Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T08:46:14+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
0F 0x0ff2…c34e world 42 markets active 1h ago coverage 318d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$11 (+1%) realized +$11 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +10% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -0% what you keep after slip
Net edge-0%after slip
Net WR7%break-even
Win rate45%19W / 23L
Drawdown12%max
Avg bet$29per market
Trades / day0.5pace
Kalshi-fit86%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$2
7 days+$2
14 days+$2
30 days+$5
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 44% +$3
politics 23% +$3
other 12% +$5
sports 10% $0
finance 8% +$1
crypto 2% $0
culture 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +7%
net ROI/market (all)-0.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 +4.6% -5.4% 100% 0% -5.4%
≤30d 13 +0.9% -8.7% 38% 0% -8.8%
≤90d 15 +0.7% -8.9% 33% 0% -8.9%
all 42 +10.2% -0.3% 45% 7% -8.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.5 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -0.3% 7% -8.7%
10% -9.8% 7% -17.4%
15% -18.5% 7% -25.4%
20% -26.5% 5% -32.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 26% · top 2 43% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
84% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +10% · $-wt +1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +16% → late +4% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.9 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$0 · ×4.95 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×6.27 per $1 lost it wins $6.27
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

318d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$11
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)45%
Wins / losses19 / 23
Open positions0
Markets (closed)42 / 42
History coverage318d
Avg bet$29
Trades / day0.5
Drawdown12%
Kalshi-fit86%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 42 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? Jun 19 $39 +$2 +5%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? May 27 $38 +$1 +2%
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? May 26 $76 +$2 +3%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? May 25 $41 $0 -0%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? May 25 $41 $0 -0%
US strike on Cuba by December 31? May 24 $18 +$1 +4%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? May 24 $79 $0 +0%
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ma May 24 $40 $0 -0%
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by June 30? May 23 $42 $0 -0%
Israel closes its airspace by May 31? May 23 $77 −$1 -1%
Will Masoud Pezeshkian be head of state in Iran end of 2026? May 21 $36 $0 -0%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? May 20 $36 $0 +0%
Will Mohammed bin Salman cease to be the de facto leader of Saudi Arab May 20 $39 $0 +0%
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by December 31? May 20 $36 $0 -1%
Iran leadership change by June 30? May 19 $1 $0 +0%
Will Eric Adams win the 2025 NYC mayoral election? Sep 11 $14 +$1 +6%
Will the Detroit Pistons win the 2026 NBA Finals? Sep 11 $16 $0 -1%
Will Trump sell over 100k Gold Cards in 2025? Sep 08 $5 $0 +1%
Will Trump sell 101-1k Gold Cards in 2025? Aug 19 $2 +$2 +70%
Will Avatar 3 be the top grossing movie of 2025? Aug 11 $11 $0 -0%
Will Trump deport 750,000-1,000,000 people? Aug 11 $6 $0 +8%
Will Tottenham win the 2025–26 English Premier League? Aug 11 $41 $0 -0%
Will Fergus Finlay win the Irish Presidential Election? Aug 11 $1 $0 -2%
Will ANO win the most seats in the next Czech parliamentary election? Aug 11 $0 $0 -3%
Will the 10-year Treasury yield hit 5.7% in 2025? Aug 11 $55 $0 +0%
Will Ana-Maria Ciceală be the next Mayor of Bucharest? Aug 10 $16 $0 -0%
Will the Dallas Cowboys win Super Bowl 2026? Aug 10 $2 $0 +0%
Will the Cincinnati Bengals win Super Bowl 2026? Aug 10 $6 $0 +3%
Will Trump meet with Vladimir Putin in August? Aug 10 $52 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be less than $3500 on August 7 at 5PM ET? Aug 10 $6 $0 +1%
Will Elon tweet 420–434 times August 1–August 8? Aug 10 $1 +$4 +296%
Will Ron DeSantis win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Aug 09 $35 $0 +0%
Will Mark Kelly win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Aug 08 $18 $0 +0%
Will Trump deport 500,000-750,000- people? Aug 08 $21 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Aug 08 $44 $0 +0%
Will Israel airdrop aid into Gaza? Aug 08 $2 +$1 +36%
Will the 10-year Treasury yield hit 6.0% in 2025? Aug 07 $2 $0 +6%
Will Brighton win the 2025–26 English Premier League? Aug 07 $67 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $20,000 by December 31, 2025? Aug 07 $5 $0 -2%
Will Sarah Huckabee Sanders win the 2028 Republican presidential nomin Aug 06 $74 $0 +0%
Solana above $175 on August 6? Aug 06 $8 $0 +0%
Will the U.S. tariff rate on China be greater than 150% on August 15? Aug 06 $81 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? SELL No 91¢ $41 1h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY No 87¢ $8 3h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY No 87¢ $31 3h
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? SELL No 90¢ $8 23d
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? SELL No 90¢ $31 23d
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? BUY No 88¢ $38 23d
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? SELL No 80¢ $32 23d
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? SELL No 80¢ $6 23d
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? BUY No 76¢ $37 24d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? SELL No 96¢ $40 24d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? BUY No 97¢ $41 24d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 60¢ $41 25d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? BUY No 60¢ $41 25d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? SELL Yes 48¢ $12 25d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? SELL Yes 48¢ $7 25d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? BUY Yes 46¢ $18 25d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? SELL No 96¢ $39 25d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? BUY No 96¢ $39 25d
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ma SELL No 90¢ $40 26d
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ma BUY No 90¢ $40 26d
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by June 30? SELL No 98¢ $40 26d
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by June 30? BUY No 98¢ $40 26d
Israel closes its airspace by May 31? SELL No 61¢ $5 26d
Israel closes its airspace by May 31? SELL No 61¢ $35 26d
Israel closes its airspace by May 31? BUY No 61¢ $40 26d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? SELL No 96¢ $39 28d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? BUY No 96¢ $39 28d
Will Masoud Pezeshkian be head of state in Iran end of 2026? SELL No 98¢ $23 28d
Will Masoud Pezeshkian be head of state in Iran end of 2026? SELL No 98¢ $14 28d
Will Masoud Pezeshkian be head of state in Iran end of 2026? BUY No 99¢ $29 29d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 171 history records