Wallet analysis

2026-06-14T23:31:15+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
0F 0x0ff5…97df crypto 17 markets active 0h ago coverage 1d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
Total PnL +$7 (+13%) realized +$4 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +11% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -14% what you keep after slip
Net edge-14%after slip
Net WR45%break-even
Win rate55%6W / 5L
Drawdown61%max
Avg bet$3per market
Trades / day23.7pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit71%portable
Net worth$11now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$4
7 days+$4
14 days+$4
30 days+$4
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 51% $0
sports 21% +$5
other 20% −$1
politics 7% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +45%
net ROI/market (all)+0.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 11 +11.0% +0.5% 55% 45% -0.4%
≤30d 11 +11.0% +0.5% 55% 45% -0.4%
≤90d 11 +11.0% +0.5% 55% 45% -0.4%
all 11 +11.0% +0.5% 55% 45% -0.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover23.7 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +0.5% 45% -0.4%
10% ← realistic here -9.2% 36% -9.9%
15% -17.9% 36% -18.6%
20% -26.0% 36% -26.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 39% · top 2 63% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +10% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
17% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +11% · $-wt +10% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$1 · ×1.28 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.54 per $1 lost it wins $1.54
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$11
Realized+$4
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)55%
Wins / losses6 / 5
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions6
Markets (closed)11 / 17
History coverage1d
Avg bet$3
Trades / day23.7
Drawdown61%
Kalshi-fit71%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 6 History 11 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? Yes 89¢ 88¢ $4 $4 −$0 (-1%)
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? Yes 39¢ 34¢ $3 $3 −$0 (-12%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 16¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-2%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 16¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-3%)
UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card) Ciryl Gane 51¢ 50¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-3%)
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-3%)
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Yes 10¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
LoL: LYON vs Team Liquid (BO5) - LCS Playoffs Jun 14 $7 $0 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET Jun 14 $1 +$1 +60%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET Jun 14 $7 −$1 -10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET Jun 14 $6 −$3 -46%
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET Jun 14 $5 +$1 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET Jun 14 $5 +$4 +86%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -71%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET Jun 14 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Jalen Brunson win the 2026 NBA Finals MVP? Jun 14 $2 +$2 +102%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 14 $2 +$3 +172%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 39¢ $3 16m
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? SELL No 61¢ $3 17m
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? BUY No 63¢ $3 18m
Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the 2026 Colombian presidential ele BUY Yes 89¢ $4 20m
LoL: LYON vs Team Liquid (BO5) - LCS Playoffs SELL LYON 100¢ $7 27m
LoL: LYON vs Team Liquid (BO5) - LCS Playoffs BUY LYON 94¢ $7 57m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET SELL Down 45¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET BUY Down 73¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET SELL Up 21¢ $0 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET BUY Up 53¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET BUY Up 61¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET BUY Up 91¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET SELL Down 37¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET BUY Down 74¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET BUY Down 91¢ $1 1h
Exact Score: Any Other Score? BUY Yes 10¢ $1 2h
UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card) BUY Ciryl Gane 51¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET BUY Up 81¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET SELL Down 1¢ $0 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET BUY Down 3¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET BUY Up 52¢ $5 3h
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 16¢ $1 3h
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 16¢ $1 3h
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 2¢ $1 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET BUY Up 21¢ $2 5h
Will Jalen Brunson win the 2026 NBA Finals MVP? SELL Yes 100¢ $4 19h
Will Jalen Brunson win the 2026 NBA Finals MVP? BUY Yes 49¢ $2 28h
Knicks vs. Spurs BUY Knicks 36¢ $2 28h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $10.63 · official $10.63 (match) · 38 history records