Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T23:55:58+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
0F 0x0ff2…d164 crypto 23 markets active 1h ago coverage 1d
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable crypto specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover! limited sample (<25 closed)! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$101 (-15%) realized −$82 · open −$19
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -55% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -66% what you keep after slip
Net edge-66%after slip
Net WR20%break-even
Win rate20%4W / 16L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$29per market
Trades / day32.0pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit87%portable
Net worth$91now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 63% −$69
sports 18% +$119
other 13% −$32
politics 6% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +20%
net ROI/market (all)-59.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 20 -55.4% -59.6% 20% 20% -3.5%
≤30d 20 -55.4% -59.6% 20% 20% -3.5%
≤90d 20 -55.4% -59.6% 20% 20% -3.5%
all 20 -55.4% -59.6% 20% 20% -3.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover32.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -59.6% 20% -3.5%
10% ← realistic here -63.5% 20% -12.7%
15% -67.0% 20% -21.1%
20% -70.3% 20% -28.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 36% · top 2 66% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +7% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -55% · $-wt +7% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -61% → late -50% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$72 vs −$16 · ×4.58 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.15 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$91
Realized−$82
Unrealized−$19
Win rate (resolved)20%
Wins / losses4 / 16
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions3
Markets (closed)20 / 23
History coverage1d
Avg bet$29
Trades / day32.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit87%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 20 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Ken Sim win the 2026 Vancouver mayoral election? Yes 32¢ 32¢ $40 $40 −$0 (-0%)
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 22? Yes 23¢ 12¢ $50 $26 −$24 (-48%)
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? Yes 9¢ 12¢ $20 $25 +$5 (+26%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 4 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET Jun 17 $104 +$104 +100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET Jun 17 $5 −$5 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET Jun 17 $52 +$64 +124%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET Jun 17 $26 −$25 -96%
XRP Up or Down - June 17, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET Jun 17 $9 −$9 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET Jun 17 $26 −$25 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET Jun 17 $53 −$50 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET Jun 17 $21 −$4 -19%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 5:00PM-5:15PM ET Jun 17 $11 −$11 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET Jun 17 $21 −$21 -100%
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $13 −$13 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET Jun 17 $26 −$26 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:00PM-5:15PM ET Jun 17 $8 −$8 -100%
XRP Up or Down - June 17, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET Jun 17 $11 −$11 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET Jun 17 $11 −$11 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET Jun 17 $11 −$11 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET Jun 17 $0 $0 -100%
England vs. Croatia: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $81 +$85 +105%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET Jun 17 $21 −$21 -100%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 3.5 Jun 17 $41 +$33 +82%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET SELL Up 94¢ $208 53m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET BUY Up 45¢ $104 55m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET BUY Up 4¢ $5 57m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET BUY Up 43¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET BUY Up 43¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET BUY Down 41¢ $26 1h
XRP Up or Down - June 17, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET BUY Down 39¢ $9 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET BUY Down 43¢ $26 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET BUY Up 25¢ $26 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET BUY Up 19¢ $26 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET BUY Down 17¢ $11 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET SELL Up 58¢ $17 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET BUY Up 33¢ $10 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET BUY Down 42¢ $26 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:00PM-5:15PM ET BUY Up 3¢ $8 2h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 5:00PM-5:15PM ET BUY Up 10¢ $11 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET BUY Up 10¢ $11 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET BUY Up 37¢ $10 2h
XRP Up or Down - June 17, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET BUY Down 9¢ $11 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET BUY Down 27¢ $11 2h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET BUY Down 3¢ $0 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET BUY Down 12¢ $11 3h
England vs. Croatia: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 100¢ $166 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET BUY Up 2¢ $11 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET BUY Up 46¢ $10 3h
England vs. Croatia: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 48¢ $81 3h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 3.5 SELL Under 100¢ $74 4h
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 22? BUY Yes 23¢ $52 5h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 54¢ $41 5h
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? BUY Yes 9¢ $21 5h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $91.19 · official $91.19 (match) · 46 history records