Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T05:40:00+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.5
score
0F 0x0fe9…56d9 weather 59 markets active 1h ago coverage 27d
TRAPdo not copy weather specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$265 (+5%) realized +$267 · open −$2
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -13% what you keep after slip
Net edge-13%after slip
Net WR19%break-even
Win rate77%44W / 13L
Drawdown20%max
Avg bet$94per market
Trades / day8.3pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$195now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$24
7 days+$80
14 days+$109
30 days+$239
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
weather 100% +$237
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +19%
net ROI/market (all)-5.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 12 +6.3% -3.9% 92% 17% -3.9%
≤30d 57 +4.0% -5.9% 77% 19% -5.5%
≤90d 57 +4.0% -5.9% 77% 19% -5.5%
all 57 +4.0% -5.9% 77% 19% -5.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover8.3 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -5.9% 19% -5.5%
10% -14.9% 7% -14.5%
15% -23.2% 5% -22.8%
20% -30.7% 2% -30.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 6% · top 2 12% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
75% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +4% · $-wt +4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +7% → late +1% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$8 vs −$8 · ×0.96 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×3.26 per $1 lost it wins $3.26
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

27d coverage
Net worth$195
Realized+$267
Unrealized−$2
Win rate (resolved)77%
Wins / losses44 / 13
Open positions2
Markets (closed)57 / 59
History coverage27d
Avg bet$94
Trades / day8.3
Drawdown20%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 57 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 23°C on June 23? No 95¢ 94¢ $104 $104 −$1 (-1%)
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 37°C on June 22? No 77¢ 76¢ $92 $91 −$1 (-2%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 25°C on June 22? Jun 22 $131 +$8 +6%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 36°C on June 22? Jun 21 $132 +$8 +6%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 36°C on June 20? Jun 20 $20 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 33°C on June 20? Jun 20 $52 +$7 +14%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 27°C on June 19? Jun 19 $97 +$22 +22%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 26°C on June 19? Jun 19 $223 +$7 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 34°C on June 18? Jun 18 $103 +$1 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 34°C on June 18? Jun 17 $15 $0 -0%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 23°C on June 17? Jun 16 $108 +$6 +5%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 24°C on June 16? Jun 16 $190 +$9 +5%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 25°C on June 16? Jun 16 $25 +$1 +6%
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 27°C on June 15? Jun 15 $206 +$11 +6%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 27°C on June 16? Jun 14 $103 −$3 -3%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 30°C on June 14? Jun 14 $57 −$3 -6%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 24°C on June 14? Jun 14 $162 $0 -0%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 25°C on June 15? Jun 14 $102 +$7 +7%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 26°C on June 14? Jun 14 $17 +$7 +38%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 30°C on June 13? Jun 13 $215 +$10 +5%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 26°C on June 13? Jun 13 $30 +$2 +6%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 26°C on June 12? Jun 12 $90 −$48 -53%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 32°C on June 11? Jun 11 $12 +$2 +20%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 25°C on June 11? Jun 11 $89 +$10 +12%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 24°C on June 11? Jun 11 $110 +$10 +9%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 31°C on June 11? Jun 10 $120 +$11 +9%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 31°C on June 9? Jun 08 $110 +$6 +5%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 32°C on June 8? Jun 08 $210 +$17 +8%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 31°C on June 7? Jun 07 $157 +$7 +5%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 26°C on June 7? Jun 07 $149 +$10 +7%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 27°C on June 7? Jun 07 $35 −$35 -98%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 29°C on June 6? Jun 06 $6 +$6 +92%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 21°C on June 6? Jun 06 $105 +$4 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 20°C on June 6? Jun 06 $57 +$4 +7%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 22°C on June 4? Jun 04 $102 +$8 +8%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 21°C on June 4? Jun 04 $212 +$18 +9%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 30°C on June 3? Jun 03 $70 −$2 -3%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 27°C on June 4? Jun 03 $17 $0 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 18°C or below on June 3? Jun 03 $84 −$2 -2%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 30°C on June 2? Jun 02 $16 −$8 -48%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 25°C on June 3? Jun 02 $7 −$2 -23%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 24°C on June 2? Jun 01 $111 +$18 +16%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 23°C on June 2? Jun 01 $115 +$5 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 33°C on June 1? Jun 01 $111 +$9 +8%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 34°C on June 1? Jun 01 $16 $0 -2%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 24°C on June 1? Jun 01 $125 +$4 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 34°C on May 31? May 31 $50 +$9 +19%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 26°C on May 31? May 31 $56 −$1 -1%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 29°C on May 30? May 30 $113 +$6 +5%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 27°C on May 30? May 30 $90 +$14 +16%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 26°C on May 30? May 29 $118 +$11 +10%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 28°C on May 29? May 29 $95 +$5 +5%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 23°C on June 23? BUY No 95¢ $105 1h
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 25°C on June 22? SELL No 100¢ $22 3h
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 25°C on June 22? SELL No 100¢ $8 3h
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 25°C on June 22? SELL No 100¢ $8 3h
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 25°C on June 22? SELL No 100¢ $3 4h
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 25°C on June 22? SELL No 99¢ $99 4h
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 36°C on June 22? SELL No 100¢ $139 12h
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 37°C on June 22? BUY No 72¢ $15 25h
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 36°C on June 22? BUY No 94¢ $132 25h
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 25°C on June 22? BUY No 93¢ $131 30h
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 37°C on June 22? BUY No 78¢ $78 38h
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 36°C on June 20? SELL No 90¢ $21 40h
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 36°C on June 20? BUY No 88¢ $20 40h
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 33°C on June 20? SELL No 99¢ $59 40h
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 33°C on June 20? BUY No 86¢ $52 41h
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 27°C on June 19? SELL No 100¢ $103 2d
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 27°C on June 19? SELL No 90¢ $15 3d
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 26°C on June 19? SELL No 100¢ $39 3d
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 26°C on June 19? SELL No 100¢ $70 3d
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 26°C on June 19? SELL No 100¢ $50 3d
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 26°C on June 19? SELL No 100¢ $50 3d
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 26°C on June 19? SELL No 100¢ $21 3d
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 26°C on June 19? BUY No 96¢ $19 3d
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 27°C on June 19? BUY No 78¢ $16 3d
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 26°C on June 19? BUY No 97¢ $204 3d
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 27°C on June 19? BUY No 80¢ $81 3d
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 34°C on June 18? SELL No 96¢ $6 3d
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 34°C on June 18? SELL No 94¢ $17 4d
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 34°C on June 18? SELL No 94¢ $35 4d
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 34°C on June 18? SELL No 94¢ $32 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $194.55 · official $194.55 (match) · 228 history records