Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T09:37:41+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
0F 0x0fe5…91aa weather 747 markets active 1h ago coverage 234d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL +$224 (+3%) realized +$334 · open −$110
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -13% what you keep after slip
Net edge-13%after slip
Net WR30%break-even
Win rate60%439W / 292L
Drawdown88%max
Avg bet$9per market
Trades / day6.1pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit79%portable
Net worth$33now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$56
7 days+$2
14 days−$15
30 days−$3
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
weather 73% −$49
other 10% −$62
sports 5% +$61
world 4% +$104
finance 3% +$70
crypto 2% −$92
politics 2% −$19
tech 0% +$6
culture 0% +$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +30%
net ROI/market (all)-9.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 69 +4.4% -5.5% 81% 26% -9.4%
≤30d 249 -10.7% -19.2% 73% 21% -9.6%
≤90d 592 -24.6% -31.8% 54% 20% -18.0%
all 731 -0.1% -9.6% 60% 30% -8.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover6.1 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.6% 30% -8.2%
10% -18.3% 21% -17.0%
15% -26.2% 17% -25.0%
20% -33.4% 14% -32.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 7% · top 2 13% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -9% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
48% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt +2% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +4% → late -4% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$3 vs −$4 · ×0.74 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.12 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

234d coverage
Net worth$33
Realized+$334
Unrealized−$110
Win rate (resolved)60%
Wins / losses439 / 292
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions16
Markets (closed)731 / 747
History coverage234d
Avg bet$9
Trades / day6.1
Drawdown88%
Kalshi-fit79%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 16 History 731 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the highest temperature in London be 27°C on June 21? No 97¢ 99¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+2%)
Will Cristiano Ronaldo score 1+ goals during the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 18¢ 22¢ $4 $5 +$1 (+22%)
Will Cristiano Ronaldo score 5+ goals during the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 91¢ 93¢ $3 $3 +$0 (+3%)
World Cup: Ronaldo to Score 2+ Penalties? No 54¢ 70¢ $2 $3 +$1 (+30%)
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 22? No 71¢ 88¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+24%)
Will there be at least 2200 measles cases in the U.S. by June 30, 2026? No 90¢ 98¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+9%)
Will Cristiano Ronaldo score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 21¢ 22¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+5%)
Will Saudi Arabia advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 41¢ 41¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+0%)
Will Hyperliquid reach $80 in June? No 88¢ 86¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-3%)
Supreme Court vacancy in 2026? No 72¢ 64¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-12%)
Will Trump nationalize elections? No 83¢ 87¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+5%)
10.0 or above earthquake before 2027? No 96¢ 96¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-0%)
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 39°C on June 21? Yes 58¢ 0¢ $109 $1 −$108 (-99%)
Will Brazil reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 50¢ 46¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-9%)
Will Donald Trump publicly insult Norah O'Donnell by June 30, 2026? No 74¢ 57¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-22%)
Starmer out by June 30, 2026? No 55¢ 10¢ $4 $1 −$3 (-83%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 12 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 38°C on June 21? Jun 21 $180 −$73 -41%
Will the highest temperature in London be 28°C on June 21? Jun 21 $3 $0 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Manila be 35°C on June 21? Jun 21 $3 +$1 +27%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 30°C on June 21? Jun 21 $3 $0 +11%
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? Jun 20 $1 +$1 +61%
Will Donald Trump publicly insult Mohammed bin Salman by June 30, 2026 Jun 20 $5 $0 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 22°C on June 20? Jun 20 $10 +$1 +6%
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 25°C on June 20? Jun 20 $10 +$1 +6%
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 27°C on June 20? Jun 20 $20 $0 +2%
Will Cristiano Ronaldo score 2+ goals during the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 20 $5 +$3 +63%
Will the highest temperature in London be 25°C on June 20? Jun 20 $3 $0 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 26°C on June 20? Jun 20 $5 +$1 +13%
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 41°C on June 20? Jun 20 $1 +$4 +378%
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 40°C on June 20? Jun 20 $3 +$2 +71%
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 43°C on June 20? Jun 20 $1 −$1 -95%
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 42°C on June 20? Jun 20 $1 −$1 -95%
Will Australia finish last in Group D in the 2026 FIFA World Cup Group Jun 20 $3 $0 +3%
