Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T19:00:48+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
0F 0x0fdb…88ca crypto 25 markets active 4d ago coverage 1d
BOTnot copyable crypto specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ bot/MM pace (161 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit from just two bets (not replicable)✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! limited sample (<25 closed)! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$80 (-13%) realized −$74 · open −$6
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -62% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -71% what you keep after slip
Net edge-71%after slip
Net WR21%break-even
Win rate25%6W / 18L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$25per market
Trades / day161.0pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$4now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$107
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (161 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +21%
net ROI/market (all)-65.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 24 -62.3% -65.9% 25% 21% -31.5%
≤30d 24 -62.3% -65.9% 25% 21% -31.5%
≤90d 24 -62.3% -65.9% 25% 21% -31.5%
all 24 -62.3% -65.9% 25% 21% -31.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover161.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -65.9% 21% -31.5%
10% ← realistic here -69.2% 21% -38.0%
15% -72.1% 12% -44.0%
20% -74.9% 12% -49.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 40% · top 2 70% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -24% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
17% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -62% · $-wt -24% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -44% → late -81% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
6.1 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$17 vs −$11 · ×1.51 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.5 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$4
Realized−$74
Unrealized−$6
Win rate (resolved)25%
Wins / losses6 / 18
Open positions1
Markets (closed)24 / 25
History coverage1d
Avg bet$25
Trades / day161.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 24 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Bitcoin reach $80,000 in June? Yes 2¢ 1¢ $9 $4 −$6 (-61%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 17 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET Jun 14 $2 −$2 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET Jun 14 $21 −$20 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET Jun 14 $27 −$1 -4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET Jun 14 $15 +$5 +30%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET Jun 14 $6 −$6 -94%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET Jun 14 $3 −$3 -94%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET Jun 13 $1 −$1 -94%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET Jun 13 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET Jun 13 $61 −$60 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET Jun 13 $62 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET Jun 13 $51 −$1 -2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET Jun 13 $32 −$31 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET Jun 13 $22 −$21 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET Jun 13 $36 +$30 +84%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET Jun 13 $14 −$13 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET Jun 13 $57 +$41 +73%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET Jun 13 $62 −$7 -11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET Jun 13 $37 −$11 -30%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET Jun 13 $32 −$1 -3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET Jun 13 $22 +$18 +83%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET Jun 13 $6 −$6 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET Jun 13 $19 −$18 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET Jun 13 $23 +$8 +34%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Bitcoin reach $80,000 in June? BUY Yes 2¢ $10 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET BUY Up 2¢ $1 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET BUY Up 9¢ $1 4d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET BUY Up 1¢ $1 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET BUY Up 54¢ $5 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET BUY Up 50¢ $5 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET BUY Up 50¢ $5 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET BUY Up 45¢ $5 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET SELL Up 99¢ $33 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET BUY Up 98¢ $5 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET BUY Up 88¢ $5 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET BUY Up 77¢ $5 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET BUY Up 70¢ $5 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET BUY Down 40¢ $1 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET BUY Up 66¢ $5 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET BUY Up 68¢ $1 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET SELL Up 99¢ $20 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET BUY Up 79¢ $5 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET BUY Up 80¢ $5 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET BUY Up 67¢ $5 4d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET BUY Down 2¢ $1 4d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET BUY Down 3¢ $1 4d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET BUY Down 4¢ $1 4d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET BUY Down 6¢ $1 4d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET BUY Down 5¢ $2 4d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET BUY Up 1¢ $1 4d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET BUY Up 2¢ $1 4d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET BUY Up 6¢ $1 4d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET BUY Up 7¢ $1 4d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET BUY Up 1¢ $1 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $3.74 · official $3.74 (match) · 165 history records