Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T09:34:20+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
0F 0x0fde…8ab1 sports 709 markets active 2h ago coverage 280d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$11,938 (-2%) realized −$11,390 · open −$548
Gross ROI / mkt -3% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -19% what you keep after slip
Net edge-19%after slip
Net WR54%break-even
Win rate69%485W / 221L
Whale WR71%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$707per market
Trades / day5.0pace
Fees−$1,280est.
Kalshi-fit95%portable
Net worth$3,177now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$290
7 days+$317
14 days+$684
30 days+$510
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 96% −$9,459
other 2% −$2,095
world 1% −$598
politics 0% −$820
tech 0% +$70
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +54%
net ROI/market (all)-12.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 15 +7.0% -3.2% 87% 60% -4.9%
≤30d 63 +7.1% -3.1% 89% 52% -6.4%
≤90d 340 -3.2% -12.4% 76% 54% -11.8%
all 706 -3.4% -12.6% 69% 54% -11.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover5.0 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -12.6% 54% -11.7%
10% -21.0% 23% -20.2%
15% -28.6% 8% -27.9%
20% -35.6% 3% -35.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 6% · top 2 9% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
21% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -3% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 71% (≥$740) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -3% → late -4% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$131 vs −$343 · ×0.38 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.84 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

280d coverage
Net worth$3,177
Realized−$11,390
Unrealized−$548
Win rate (resolved)69%
Wins / losses485 / 221
Whale WR (big bets)71%
Est. fees paid−$1,280
Open positions3
Markets (closed)706 / 709
History coverage280d
Avg bet$707
Trades / day5.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit95%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 706 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? No 58¢ 52¢ $2,947 $2,609 −$338 (-11%)
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? No 26¢ 14¢ $574 $296 −$278 (-48%)
Valorant: REJECT vs QT DIG∞ (BO3) - VCL Japan Main Stage REJECT 75¢ 100¢ $204 $272 +$68 (+33%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 9 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Jordan vs. Algeria: O/U 5.5 Jun 23 $478 +$26 +6%
France vs. Iraq: O/U 6.5 Jun 23 $442 +$37 +8%
Argentina vs. Austria: O/U 4.5 Jun 22 $420 +$21 +5%
Dota 2: Virtus.pro vs Inner Circle (BO3) - The International Europe Cl Jun 22 $173 +$47 +27%
Dota 2: GLYPH vs Grind Back (BO3) - The International Southeast Asia C Jun 22 $200 −$28 -14%
Dota 2: Execration vs Mentality Monster (BO3) - The International Sout Jun 22 $278 +$94 +34%
Raja Club Athletic vs. COD Meknès: O/U 4.5 Jun 21 $401 +$28 +7%
Dota 2: Nigma Galaxy vs Rune Eaters (BO3) - The International Europe C Jun 21 $215 +$62 +29%
Baltimore Orioles vs. Los Angeles Dodgers Jun 21 $401 +$48 +12%
ODI Series India vs Afghanistan: India vs Afghanistan Jun 20 $1,034 +$133 +13%
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: O/U 4.5 Jun 20 $401 +$43 +11%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs Jun 19 $302 +$98 +32%
Counter-Strike: FOKUS vs Noir Verse (BO3) - Stake Ranked Episode 3: Cl Jun 19 $750 +$89 +12%
Counter-Strike: 100 Thieves vs Leo Team (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 P Jun 18 $239 +$54 +23%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 3.5 Jun 16 $438 −$437 -100%
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Athletics Jun 16 $421 +$17 +4%
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 5.5 Jun 16 $401 +$17 +4%
PortlandFire vs. Minnesota Lynx Jun 16 $367 +$37 +10%
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 4.5 Jun 16 $332 +$35 +11%
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 4.5 Jun 15 $310 +$22 +7%
Counter-Strike: 100 Thieves vs Betclic Apogee Esports (BO3) - NODWIN C Jun 15 $258 +$52 +20%
Dota 2: Team Resilience vs Cloud Rising (BO3) - The International Chin Jun 15 $238 +$20 +8%
Counter-Strike: BASEMENT BOYS vs Alliance (BO3) - ROG Journey Playoffs Jun 14 $199 +$39 +20%
Australia vs. Türkiye: O/U 3.5 Jun 14 $180 +$19 +11%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs MOUZ (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 13 $137 +$42 +31%
