Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T22:36:14+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
10 0x1001…0cf1 sports 57 markets active 0h ago coverage 3d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real! high turnover
Total PnL +$86 (+5%) realized +$139 · open −$53
Gross ROI / mkt +21% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -7% what you keep after slip
Net edge-7%after slip
Net WR46%break-even
Win rate50%27W / 27L
Drawdown69%max
Avg bet$32per market
Trades / day35.2pace
Fees−$40est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$41now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 3d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 100% +$48
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +46%
net ROI/market (all)+9.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 54 +21.0% +9.5% 50% 46% -4.2%
≤30d 54 +21.0% +9.5% 50% 46% -4.2%
≤90d 54 +21.0% +9.5% 50% 46% -4.2%
all 54 +21.0% +9.5% 50% 46% -4.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover35.2 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +9.5% 46% -4.2%
10% ← realistic here -1.0% 39% -13.3%
15% -10.6% 37% -21.7%
20% -19.3% 28% -29.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 16% · top 2 25% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +7% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
7% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +21% · $-wt +7% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +76% → late -34% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$20 vs −$17 · ×1.22 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.22 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

3d coverage
Net worth$41
Realized+$139
Unrealized−$53
Win rate (resolved)50%
Wins / losses27 / 27
Est. fees paid−$40
Open positions2
Markets (closed)54 / 57
History coverage3d
Avg bet$32
Trades / day35.2
Drawdown69%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 54 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Valorant: M80 vs SaD Esports - Map 1 Winner SaD Esports 24¢ 32¢ $31 $41 +$10 (+34%)
Valorant: 9z Team vs OXEN (BO3) - VCL Latin America South: Regular Season OXEN 46¢ $63 $0 −$63 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 22 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Valorant: Nightblood Gaming vs QoR - Map 2 Winner Jun 18 $66 +$34 +52%
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 4.5 Jun 18 $29 −$28 -98%
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 1.5 Jun 18 $62 +$29 +46%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs Jun 18 $41 −$40 -98%
Counter-Strike: 100 Thieves vs Leo Team (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 P Jun 18 $9 −$9 -97%
Switzerland vs. Bosnia-Herzegovina: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 18 $34 −$34 -99%
Counter-Strike: 100 Thieves vs Leo Team - Map 2 Winner Jun 18 $20 +$14 +66%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z - Map 2 Winner Jun 18 $27 −$27 -98%
Czechia vs. South Africa: O/U 1.5 Jun 18 $28 +$20 +70%
Dota 2: Team Resilience vs Yakult Brothers - Game 2 Winner Jun 18 $50 −$49 -98%
Dota 2: Team Resilience vs Yakult Brothers - Game 1 Winner Jun 18 $51 −$24 -47%
England vs. Croatia: O/U 5.5 Jun 17 $35 +$42 +119%
England vs. Croatia: O/U 6.5 Jun 17 $10 −$10 -98%
England vs. Croatia: O/U 7.5 Jun 17 $9 −$9 -97%
England vs. Croatia: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $117 +$88 +75%
Counter-Strike: KOLESIE vs illwill (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Group Jun 17 $23 −$6 -25%
Valorant: KRÜ Spark vs BESTIA - Map 1 Winner Jun 17 $28 +$25 +87%
Counter-Strike: KOLESIE vs illwill - Map 1 Winner Jun 17 $1 −$1 -97%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $30 −$30 -99%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 3.5 Jun 17 $19 −$19 -98%
