 21% 16% -52.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -67.5% 16% -52.6%
10% -70.6% 16% -57.1%
15% -73.4% 11% -61.3%
20% -76.1% 5% -65.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 45% · top 2 76% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +72% too few recent
Fragile wins
25% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -64% · $-wt -48% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -55% → late -73% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$8 vs −$9 · ×0.85 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.23 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

130d coverage
Net worth$134
Realized−$106
Unrealized+$2
Win rate (resolved)21%
Wins / losses4 / 15
Open positions3
Markets (closed)19 / 22
History coverage130d
Avg bet$15
Trades / day0.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit14%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 19 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Canada win on 2026-06-18? Yes 75¢ 76¢ $84 $86 +$1 (+2%)
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $20 $22 +$2 (+9%)
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 14¢ 13¢ $10 $9 −$1 (-8%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $10 +$7 +71%
Bad Bunny video becomes most viewed SB halftime on YouTube in 1st mont Mar 14 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Johannes Lochner (GER) win the gold medal for Winter Olympics 202 Feb 28 $15 −$15 -100%
Will United States win the Men's Ice Hockey gold medal at the 2026 Win Feb 28 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Canada win the Men's Ice Hockey gold medal at the 2026 Winter Oly Feb 28 $49 −$49 -100%
Will Italy win the most gold medals in the 2026 Winter Olympics? Feb 28 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Norway win the most gold medals in the 2026 Winter Olympics? Feb 28 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Manchester City win the 2025–26 English Premier League? Feb 22 $8 $0 +2%
Will Johannes Lochner (GER) win the gold medal for Winter Olympics 202 Feb 18 $5 −$5 -100%
Will the 2026 Bad Bunny Super Bowl halftime show video get between 100 Feb 17 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Melissa Lotholz (CAN) win the gold medal for Winter Olympics 2026 Feb 15 $5 −$5 -91%
Will "DtMF" be played first at the Super Bowl halftime show? Feb 09 $5 −$5 -100%
Will "BAILE INOLVIDABLE" be played first at the Super Bowl halftime sh Feb 09 $16 −$16 -100%
Will "Tití Me Preguntó" be played first at the Super Bowl halftime sho Feb 09 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Seattle beat New England in Super Bowl LX? Feb 09 $20 +$9 +46%
Will Jason Myers win the Super Bowl LX MVP? Feb 09 $5 −$2 -36%
Big Game: Scorigami? Feb 09 $5 −$2 -50%
Will Sam Darnold win the Super Bowl LX MVP? Feb 09 $40 +$14 +34%
Patriots Team Total: O/U 15.5 Feb 09 $5 −$5 -97%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Canada win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 75¢ $75 1h
Will Canada win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 77¢ $10 23h
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 58¢ $10 27h
Will Canada win the Men's Ice Hockey gold medal at the 2026 Winter Oly BUY Yes 45¢ $9 116d
Will Manchester City win the 2025–26 English Premier League? SELL Yes 41¢ $8 116d
Will Manchester City win the 2025–26 English Premier League? BUY Yes 40¢ $8 119d
Will Canada win the Men's Ice Hockey gold medal at the 2026 Winter Oly BUY Yes 52¢ $15 119d
Will Canada win the Men's Ice Hockey gold medal at the 2026 Winter Oly BUY Yes 56¢ $20 122d
Will Italy win the most gold medals in the 2026 Winter Olympics? BUY Yes $1 123d
Will Norway win the most gold medals in the 2026 Winter Olympics? BUY No $10 123d
Will Canada win the Men's Ice Hockey gold medal at the 2026 Winter Oly BUY Yes 57¢ $5 123d
Will United States win the Men's Ice Hockey gold medal at the 2026 Win BUY No 72¢ $5 123d
Will Melissa Lotholz (CAN) win the gold medal for Winter Olympics 2026 SELL Yes $0 123d
Will Johannes Lochner (GER) win the gold medal for Winter Olympics 202 BUY No 50¢ $15 123d
Will Johannes Lochner (GER) win the gold medal for Winter Olympics 202 BUY No 50¢ $5 123d
Will the 2026 Bad Bunny Super Bowl halftime show video get between 100 BUY Yes 31¢ $5 127d
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 14¢ $10 127d
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $20 127d
Will Jason Myers win the Super Bowl LX MVP? SELL Yes $3 129d
Big Game: Scorigami? SELL Yes $3 129d
Big Game: Scorigami? BUY Yes 18¢ $5 129d
Will Sam Darnold win the Super Bowl LX MVP? SELL No 72¢ $54 129d
Will Jason Myers win the Super Bowl LX MVP? BUY Yes 10¢ $5 129d
Patriots Team Total: O/U 15.5 SELL Over $0 129d
Will Melissa Lotholz (CAN) win the gold medal for Winter Olympics 2026 BUY Yes 11¢ $5 129d
Will Sam Darnold win the Super Bowl LX MVP? BUY No 53¢ $20 129d
Will Sam Darnold win the Super Bowl LX MVP? BUY No 54¢ $20 129d
Will Seattle beat New England in Super Bowl LX? BUY Yes 68¢ $20 129d
Will "DtMF" be played first at the Super Bowl halftime show? BUY Yes 88¢ $5 129d
Will "Tití Me Preguntó" be played first at the Super Bowl halftime sho BUY No 33¢ $5 129d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $133.71 · official $133.71 (match) · 175 history records