Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T14:44:16+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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0F 0x0fde…0258 sports 1951 markets active 0h ago coverage 52d ⚠
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable sports specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 52d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL +$4,286 (+7%) realized +$4,269 · open +$17
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -6% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -28% what you keep after slip
Net edge-28%after slip
Net WR49%break-even
Win rate49%1013W / 1038L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$32per market
Trades / day46.8pace
Fees−$813est.
Kalshi-fit96%portable
Net worth$95now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 52d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 96% +$2,800
other 4% −$152
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +49%
net ROI/market (all)-14.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 516 -54.8% -59.1% 23% 23% -35.5%
≤30d 1183 -9.2% -17.8% 48% 47% -17.2%
≤90d 2051 -5.8% -14.8% 49% 49% -14.3%
all 2051 -5.8% -14.8% 49% 49% -14.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover46.8 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -14.8% 49% -14.3%
10% ← realistic here -22.9% 47% -22.5%
15% -30.4% 43% -30.0%
20% -37.2% 38% -36.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 1% · top 2 2% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -5% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
2% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -6% · $-wt -5% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -1% → late -11% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$24 vs −$27 · ×0.9 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.88 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

52d coverage
Net worth$95
Realized+$4,269
Unrealized+$17
Win rate (resolved)49%
Wins / losses1013 / 1038
Est. fees paid−$813
Open positions3
Markets (closed)2051 / 1951
History coverage52d ⚠
Avg bet$32
Trades / day46.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit96%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 2051 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
LoL: Saigon Warriors vs Top Esports Challenger (BO3) - Asia Masters Last Chance Qualifier Top Esports Challenger 46¢ 100¢ $19 $41 +$22 (+117%)
Counter-Strike: Bebop vs RUSTEC (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Group Stage Bebop 49¢ 100¢ $20 $40 +$20 (+104%)
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BetBoom Team 44¢ 44¢ $12 $12 +$0 (+1%)
Counter-Strike: Bebop vs RUSTEC (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Group Stage RUSTEC 43¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 496 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Sonic Boom vs. Mobis Phoebus Jun 15 $35 −$35 -100%
Will Real Valladolid CF win on 2025-12-19? Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Austin: Kaja Juvan vs McCartney Kessler Jun 15 $3 −$3 -100%
Dundee FC vs. Celtic FC: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $45 −$45 -100%
Will Fatih Karagümrük SK win on 2025-12-21? Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Jazz vs. Suns: O/U 233.5 Jun 15 $22 −$22 -100%
Rockets vs. Nets: O/U 222.5 Jun 15 $4 −$4 -100%
Counter-Strike: Bounty Hunters Esports vs largadosypelados (BO3) - ESL Jun 15 $4 −$4 -100%
Dota 2: Team Falcons vs MOUZ (BO3) - DreamLeague Stage 2 Jun 15 $3 −$3 -100%
Counter-Strike: paiN vs Gaimin Gladiators (BO3) - FERJEE In House Play Jun 15 $10 −$10 -100%
ASB Classic: Alycia Parks vs Elisabetta Cocciaretto Jun 15 $3 −$3 -100%
LoL: JD Gaming vs Anyone's Legend (BO3) - LPL Group Ascend Jun 15 $39 −$39 -100%
Stars vs. Ducks Jun 15 $3 −$3 -100%
Adelaide International, Qualification: Jaqueline Cristian vs Anastasia Jun 15 $11 −$11 -100%
Spread: Bucks (-1.5) Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Spread: Florida Gators (-35.5) Jun 15 $12 −$12 -100%
Luka Dončić: Points O/U 31.5 Jun 15 $16 −$16 -100%
Thunder vs. Celtics: O/U 222.5 Jun 15 $11 −$11 -100%
Australian Open Men's: Sho Shimabukuro vs Alex Molcan Jun 15 $8 −$8 -100%
Indian Premier League: Royal Challengers Bangalore vs Delhi Capitals Jun 15 $72 −$72 -100%
Spread: Michigan Wolverines (-7.5) Jun 15 $43 −$43 -100%
Counter-Strike: Team Nemesis vs K27 (BO3) - CIS LAN Championship Playo Jun 15 $3 −$3 -100%
Counter-Strike: Ground Zero vs Rooster (BO3) - ESL Challenger League O Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Spread: Trail Blazers (-14.5) Jun 15 $20 −$20 -100%
