Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T21:32:20+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
0F 0x0fe4…adc7 other 9 markets active 0h ago coverage 9d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$91 (-33%) realized −$82 · open −$9
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -44% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -49% what you keep after slip
Net edge-49%after slip
Net WR25%break-even
Win rate38%3W / 5L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$31per market
Trades / day2.4pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit56%portable
Net worth$23now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$22
7 days−$63
14 days−$61
30 days−$61
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 48% +$7
world 40% −$46
sports 12% −$31
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +25%
net ROI/market (all)-49.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 7 -51.0% -55.7% 29% 29% -36.1%
≤30d 8 -44.0% -49.3% 38% 25% -31.7%
≤90d 8 -44.0% -49.3% 38% 25% -31.7%
all 8 -44.0% -49.3% 38% 25% -31.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -49.3% 25% -31.7%
10% -54.2% 25% -38.3%
15% -58.6% 12% -44.2%
20% -62.6% 12% -49.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 64% · top 2 95% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -26% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
33% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -44% · $-wt -26% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$12 vs −$19 · ×0.6 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.36 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

9d coverage
Net worth$23
Realized−$82
Unrealized−$9
Win rate (resolved)38%
Wins / losses3 / 5
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions1
Markets (closed)8 / 9
History coverage9d
Avg bet$31
Trades / day2.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit56%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 8 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? Yes 30¢ 22¢ $32 $23 −$9 (-28%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 2 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $82 +$22 +27%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $21 −$20 -98%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $9 −$6 -63%
Spread: Brazil (-1.5) Jun 13 $34 −$31 -91%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $20 +$11 +54%
Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire over by June 15? Jun 13 $35 −$34 -96%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by June 15? Jun 13 $10 −$5 -50%
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 10 $33 +$2 +5%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 3¢ $12 0m
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 5¢ $21 17m
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 15¢ $63 41m
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 7¢ $31 1h
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 8¢ $29 1h
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 8¢ $31 1h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY Yes 30¢ $32 2d
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 26¢ $21 3d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 24¢ $3 3d
Spread: Brazil (-1.5) SELL Brazil 2¢ $3 3d
Spread: Brazil (-1.5) BUY Brazil 22¢ $34 3d
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? SELL Yes 40¢ $31 3d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? SELL Yes 31¢ $3 3d
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 25¢ $20 3d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 58¢ $6 3d
Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire over by June 15? SELL Yes 1¢ $1 3d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by June 15? SELL Yes 0¢ $5 3d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by June 15? BUY Yes 1¢ $10 6d
Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire over by June 15? BUY Yes 17¢ $35 7d
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 4¢ $35 7d
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 4¢ $33 8d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $22.93 · official $22.93 (match) · 21 history records