Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T14:06:26+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
0F 0x0fce…63d5 sports 492 markets active 0h ago coverage 65d ⚠
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable sports specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 65d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$5,350 (-7%) realized −$4,887 · open −$463
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -26% what you keep after slip
Net edge-26%after slip
Net WR28%break-even
Win rate32%140W / 300L
Whale WR44%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$164per market
Trades / day49.7pace
Fees−$785est.
Kalshi-fit78%portable
Net worth$37,214now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 65d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 85% +$81
other 15% −$2,826
world 0% −$3
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +28%
net ROI/market (all)-12.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 266 -49.2% -54.0% 24% 20% -40.6%
≤30d 267 -41.5% -47.1% 25% 20% -40.5%
≤90d 440 -3.8% -12.9% 32% 28% -38.0%
all 440 -3.8% -12.9% 32% 28% -38.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover49.7 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -12.9% 28% -38.0%
10% ← realistic here -21.3% 25% -43.9%
15% -28.9% 22% -49.3%
20% -35.9% 19% -54.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 9% · top 2 17% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -30% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
11% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -4% · $-wt -30% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 44% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early +65% → late -73% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
6.6 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$95 vs −$102 · ×0.93 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.43 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

65d coverage
Net worth$37,214
Realized−$4,887
Unrealized−$463
Win rate (resolved)32%
Wins / losses140 / 300
Whale WR (big bets)44%
Est. fees paid−$785
Open positions211
Markets (closed)440 / 492
History coverage65d ⚠
Avg bet$164
Trades / day49.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit78%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 211 History 440 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) DR Congo 47¢ 46¢ $17,362 $16,873 −$489 (-3%)
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-17? No 93¢ 92¢ $2,724 $2,709 −$15 (-1%)
Will France vs. Iraq end in a draw? No 91¢ 90¢ $2,105 $2,093 −$12 (-1%)
Spread: DR Congo (-2.5) Portugal 99¢ 100¢ $1,677 $1,685 +$7 (+0%)
Spread: Portugal (-2.5) DR Congo 71¢ 70¢ $1,363 $1,361 −$2 (-0%)
Spread: DR Congo (-1.5) Portugal 98¢ 99¢ $1,101 $1,106 +$5 (+0%)
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 2.5 Over 49¢ 50¢ $1,017 $1,047 +$31 (+3%)
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? No 83¢ 84¢ $873 $878 +$5 (+1%)
Spread: Canada (-3.5) Qatar 86¢ 86¢ $701 $705 +$4 (+1%)
Spread: Canada (-1.5) Qatar 48¢ 48¢ $628 $635 +$7 (+1%)
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 Under 46¢ 46¢ $617 $611 −$7 (-1%)
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? Yes 71¢ 72¢ $551 $555 +$4 (+1%)
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? No 57¢ 60¢ $481 $500 +$19 (+4%)
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-20? No 96¢ 96¢ $367 $367 −$1 (-0%)
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? No 24¢ 24¢ $298 $291 −$6 (-2%)
Will Haiti win on 2026-06-19? No 96¢ 96¢ $268 $269 +$1 (+0%)
Will Australia win on 2026-06-19? Yes 18¢ 18¢ $234 $240 +$6 (+3%)
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? No 52¢ 52¢ $235 $237 +$2 (+1%)
Spread: Ghana (-1.5) Panama 82¢ 81¢ $234 $233 −$0 (-0%)
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? No 37¢ 38¢ $207 $210 +$3 (+1%)
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? No 76¢ 76¢ $202 $203 +$1 (+1%)
Spread: Arizona Diamondbacks (-1.5) Los Angeles Angels 56¢ 56¢ $199 $197 −$2 (-1%)
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 0.5 Over 93¢ 94¢ $182 $183 +$1 (+1%)
DR Congo leading at halftime? No 92¢ 92¢ $175 $176 +$1 (+1%)
Will Austria win on 2026-06-27? No 58¢ 62¢ $158 $166 +$8 (+5%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 270 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
UFC Fight Night: Mandel Nallo vs. Jai Herbert (Lightweight, Main Card) Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Xander Schauffele win the 2026 Masters tournament? Jun 17 $3 −$3 -100%
Will the Colorado Avalanche win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? Jun 17 $17 −$17 -100%
Timberwolves vs. Pacers Jun 17 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Orlando City SC win on 2026-04-12? Jun 17 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Parma Calcio 1913 win on 2026-04-12? Jun 17 $49 −$49 -100%
Spread: Warriors (-10.5) Jun 17 $22 −$22 -100%
Will Sunderland AFC vs. Tottenham Hotspur FC end in a draw? Jun 17 $73 −$73 -100%
Sharks vs. Ducks Jun 17 $17 −$17 -100%
Will Inter Miami CF win on 2026-04-11? Jun 17 $52 −$52 -100%
Will Scottie Scheffler win the 2026 Masters tournament? Jun 17 $12 −$12 -100%