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 72-73°F on Ju Jun 20 $4 $0 +10%
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 74-75°F on Ju Jun 20 $10 $0 +1%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $2 $0 +17%
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 70-71°F on Ju Jun 19 $2 −$2 -98%
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 21°C on June 19? Jun 19 $3 $0 +5%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 16°C on June 19? Jun 19 $165 +$7 +4%
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 18? Jun 19 $2 $0 +22%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 30°C on June 19? Jun 19 $5 −$1 -18%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 37°C on June 18? Jun 18 $157 +$10 +6%
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 20°C on June 18? Jun 18 $5 $0 +4%
Will the highest temperature in London be 25°C on June 18? Jun 18 $3 $0 +5%
Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 36°C on June 18? Jun 18 $3 $0 +7%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 27°C on June 18? Jun 18 $140 +$5 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 26°C on June 18? Jun 18 $3 +$1 +21%
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 74-75°F on June 17? Jun 18 $5 $0 +3%
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $2 −$2 -98%
Will the highest temperature in London be 27°C on June 17? Jun 17 $3 $0 +3%
Will the highest temperature in London be 25°C on June 17? Jun 17 $3 $0 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 25°C on June 17? Jun 17 $3 $0 +13%
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 38°C on June 17? Jun 17 $2 $0 +21%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 33°C on June 17? Jun 17 $5 $0 +10%
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 37°C on June 17? Jun 17 $100 +$6 +6%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 30°C on June 17? Jun 17 $5 $0 +5%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 28°C on June 17? Jun 17 $3 −$1 -36%
Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 27°C on June 16? Jun 17 $5 +$1 +10%
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 70-71°F on June Jun 16 $3 +$2 +54%
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 70-71°F on June 16? Jun 16 $2 +$1 +46%
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 84-85°F on June 16? Jun 16 $5 $0 +4%
Will the highest temperature in London be 28°C on June 16? Jun 16 $4 $0 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 21°C on June 16? Jun 16 $121 +$21 +18%
Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 40°C or higher on June 16? Jun 16 $120 +$1 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 22°C on June 17? Jun 16 $2 $0 -2%
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 27°C on June 17? Jun 16 $130 −$8 -6%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 39°C on June 21? BUY Yes 58¢ $112 1h
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 38°C on June 21? SELL No 58¢ $107 1h
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 38°C on June 21? BUY No 95¢ $180 4h
Will the highest temperature in London be 28°C on June 21? SELL No 85¢ $3 4h
Will the highest temperature in London be 27°C on June 21? BUY No 97¢ $5 4h
Will the highest temperature in Manila be 35°C on June 21? SELL No 99¢ $4 5h
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 30°C on June 21? SELL No 99¢ $3 6h
Will the highest temperature in Manila be 35°C on June 21? BUY No 77¢ $3 6h
Will the highest temperature in London be 28°C on June 21? BUY No 80¢ $3 6h
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 30°C on June 21? BUY No 89¢ $3 6h
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? SELL No 95¢ $2 15h
Will Donald Trump publicly insult Mohammed bin Salman by June 30, 2026 SELL No 99¢ $5 15h
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 22°C on June 20? SELL No 99¢ $11 15h
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 25°C on June 20? SELL No 93¢ $11 16h
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 27°C on June 20? SELL No 100¢ $20 18h
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 22°C on June 20? BUY No 93¢ $10 18h
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 25°C on June 20? BUY No 87¢ $5 19h
Will Cristiano Ronaldo score 5+ goals during the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 91¢ $3 19h
Will Cristiano Ronaldo score 2+ goals during the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 49¢ $8 19h
Will the highest temperature in London be 25°C on June 20? SELL No 100¢ $3 19h
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 25°C on June 20? BUY No 87¢ $5 20h
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 26°C on June 20? SELL No 97¢ $6 21h
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 41°C on June 20? SELL Yes 100¢ $5 21h
Will the highest temperature in London be 25°C on June 20? BUY No 96¢ $3 21h
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 40°C on June 20? SELL No 100¢ $5 21h
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 26°C on June 20? BUY No 85¢ $5 27h
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 27°C on June 20? BUY No 98¢ $20 27h
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 43°C on June 20? BUY Yes 1¢ $1 27h
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 42°C on June 20? BUY Yes 4¢ $1 27h
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 41°C on June 20? BUY Yes 20¢ $1 27h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $33.48 · official $33.48 (match) · 1764 history records