Counter-Strike: Fake do Biru vs largadosypelados (BO3) - ESL Challenge Jun 15 $8 −$8 -100%
Spread: Wake Forest Demon Deacons (-10.5) Jun 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Barcelona Open: Pedro Martinez vs Lorenzo Sonego Jun 15 $45 −$45 -100%
Denmark vs. North Macedonia: O/U 3.5 Jun 15 $59 −$59 -100%
Spread: Suns (-17.5) Jun 15 $31 −$31 -100%
Pelicans vs. Rockets Jun 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Connecticut Huskies vs. DePaul Blue Demons Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Millwall FC win on 2026-01-01? Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Nuggets vs. Spurs Jun 15 $85 −$85 -100%
Spread: Broncos (-12.5) Jun 15 $4 −$4 -100%
Spread: Yale Bulldogs (-5.5) Jun 15 $0 $0 -100%
Will FC Midtjylland win on 2026-03-22? Jun 15 $44 −$44 -100%
Counter-Strike: Phantom vs Atreides (BO3) - ESL Challenger League Euro Jun 15 $87 −$87 -100%
St. Bonaventure Bonnies vs. George Mason Patriots: O/U 143.5 Jun 15 $5 −$5 -100%
LoL: Karmine Corp Blue vs ⁠Movistar KOI Fénix (BO3) - EMEA Masters Pla Jun 15 $17 −$17 -100%
Alba Berlin vs. AEK Jun 15 $4 −$4 -100%
FC Lorient vs. Racing Club de Lens: O/U 1.5 Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Maple Leafs vs. Stars Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Hurricanes vs. Islanders Jun 15 $108 −$108 -100%
Counter-Strike: MOUZ NXT vs ECSTATIC (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #15 Pla Jun 15 $8 −$8 -100%
George Washington Revolutionaries vs. New Mexico Lobos: O/U 147.5 Jun 15 $25 −$25 -100%
Cincinnati Reds vs. Los Angeles Dodgers Jun 15 $3 −$3 -100%
Spread: Raptors (-12.5) Jun 15 $41 −$41 -100%
Arkansas-Pine Bluff Golden Lions vs. Alabama State Hornets (W) Jun 15 $3 −$3 -100%
Stars vs. Wild Jun 15 $87 −$87 -100%
Spurs vs. Grizzlies: O/U 237.5 Jun 15 $22 −$22 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major BUY BetBoom Team 44¢ $12 7m
Counter-Strike: Bebop vs RUSTEC (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Group Sta BUY Bebop 49¢ $20 1h
Counter-Strike: Bebop vs RUSTEC (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Group Sta BUY RUSTEC 43¢ $5 1h
Nottingham 2: Luca Nardi vs Remy Bertola BUY Remy Bertola 45¢ $26 3h
LoL: Saigon Warriors vs Top Esports Challenger (BO3) - Asia Masters La BUY Top Esports Challenger 46¢ $19 3h
Dota 2: D family vs Mentality Monster (BO3) - EPL World Series Southea BUY Mentality Monster 67¢ $29 4h
Dota 2: D family vs InterActive Philippines (BO3) - EPL World Series S BUY D family 40¢ $16 8h
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca BUY Justin Gaethje 71¢ $105 9h
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca BUY Justin Gaethje 42¢ $25 9h
UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card) BUY Ciryl Gane 45¢ $24 10h
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 5.5 BUY Under 74¢ $105 10h
UFC Freedom 250: Derrick Lewis vs. Josh Hokit (Heavyweight, Main Card) BUY Josh Hokit 74¢ $105 12h
Hurricanes vs. Golden Knights BUY Hurricanes 74¢ $105 12h
UFC Freedom 250: Steve Garcia vs. Diego Lopes (Featherweight, Main Car BUY Steve Garcia 45¢ $26 13h
Texas Rangers vs. Boston Red Sox: O/U 9.5 BUY Over 53¢ $106 15h
Call of Duty: Riyadh Falcons vs Carolina Royal Ravens (BO5) - Call of BUY Riyadh Falcons 65¢ $47 16h
Atlanta Dream vs. Toronto Tempo: O/U 172.5 BUY Over 44¢ $26 18h
St. Louis Cardinals vs. Minnesota Twins BUY St. Louis Cardinals 40¢ $18 18h
Call of Duty: Toronto KOI vs Cloud9 New York (BO5) - Call of Duty Leag BUY Toronto KOI 72¢ $44 18h
Spread: New York Liberty (-12.5) BUY Washington Mystics 49¢ $11 18h
St. Louis Cardinals vs. Minnesota Twins BUY Minnesota Twins 72¢ $101 18h
Rainbow Six Siege: LOS vs LOUD (BO1) - South America League Stage 1 Gr BUY LOUD 50¢ $21 18h
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo BUY Natus Vincere 44¢ $4 18h
Counter-Strike: Metizport vs Alliance (BO3) - ROG Journey Playoffs BUY Metizport 45¢ $16 19h
Colorado Rockies vs. Athletics: O/U 13.5 BUY Over 50¢ $32 19h
Valorant: G2 Esports vs FUT Esports (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playoff BUY G2 Esports 40¢ $11 20h
Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: St. Louis Cardinals v BUY No 50¢ $27 20h
Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Los Angeles Dodgers v BUY No 53¢ $32 20h
Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Los Angeles Dodgers v BUY No 50¢ $47 20h
Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Los Angeles Dodgers v BUY Yes 55¢ $35 20h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $94.64 · official $92.49 · 3500 history records