trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?
| timeframe | markets | gross ROI | NET ROI | gross WR | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ≤7d | 7 | -2.9% | -12.1% | 29% | 14% | -11.3% |
| ≤30d | 10 | -2.2% | -11.5% | 30% | 10% | -10.8% |
| ≤90d | 20 | -0.9% | -10.3% | 40% | 5% | -9.8% |
| all | 21 | -5.6% | -14.6% | 38% | 5% | -10.7% |
| copier slippage | NET ROI | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5% ideal ← realistic here | -14.6% | 5% | -10.7% |
| 10% | -22.8% | 0% | -19.3% |
| 15% | -30.2% | 0% | -27.1% |
| 20% | -37.1% | 0% | -34.2% |
| Market | outcome | entry | now | invested | value | unrealized PnL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026? | No | 83¢ | 81¢ | $33 | $33 | −$1 (-2%) |
| Will J.D. Vance win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? | Yes | 37¢ | 38¢ | $0 | $0 | +$0 (+5%) |
| Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election? | No | 41¢ | 44¢ | $0 | $0 | +$0 (+9%) |
| Market | when | invested | PnL | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? | Jun 18 | $6 | $0 | +0% |
| Israel closes its airspace by June 30? | Jun 17 | $33 | $0 | +1% |
| Will Itamar Ben Gvir be the next Prime Minister of Israel? | Jun 17 | $1 | $0 | -18% |
| Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? | Jun 13 | $11 | +$1 | +12% |
| US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? | Jun 13 | $55 | $0 | +0% |
| Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? | Jun 12 | $39 | −$4 | -9% |
| Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra | Jun 12 | $15 | −$1 | -5% |
| Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra | Jun 09 | $36 | −$1 | -2% |
| Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? | Jun 09 | $40 | $0 | +0% |
| Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? | Jun 08 | $36 | $0 | +0% |
| Will the All India Anna Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam (ADMK) win the most | Apr 26 | $50 | +$2 | +4% |
| Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of April 2026? | Apr 23 | $45 | $0 | +1% |
| Will Elon Musk post 1160-1199 tweets in April 2026? | Apr 21 | $45 | $0 | -0% |
| Will MegaETH perform an airdrop by June 30? | Apr 18 | $43 | −$1 | -3% |
| Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino finish in second place in the first roun | Apr 18 | $47 | −$1 | -3% |
| Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | Apr 02 | $90 | $0 | +0% |
| Will Ronaldo Caiado win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? | Apr 02 | $224 | $0 | +0% |
| Will JB Pritzker win the 2028 US Presidential Election? | Apr 01 | $223 | $0 | +0% |
| Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? | Mar 30 | $26 | +$1 | +2% |
| Will Pittsburgh Pirates win the 2026 National League Championship Seri | Mar 30 | $13 | $0 | +4% |
| St. Francis (PA) vs. Le-Moyne | Mar 20 | $12 | −$12 | -100% |