Wallet analysis

2026-06-27T09:43:14+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5
score
0F 0x0fd4…85f0 politics 7 markets active 1h ago coverage 76d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real
Total PnL +$23 (+7%) realized +$22 · open +$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +19% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +8% what you keep after slip
Net edge+8%after slip
Net WR75%break-even
Win rate75%3W / 1L
Drawdown93%max
Avg bet$49per market
Trades / day0.1pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit71%portable
Net worth$61now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 76d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 36% +$86
other 33% −$82
politics 31% +$17
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +75%
net ROI/market (all)+7.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d 2 -25.8% -32.9% 50% 50% -49.5%
≤90d 4 +19.2% +7.9% 75% 75% -2.8%
all 4 +19.2% +7.9% 75% 75% -2.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +7.9% 75% -2.8%
10% -2.5% 75% -12.1%
15% -11.9% 25% -20.6%
20% -20.5% 25% -28.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 70% · top 2 86% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +7% too few recent
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +19% · $-wt +7% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$34 vs −$81 · ×0.42 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.25 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

76d coverage
Net worth$61
Realized+$22
Unrealized+$1
Win rate (resolved)75%
Wins / losses3 / 1
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions3
Markets (closed)4 / 7
History coverage76d
Avg bet$49
Trades / day0.1
Drawdown93%
Kalshi-fit71%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 4 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Sorin Grindeanu be the next Prime Minister of Romania? No 61¢ 63¢ $40 $41 +$1 (+3%)
Will the Republican Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections? No 83¢ 82¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-1%)
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-07-01? Yes 11¢ 10¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-5%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC vs. Arsenal FC end in a draw? May 30 $50 +$15 +29%
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-05-30? May 30 $101 −$81 -80%
Will Arsenal win the 2025–26 English Premier League? May 24 $72 +$72 +100%
Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Péter Magyar? Apr 13 $56 +$16 +28%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $60.69 · official $60.70 (match) · 11 history records