Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T01:36:48+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
0F 0x0ff7…5131 other 126 markets active 0h ago coverage 15d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$660 (-2%) realized −$631 · open −$29
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -17% what you keep after slip
Net edge-17%after slip
Net WR43%break-even
Win rate76%87W / 27L
Whale WR80%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$214per market
Trades / day19.4pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit38%portable
Net worth$2,978now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$282
7 days−$282
14 days−$653
30 days−$653
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 74% +$798
finance 16% −$1,630
world 5% +$144
economics 4% −$2
crypto 0% +$5
tech 0% $0
sports 0% +$3
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +43%
net ROI/market (all)-10.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 56 -10.3% -18.9% 71% 32% -11.1%
≤30d 114 -0.8% -10.3% 76% 43% -12.0%
≤90d 114 -0.8% -10.3% 76% 43% -12.0%
all 114 -0.8% -10.3% 76% 43% -12.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover19.4 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.3% 43% -12.0%
10% -18.9% 17% -20.4%
15% -26.7% 6% -28.1%
20% -33.9% 2% -35.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 7% · top 2 14% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
43% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt -3% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 80% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +8% → late -10% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.8 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$17 vs −$78 · ×0.21 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.69 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

15d coverage
Net worth$2,978
Realized−$631
Unrealized−$29
Win rate (resolved)76%
Wins / losses87 / 27
Whale WR (big bets)80%
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions12
Markets (closed)114 / 126
History coverage15d
Avg bet$214
Trades / day19.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit38%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 12 History 114 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Curacao advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 97¢ 94¢ $1,100 $1,065 −$35 (-3%)
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-22? No 99¢ 99¢ $900 $898 −$2 (-0%)
Will Iraq advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 96¢ 97¢ $643 $649 +$6 (+1%)
Will Ronaldo Cry at the World Cup? Yes 72¢ 69¢ $217 $208 −$9 (-4%)
Will England reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 75¢ 86¢ $50 $57 +$7 (+14%)
Will Qatar advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 79¢ 87¢ $20 $22 +$2 (+9%)
Will Panama advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 89¢ 88¢ $20 $20 −$0 (-1%)
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-22? No 86¢ 86¢ $20 $20 −$0 (-1%)
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $90 in June? No 92¢ 97¢ $13 $14 +$1 (+5%)
Will Morocco advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 87¢ 100¢ $9 $10 +$1 (+15%)
Will Crude Oil reach a new all-time high by December 31? No 74¢ 84¢ $7 $8 +$1 (+14%)
Will Anthropic or OpenAI IPO first? Anthropic 83¢ 75¢ $8 $8 −$1 (-10%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Crude Oil reach a new all-time high by June 30? Jun 23 $100 +$2 +2%
Will France win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $1,083 +$104 +10%
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $1,623 +$22 +1%
Will Austria win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $18 +$2 +13%
Will Jordan advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 22 $20 +$1 +3%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $100 in June? Jun 22 $101 +$20 +20%
Will Ivory Coast advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Jun 22 $908 +$59 +6%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? Jun 22 $30 −$30 -100%
Will France reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 22 $42 +$1 +3%
Will Australia advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World C Jun 22 $40 +$2 +5%
Will Uruguay advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup Jun 22 $10 −$6 -64%
Silver (XAGUSD) Up or Down on June 22? Jun 22 $20 −$13 -63%
Gold (XAUUSD) Up or Down on June 22? Jun 22 $20 −$6 -29%
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-21? Jun 22 $271 +$30 +11%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $16 +$2 +12%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $19 +$2 +12%
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $1,702 +$56 +3%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $90 +$2 +2%
Will South Korea advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Jun 21 $100 −$1 -2%
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-20? Jun 21 $1,802 +$68 +4%
Will Ecuador advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup Jun 21 $50 −$34 -67%
Will Japan advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 21 $40 +$1 +2%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? Jun 21 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (LOW) $4,050 Week of June 8 2026? Jun 21 $20 −$20 -100%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 21 $50 −$50 -100%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 21 $70 −$70 -100%
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) Up or Down on June 18? Jun 21 $100 −$100 -100%
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $88 on June 11? Jun 21 $605 −$605 -100%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-20? Jun 21 $50 −$19 -39%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $10 +$2 +23%
Will Haiti advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 20 $10 $0 +4%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $43 +$5 +12%
Will Haiti win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $2,503 +$96 +4%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $20 +$4 +20%
Will Mexico advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 19 $50 +$4 +8%
Will Switzerland advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Jun 19 $20 +$2 +10%
Will Canada advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 19 $100 +$18 +18%
Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 19 $1,119 −$1 -0%
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $30 +$2 +7%
Gold (XAUUSD) Up or Down on June 18? Jun 18 $10 +$4 +43%
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $77 on June 18? Jun 18 $10 +$1 +11%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $30 +$5 +16%
Will Uzbekistan win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $602 +$54 +9%
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $606 +$44 +7%
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 17 $98 +$25 +25%
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $146 +$16 +11%
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $100 +$15 +14%
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $501 +$26 +5%
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) Up or Down on June 16? Jun 16 $201 +$17 +8%
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $81 on June 16? Jun 16 $100 +$7 +7%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-22? BUY No 99¢ $500 1m
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-22? BUY No 99¢ $200 10m
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-22? BUY No 86¢ $10 11m
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-22? BUY No 86¢ $10 11m
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-22? BUY No 99¢ $200 13m
Will Crude Oil reach a new all-time high by June 30? SELL No 99¢ $102 17m
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-22? SELL No 99¢ $1,645 1h
Will Austria win on 2026-06-22? BUY No 89¢ $10 10h
Will Jordan advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 87¢ $10 10h
Will France win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 91¢ $120 18h
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $100 in June? SELL No 98¢ $121 18h
Will Austria win on 2026-06-22? BUY No 88¢ $4 21h
Will France win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 91¢ $963 21h
Will Ivory Coast advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World SELL Yes 98¢ $967 21h
Will Iraq advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 96¢ $43 22h
Will France reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 86¢ $43 22h
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-22? BUY No 97¢ $42 22h
Will Australia advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World C SELL Yes 92¢ $42 22h
Will Austria win on 2026-06-22? BUY No 87¢ $4 23h
Will Uruguay advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup SELL Yes 33¢ $4 23h
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-22? BUY No 98¢ $500 23h
Will Iraq advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 96¢ $601 23h
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? BUY No 77¢ $10 23h
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-22? BUY No 98¢ $1,001 24h
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? BUY No 72¢ $10 24h
Silver (XAGUSD) Up or Down on June 22? SELL Down 26¢ $7 24h
Gold (XAUUSD) Up or Down on June 22? SELL Down 50¢ $14 24h
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-22? BUY No 98¢ $80 24h
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? BUY No 72¢ $10 24h
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-21? BUY No 89¢ $8 44h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $2,978.02 · official $2,979.87 (match) · 352 history records