Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T10:22:39+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
0F 0x0ff4…8b4d politics 83 markets active 2h ago coverage 633d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$20 (-0%) realized −$20 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -3% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -12% what you keep after slip
Net edge-12%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate5%4W / 79L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$215per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit71%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days−$0
14 days−$0
30 days−$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 97% −$19
other 2% $0
sports 1% −$1
tech 0% $0
crypto 0% $0
world 0% $0
economics 0% $0
weather 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-12.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 -0.0% -9.6% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤30d 2 -0.0% -9.6% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤90d 9 -0.1% -9.6% 11% 0% -9.6%
all 83 -2.9% -12.2% 5% 0% -9.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -12.2% 0% -9.6%
10% -20.6% 0% -18.3%
15% -28.2% 0% -26.2%
20% -35.3% 0% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 63% · top 2 97% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -3% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -6% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
0.7 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×0.11 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.01 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

633d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$20
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)5%
Wins / losses4 / 79
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions0
Markets (closed)83 / 83
History coverage633d
Avg bet$215
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit71%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 83 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the Miami Dolphins win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 23 $54 $0 -0%
Will Ségolène Royal win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 04 $54 $0 -0%
Will Vivek Ramaswamy win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 21 $54 $0 -0%
Will Poland win Eurovision 2026? May 15 $54 $0 -0%
Will Switzerland win Eurovision 2026? May 13 $54 $0 -0%
Will Bulgaria win Eurovision 2026? May 05 $54 $0 -0%
Will Élisabeth Borne win the 2027 French presidential election? Apr 17 $55 $0 -0%
Will Ethereum reach $4,000 in April? Apr 13 $55 $0 +0%
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 01 $55 $0 -0%
Will Eduardo Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Mar 19 $55 $0 +0%
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Mar 15 $55 $0 -0%
Will Elon Musk win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Mar 11 $55 $0 +0%
Will Microsoft be the largest company in the world by market cap on Ma Mar 05 $55 $0 +0%
Will Mark Kelly win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Mar 01 $55 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Feb 24 $55 $0 -0%
Will the Washington Wizards win the 2026 NBA Finals? Feb 06 $53 $0 -0%
Will Jean-Louis Billon win the 2025 Ivory Coast presidential election? Nov 24 $53 $0 +0%
Will Trump pardon Hunter Biden? Jan 30 $2 $0 +0%
Will the Milwaukee Bucks win the 2025 NBA Finals? Jan 30 $2 $0 +0%
Iggy Azalea vs. Profits Jan 30 $2 $0 +0%
Will AZ Alkmaar win the UEFA Europa League? Jan 30 $2 $0 +0%
Will Lauri Markkanen lead the NBA in scoring? Jan 30 $3 $0 +0%
Will Heung-Min Son be the top goalscorer in the EPL? Jan 30 $3 $0 +0%
X and Truth Social merger announced before August? Jan 30 $4 $0 +0%
Ukraine election scheduled in 2024? Jan 29 $2 $0 +0%
Will Brock Purdy win NFL MVP for the 2024-25 season? Jan 29 $2 $0 +0%
Will Berachain launch in 2024? Jan 29 $2 $0 +0%
Another Iran strike on Israel in 2024? Jan 29 $2 $0 +0%
Will Travis Kelce be the top Fantasy Tight End? Jan 29 $3 $0 +0%
Another actor announced as next James Bond actor? Jan 29 $3 $0 +0%
Maduro out in 2024? Jan 29 $3 $0 +0%
Will Dalton Kincaid be the top Fantasy Tight End? Jan 29 $3 $0 +0%
Will Gold close at $3,000-3,100 at the end of 2024? Jan 29 $3 $0 +0%
Sam Altman out as OpenAI CEO in 2024? Jan 29 $4 $0 +0%
Will the Rams win the NFC Championship? Jan 29 $4 $0 +0%
Ansem criminal charges in 2024? Jan 29 $4 $0 +0%
Will the Indianapolis Colts win the AFC South? Dec 21 $3 $0 +0%
Democrats win popular vote by 4-5%? Dec 21 $3 $0 +0%
GOP wins popular vote by 0-1%? Dec 21 $4 $0 +0%
Will Trump announce Larry Kudlow as next Fed Chair? Dec 19 $0 $0 -2%
Will RB Leipzig win the Bundesliga? Dec 19 $1 $0 -1%
Will the Texans win the AFC Championship? Dec 19 $0 $0 -6%
Will $BITCOIN be listed first on Binance? Dec 09 $1 $0 -2%
Will the Commanders win Super Bowl 2025? Dec 09 $1 $0 -1%
Will Dak Prescott be the top Fantasy Quarterback? Dec 09 $1 $0 -0%
Will Bam Adebayo lead the NBA in Rebounds? Dec 09 $1 $0 -1%
Will Aaron Rodgers win NFL MVP for the 2024-25 season? Dec 09 $0 $0 -0%
Will Josh Jacobs be the top Fantasy Running Back? Dec 09 $1 $0 -1%
Will Jusuf Nurkic lead the NBA in Rebounds? Dec 09 $1 $0 -1%
Will the Packers win Super Bowl 2025? Dec 09 $0 $0 -1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the Miami Dolphins win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 99¢ $54 1h
Will the Miami Dolphins win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 99¢ $54 13h
Will Ségolène Royal win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $54 18d
Will Ségolène Royal win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $54 19d
Will Vivek Ramaswamy win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $54 32d
Will Vivek Ramaswamy win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $27 33d
Will Vivek Ramaswamy win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $27 33d
Will Poland win Eurovision 2026? SELL No 100¢ $54 38d
Will Poland win Eurovision 2026? BUY No 100¢ $54 39d
Will Switzerland win Eurovision 2026? SELL No 100¢ $54 40d
Will Switzerland win Eurovision 2026? BUY No 100¢ $54 41d
Will Bulgaria win Eurovision 2026? SELL No 99¢ $54 49d
Will Bulgaria win Eurovision 2026? BUY No 99¢ $54 49d
Will Élisabeth Borne win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $55 67d
Will Élisabeth Borne win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $55 67d
Will Ethereum reach $4,000 in April? SELL No 100¢ $55 71d
Will Ethereum reach $4,000 in April? BUY No 100¢ $24 71d
Will Ethereum reach $4,000 in April? BUY No 100¢ $31 71d
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 98¢ $55 83d
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 98¢ $55 83d
Will Eduardo Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL No 100¢ $55 95d
Will Eduardo Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY No 100¢ $55 96d
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 99¢ $55 100d
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $55 100d
Will Elon Musk win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $55 103d
Will Elon Musk win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $55 104d
Will Microsoft be the largest company in the world by market cap on Ma SELL No 100¢ $55 109d
Will Microsoft be the largest company in the world by market cap on Ma BUY No 100¢ $55 110d
Will Mark Kelly win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 98¢ $55 114d
Will Mark Kelly win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 98¢ $55 116d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 176 history records