LoL: Gen.G vs KT Rolster (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI Jun 13 $124 +$13 +11%
Chicago Cubs vs. San Francisco Giants Jun 13 $117 +$7 +6%
LoL: G2 NORD vs WLGaming Esports (BO3) - EMEA Masters Group C Jun 12 $106 +$11 +11%
Golden Knights vs. Hurricanes Jun 12 $97 +$9 +10%
LoL: Karmine Corp Blue vs PCIFIC (BO3) - EMEA Masters Group B Jun 11 $86 +$10 +12%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag Jun 11 $71 +$15 +21%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 11 $192 −$121 -63%
Los Angeles Sparks vs. Seattle Storm Jun 11 $195 −$3 -2%
Portugal vs. Nigeria: O/U 4.5 Jun 10 $173 +$23 +13%
LoL: Galions vs WLGaming Esports (BO3) - EMEA Masters Group C Jun 10 $163 +$10 +6%
LoL: G2 NORD vs Partizan Sangal (BO3) - EMEA Masters Group C Jun 10 $142 +$20 +14%
Atlanta Dream vs. Chicago Sky Jun 10 $113 +$29 +26%
Rainbow Six Siege: G2 Esports vs Heretics (BO1) - Europe MENA League S Jun 09 $86 +$27 +32%
LoL: E WIE EINFACH E-SPORTS vs GOAL (BO3) - EMEA Masters Play-In Jun 09 $75 +$11 +14%
LoL: Bilibili Gaming Junior vs T1 Academy (BO3) - Asia Masters Group B Jun 09 $72 +$4 +5%
LoL: Dplus KIA Challengers vs Top Esports Challenger (BO3) - Asia Mast Jun 09 $67 +$5 +7%
LoL: RED Canids vs Fluxo W7M (BO3) - Esports World Cup South America & Jun 09 $51 +$16 +32%
Dota 2: VP.Prodigy vs BALU (BO3) - European Pro League Group A Jun 08 $45 +$6 +12%
LoL: Anyone's Legend vs Team WE (BO5) - LPL Playoffs Jun 01 $399 −$398 -100%
LoL: HANJIN BRION vs Hanwha Life Esports (BO3) - LCK Rounds 1-2 May 31 $368 +$31 +8%
FC Imabari vs. FC Ryūkyū: O/U 4.5 May 31 $347 +$21 +6%
LoL: KT Rolster vs DN SOOPers (BO3) - LCK Rounds 1-2 May 30 $317 +$30 +10%
LoL: HMBLE vs GMBLERS ESPORTS (BO5) - LIT Playoffs May 29 $300 +$12 +4%
LoL: Gen.G vs HANJIN BRION (BO3) - LCK Rounds 1-2 May 29 $278 +$27 +10%
LoL: Dplus KIA vs Kiwoom DRX (BO3) - LCK Rounds 1-2 May 29 $103 +$31 +30%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Valorant: REJECT vs QT DIG∞ (BO3) - VCL Japan Main Stage BUY REJECT 75¢ $206 1h
Jordan vs. Algeria: O/U 5.5 BUY Under 95¢ $478 6h
France vs. Iraq: O/U 6.5 BUY Under 92¢ $442 12h
Argentina vs. Austria: O/U 4.5 BUY Under 95¢ $420 15h
Dota 2: Virtus.pro vs Inner Circle (BO3) - The International Europe Cl BUY Virtus.pro 78¢ $173 25h
Dota 2: GLYPH vs Grind Back (BO3) - The International Southeast Asia C SELL GLYPH 74¢ $172 26h
Dota 2: GLYPH vs Grind Back (BO3) - The International Southeast Asia C BUY GLYPH 85¢ $200 26h
Dota 2: Execration vs Mentality Monster (BO3) - The International Sout SELL Execration 100¢ $373 27h
Dota 2: Execration vs Mentality Monster (BO3) - The International Sout BUY Execration 74¢ $278 41h
Raja Club Athletic vs. COD Meknès: O/U 4.5 BUY Under 93¢ $401 42h
Dota 2: Nigma Galaxy vs Rune Eaters (BO3) - The International Europe C SELL Nigma Galaxy 100¢ $278 42h
Dota 2: Nigma Galaxy vs Rune Eaters (BO3) - The International Europe C BUY Nigma Galaxy 77¢ $215 2d
Baltimore Orioles vs. Los Angeles Dodgers SELL Baltimore Orioles 100¢ $449 2d
Baltimore Orioles vs. Los Angeles Dodgers BUY Baltimore Orioles 89¢ $401 2d
ODI Series India vs Afghanistan: India vs Afghanistan BUY India 88¢ $1,034 3d
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: O/U 4.5 BUY Under 90¢ $401 3d
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs BUY Spirit 75¢ $302 4d
Counter-Strike: 100 Thieves vs Leo Team (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 P BUY 100 Thieves 81¢ $239 4d
Counter-Strike: FOKUS vs Noir Verse (BO3) - Stake Ranked Episode 3: Cl SELL FOKUS 100¢ $839 4d
Counter-Strike: FOKUS vs Noir Verse (BO3) - Stake Ranked Episode 3: Cl BUY FOKUS 89¢ $750 5d
France vs. Senegal: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 93¢ $438 6d
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Athletics SELL Athletics 100¢ $437 7d
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Athletics BUY Athletics 96¢ $421 7d
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 5.5 SELL Under 100¢ $417 7d
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 5.5 BUY Under 96¢ $401 7d
PortlandFire vs. Minnesota Lynx SELL Minnesota Lynx 100¢ $405 7d
PortlandFire vs. Minnesota Lynx BUY Minnesota Lynx 90¢ $367 7d
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 4.5 SELL Under 100¢ $367 7d
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 4.5 BUY Under 90¢ $332 7d
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 4.5 SELL Under 100¢ $332 7d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $3,177.13 · official $3,177.13 (match) · 1580 history records