Will Brentford FC win on 2026-04-11? Jun 17 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Barcelona win the 2025–26 Champions League? Jun 17 $108 −$108 -100%
Will Chelsea FC vs. Manchester City FC end in a draw? Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Bologna FC 1909 win on 2026-04-12? Jun 17 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Rory McIlroy win the 2026 Masters tournament? Jun 17 $720 −$720 -100%
Will Austin FC win on 2026-04-11? Jun 17 $17 −$17 -100%
Will West Ham United FC win on 2026-04-10? Jun 17 $16 −$16 -100%
Madrid: Arantxa Rus vs Carol Young Suh Lee Jun 17 $4 −$4 -100%
Will AS Monaco FC win on 2026-04-10? Jun 17 $164 −$164 -100%
Will FC Bayern München win on 2026-04-11? Jun 17 $7 −$7 -100%
Athletics vs. New York Yankees Jun 17 $36 −$36 -100%
Will St. Louis City SC win on 2026-04-11? Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Rolex Monte Carlo Masters: Francisco Cerundolo vs Tomas Machac Jun 17 $48 −$48 -100%
Los Angeles Angels vs. Cincinnati Reds: O/U 8.5 Jun 17 $7 −$7 -100%
Spread: Real Madrid CF (-2.5) Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Will West Ham United FC vs. Wolverhampton Wanderers FC end in a draw? Jun 17 $7 −$7 -100%
Will Nottingham Forest FC win on 2026-04-12? Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Campinas: Guido Justo vs Victor Remondy Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Spread: Thunder (-15.5) Jun 17 $7 −$7 -100%
Will Burnley FC win on 2026-04-11? Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-04-14? Jun 17 $3,203 −$3,203 -100%
Will Torino FC vs. Hellas Verona FC end in a draw? Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Madrid: Calvin Hemery vs Alex Martinez Jun 17 $6 −$6 -100%
Will AC Milan win on 2026-04-11? Jun 17 $512 −$512 -100%
Will Real Madrid CF vs. FC Bayern München end in a draw? Jun 17 $47 −$47 -100%
Club Alianza Atlético vs. CA Tigre: O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $124 −$124 -100%
Will Pisa SC win on 2026-04-10? Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Sam Burns win the 2026 Masters tournament? Jun 17 $8 −$8 -100%
Will Real Madrid CF win on 2026-04-07? Jun 17 $45 −$45 -100%
Sarasota: Darwin Blanch vs Federico Agustin Gomez Jun 17 $13 −$13 -100%
Panthers vs. Maple Leafs Jun 17 $117 −$117 -100%
Will FC Cincinnati win on 2026-04-11? Jun 17 $91 −$91 -100%
Spread: Chicago Cubs (-1.5) Jun 17 $10 −$10 -100%
Will CD Tolima vs. Club Universitario de Deportes end in a draw? Jun 17 $18 −$18 -100%
SC Braga vs. Real Betis Balompié: O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $6 −$6 -100%
Will Philadelphia Union win on 2026-04-11? Jun 17 $4 −$4 -100%
Will Justin Rose win the 2026 Masters tournament? Jun 17 $243 −$243 -100%
Canucks vs. Sharks Jun 17 $356 −$356 -100%
Will CA Osasuna win on 2026-04-12? Jun 17 $5 −$5 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) BUY DR Congo 46¢ $4 2m
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) BUY DR Congo 46¢ $3 2m
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) BUY DR Congo 46¢ $7 2m
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) BUY DR Congo 46¢ $29 2m
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) BUY DR Congo 46¢ $6 2m
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) BUY DR Congo 46¢ $2 2m
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) BUY DR Congo 46¢ $15 2m
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) BUY DR Congo 46¢ $16 2m
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) BUY DR Congo 46¢ $11 2m
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) BUY DR Congo 46¢ $13 2m
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) BUY DR Congo 46¢ $18 2m
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) BUY DR Congo 46¢ $2 2m
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) BUY DR Congo 46¢ $29 2m
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) BUY DR Congo 46¢ $33 3m
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) BUY DR Congo 46¢ $31 3m
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) BUY DR Congo 46¢ $17 3m
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) BUY DR Congo 46¢ $33 3m
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) BUY DR Congo 46¢ $43 3m
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) BUY DR Congo 46¢ $52 3m
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) BUY DR Congo 46¢ $50 3m
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) BUY DR Congo 46¢ $34 3m
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) BUY DR Congo 46¢ $32 3m
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) BUY DR Congo 46¢ $69 3m
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) BUY DR Congo 46¢ $14 3m
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) BUY DR Congo 46¢ $79 3m
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) BUY DR Congo 46¢ $81 3m
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) BUY DR Congo 46¢ $96 3m
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) BUY DR Congo 46¢ $154 3m
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) BUY DR Congo 46¢ $122 3m
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) BUY DR Congo 46¢ $83 3m
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $37,213.51 · official $37,213.31 (match) · 3500 history records