Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T17:09:15+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
0F 0x0fd8…85de other 265 markets active 2h ago coverage 140d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$83 (-0%) realized −$83 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -17% what you keep after slip
Net edge-17%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate5%13W / 252L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$208per market
Trades / day10.1pace
Fees−$7est.
Kalshi-fit62%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$8
7 days−$19
14 days−$26
30 days−$39
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 46% −$43
sports 19% −$17
politics 9% −$8
crypto 7% −$8
economics 7% −$7
culture 6% −$6
world 4% −$5
tech 2% $0
finance 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 29 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤30d 67 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤90d 182 -0.2% -9.7% 2% 0% -9.7%
all 265 -0.2% -9.7% 5% 0% -9.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover10.1 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.7% 0% -9.7%
10% -18.3% 0% -18.3%
15% -26.2% 0% -26.2%
20% -33.5% 0% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 21% · top 2 38% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -0% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.5 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×0.56 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.03 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

140d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$83
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)5%
Wins / losses13 / 252
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$7
Open positions0
Markets (closed)265 / 265
History coverage140d
Avg bet$208
Trades / day10.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit62%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 265 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2026? Jun 15 $632 −$1 -0%
Will Charlie Kirk win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 15 $281 $0 -0%
Will Romeu Zema win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 15 $159 $0 -0%
Will the Green Bay Packers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 14 $247 −$1 -0%
Will Oscar Piastri be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 14 $369 −$1 -0%
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 14 $895 −$1 -0%
Will Charlotte FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 14 $184 $0 -0%
Will 12 or more Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 14 $724 −$1 -0%
Will Uruguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 13 $755 −$2 -0%
Will the New York Giants win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 13 $332 −$1 -0%
Will Max Verstappen be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 13 $98 $0 -0%
Will Lewis Hamilton be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 13 $140 $0 -0%
Will 5 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 13 $293 −$1 -0%
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 12 $372 $0 -0%
Will New York Red Bulls win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 12 $205 $0 -0%
Will Eduardo Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 11 $414 $0 -0%
Will the Denver Broncos win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 11 $58 $0 -0%
Will the Houston Astros win the 2026 World Series? Jun 11 $742 −$1 -0%
Will the Cincinnati Reds win the 2026 World Series? Jun 11 $404 −$1 -0%
Will the Dallas Cowboys win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 11 $120 $0 -0%
Will 4 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 11 $237 $0 -0%
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 10 $711 −$1 -0%
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 10 $336 $0 -0%
Xi Jinping out by June 30? Jun 10 $536 −$1 -0%
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 10 $225 $0 -0%
Will the Chicago Bears win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 09 $144 $0 -0%
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 09 $461 −$1 -0%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Jun 09 $492 −$1 -0%
Will Julian Assange win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 08 $413 −$1 -0%
Will Michelle Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 08 $303 −$1 -0%
Will the Kansas City Royals win the 2026 World Series? Jun 08 $423 −$1 -0%
Will the Texas Rangers win the 2026 World Series? Jun 07 $308 −$1 -0%
Will 8 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 07 $317 $0 -0%
Will the Carolina Panthers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 07 $135 $0 -0%
Will the Pittsburgh Pirates win the 2026 World Series? Jun 06 $188 $0 -0%
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 06 $241 $0 -0%
Will Xi Jinping win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 06 $551 −$1 -0%
Will Tarcisio de Freitas win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 06 $318 $0 -0%
Will the Boston Red Sox win the 2026 World Series? Jun 05 $337 $0 -0%
Will 6 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 05 $554 −$1 -0%
Will the Detroit Tigers win the 2026 World Series? Jun 03 $191 $0 -0%
Will the San Diego Padres win the 2026 World Series? Jun 03 $198 $0 -0%
Will the Miami Dolphins win the 2027 NFL league championship? May 31 $64 $0 -0%
Will the Baltimore Orioles win the 2026 World Series? May 31 $851 −$1 -0%
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? May 31 $290 $0 -0%
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 30 $476 −$1 -0%
Will Elon Musk win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? May 30 $318 −$1 -0%
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 30 $282 $0 -0%
Will Recep Tayyip Erdoğan win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? May 29 $65 $0 -0%
Will the Jacksonville Jaguars win the 2027 NFL league championship? May 29 $65 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2026? SELL No 98¢ $56 2h
Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2026? BUY No 99¢ $56 3h
Will Charlie Kirk win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? SELL No 99¢ $56 8h
Will Charlie Kirk win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? BUY No 99¢ $56 10h
Will Romeu Zema win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL No 98¢ $56 14h
Will Romeu Zema win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY No 98¢ $56 15h
Will the Green Bay Packers win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 97¢ $12 21h
Will the Green Bay Packers win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 97¢ $12 23h
Will Oscar Piastri be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 99¢ $56 24h
Will Oscar Piastri be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 99¢ $57 25h
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 99¢ $57 30h
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 99¢ $57 32h
Will Charlotte FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? SELL No 99¢ $57 33h
Will Charlotte FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? BUY No 99¢ $57 35h
Will 12 or more Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $57 36h
Will 12 or more Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $57 37h
Will Uruguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 99¢ $57 42h
Will Uruguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 99¢ $57 44h
Will the New York Giants win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 99¢ $57 45h
Will the New York Giants win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 99¢ $57 47h
Will Max Verstappen be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 97¢ $57 2d
Will Max Verstappen be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 97¢ $57 2d
Will Lewis Hamilton be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 97¢ $57 2d
Will Lewis Hamilton be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 97¢ $57 2d
Will 5 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $57 2d
Will 5 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $57 2d
Will Oscar Piastri be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 99¢ $57 2d
Will Oscar Piastri be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 99¢ $57 2d
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $57 3d
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $57 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 1499 history records