Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T03:35:44+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
0F 0x0fe5…15d5 crypto 203 markets active 1h ago coverage 184d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$289 (-21%) realized −$288 · open −$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -20% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -27% what you keep after slip
Net edge-27%after slip
Net WR36%break-even
Win rate39%71W / 112L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$7per market
Trades / day2.0pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit88%portable
Net worth$2now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$42
7 days−$488
14 days−$488
30 days−$488
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 72% −$194
other 17% −$53
sports 8% $0
politics 2% −$27
world 2% +$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +36%
net ROI/market (all)-27.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 97 -76.8% -79.0% 13% 11% -70.2%
≤30d 97 -76.8% -79.0% 13% 11% -70.2%
≤90d 105 -67.1% -70.2% 19% 17% -64.5%
all 183 -19.6% -27.3% 39% 36% -27.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.0 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -27.3% 36% -27.6%
10% -34.3% 34% -34.5%
15% -40.6% 33% -40.8%
20% -46.4% 27% -46.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 8% · top 2 17% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -61% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
7% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -20% · $-wt -20% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +37% → late -76% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$6 vs −$6 · ×0.97 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.62 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

184d coverage
Net worth$2
Realized−$288
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)39%
Wins / losses71 / 112
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions1
Markets (closed)183 / 203
History coverage184d
Avg bet$7
Trades / day2.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit88%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 183 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 11¢ 7¢ $3 $2 −$1 (-38%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 5 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET Jun 23 $7 −$7 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET Jun 23 $7 −$7 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 10:25PM-10:30PM ET Jun 23 $5 +$4 +69%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 10:20PM-10:25PM ET Jun 23 $6 +$4 +66%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET Jun 23 $3 −$3 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET Jun 23 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 10:10PM-10:15PM ET Jun 23 $16 +$11 +72%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET Jun 23 $3 −$3 -97%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $31 +$37 +120%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $23 +$9 +37%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:20PM-11:25PM ET Jun 18 $2 −$1 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET Jun 18 $1 −$1 -100%
UFC 324: Yadong vs. O'Malley (Bantamweight, Main Card) Jun 18 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 2, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET Jun 18 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET Jun 18 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 28, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET Jun 18 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 28, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET Jun 18 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 28, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET Jun 18 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 2, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET Jun 18 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 28, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET Jun 18 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 1, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET Jun 18 $5 −$3 -61%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 27, 11:35PM-11:40PM ET Jun 18 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 22, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET Jun 18 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 22, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET Jun 18 $5 +$3 +55%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 22, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET Jun 18 $6 +$1 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 28, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET Jun 18 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 1, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET Jun 18 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 20, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET Jun 18 $22 +$2 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 22, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET Jun 18 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 20, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET Jun 18 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 20, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET Jun 18 $6 −$6 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 20, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET Jun 18 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 22, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET Jun 18 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 27, 10:40PM-10:45PM ET Jun 18 $6 −$6 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 1, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET Jun 18 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 28, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET Jun 18 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 1, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET Jun 18 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 22, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET Jun 18 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 20, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET Jun 18 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 28, 12:35AM-12:40AM ET Jun 18 $3 +$2 +63%
Bucks vs. Grizzlies Jun 18 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 20, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET Jun 18 $6 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 28, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET Jun 18 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET Jun 18 $5 −$5 -100%
Will ACF Fiorentina win on 2025-12-27? Jun 18 $4 −$4 -100%
Will Benin vs. Botswana end in a draw? Jun 18 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 20, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET Jun 18 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Hull City AFC win on 2025-12-26? Jun 18 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 20, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET Jun 18 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 20, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET Jun 18 $4 −$4 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET BUY Up 22¢ $1 56m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET BUY Up 28¢ $2 57m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET BUY Up 33¢ $4 59m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET BUY Down 5¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET BUY Down 38¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET BUY Down 40¢ $4 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 10:25PM-10:30PM ET SELL Down 48¢ $9 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 10:25PM-10:30PM ET BUY Down 15¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 10:25PM-10:30PM ET BUY Down 32¢ $4 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 10:20PM-10:25PM ET SELL Down 53¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 10:20PM-10:25PM ET BUY Down 21¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 10:20PM-10:25PM ET BUY Down 32¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET BUY Down 3¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET BUY Down 10¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET BUY Down 12¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 10:10PM-10:15PM ET SELL Up 51¢ $27 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 10:10PM-10:15PM ET BUY Up 28¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 10:10PM-10:15PM ET BUY Up 27¢ $11 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET BUY Up 9¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET BUY Up 9¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET BUY Down 60¢ $3 1h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? SELL Yes 96¢ $67 1h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 43¢ $31 8h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? SELL Yes 94¢ $32 8h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 68¢ $23 12h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? AND Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? AND BUY 2¢ $0 4d
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? AND Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? AND BUY 1¢ $0 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:20PM-11:25PM ET BUY Up 29¢ $2 5d
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? AND Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? AND BUY 1¢ $2 5d
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? AND Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? AND BUY 1¢ $2 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $2.02 · official $2.02 (match) · 477 history records