Nottingham Open: Talia Gibson vs Qinwen Zheng Jun 17 $3 −$3 -98%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $23 −$21 -88%
Brescia: Fiona Ferro vs Ekaterine Gorgodze Jun 17 $36 +$3 +8%
Set 1 Winner: Badosa vs Gauff Jun 17 $10 −$10 -97%
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Dplus KIA Challengers - Game 2 Winner Jun 17 $16 −$16 -99%
Honor of Kings: Dragon Ranger Gaming vs Talent Gaming - Game 1 Winner Jun 17 $8 +$8 +95%
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 3.5 Jun 17 $15 +$13 +88%
Spread: Austria (-1.5) AND Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 2.5 AND Spread: France Jun 17 $10 +$4 +42%
Austria vs. Jordan: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 17 $24 +$17 +70%
Iraq vs. Norway: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 17 $35 +$19 +55%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 0.5 Jun 16 $25 +$10 +41%
Figueira Da Foz: Jeline Vandromme vs Allura Zamarripa Jun 16 $19 +$5 +26%
France vs. Senegal: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 16 $7 −$7 -98%
Counter-Strike: Team Nemesis vs Infinite - Map 1 Winner Jun 16 $10 −$10 -98%
Valorant: Team Vitality vs FUT Esports - Map 2 Winner Jun 16 $35 −$10 -28%
Valorant: Team Vitality vs FUT Esports - Map 1 Winner Jun 16 $24 −$20 -81%
Dota 2: 4ikibamboni vs Spirit Academy (BO3) - European Pro League Grou Jun 16 $58 +$52 +89%
Valorant: XLG Gaming vs Leviatán Esports - Map 2 Winner Jun 16 $8 −$8 -97%
Dota 2: Yakult Brothers vs Vici Gaming - Game 2 Winner Jun 16 $35 +$32 +92%
Valorant: XLG Gaming vs Leviatán Esports - Map 1 Winner Jun 16 $58 −$5 -9%
Dota 2: Yakult Brothers vs Vici Gaming - Game 1 Winner Jun 16 $10 −$10 -99%
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 4.5 Jun 16 $28 −$28 -99%
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 16 $45 +$33 +73%
San Diego Padres vs. St. Louis Cardinals: O/U 5.5 Jun 16 $7 −$2 -26%
Valorant: Paper Rex vs Team Vitality - Map 2 Winner Jun 15 $112 +$23 +21%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 - Map 2 Winner Jun 15 $108 +$23 +21%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 - Map 1 Winner Jun 15 $35 +$17 +47%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 0.5 Jun 15 $14 +$22 +158%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 15 $28 −$15 -52%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FUT Esports - Map 2 Winner Jun 15 $24 +$4 +17%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Valorant: M80 vs SaD Esports - Map 1 Winner BUY SaD Esports 24¢ $32 4m
Valorant: Nightblood Gaming vs QoR - Map 2 Winner SELL Nightblood Gaming 59¢ $26 46m
Valorant: 9z Team vs OXEN (BO3) - VCL Latin America South: Regular Sea BUY OXEN 46¢ $64 51m
Valorant: Nightblood Gaming vs QoR - Map 2 Winner BUY Nightblood Gaming 38¢ $17 53m
Valorant: 9z Team vs OXEN (BO3) - VCL Latin America South: Regular Sea SELL OXEN 63¢ $2 55m
Valorant: Nightblood Gaming vs QoR - Map 2 Winner SELL Nightblood Gaming 25¢ $0 58m
Valorant: 9z Team vs OXEN (BO3) - VCL Latin America South: Regular Sea SELL OXEN 74¢ $85 59m
Valorant: 9z Team vs OXEN (BO3) - VCL Latin America South: Regular Sea BUY OXEN 62¢ $75 1h
Valorant: Nightblood Gaming vs QoR - Map 2 Winner SELL Nightblood Gaming 66¢ $75 1h
Valorant: Nightblood Gaming vs QoR - Map 2 Winner BUY Nightblood Gaming 42¢ $49 1h
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 4.5 BUY Under 15¢ $29 1h
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 1.5 SELL Over 99¢ $28 1h
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 46¢ $13 1h
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 1.5 SELL Over 49¢ $63 2h
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 37¢ $49 2h
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs BUY 9z 18¢ $41 2h
Counter-Strike: 100 Thieves vs Leo Team (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 P BUY Leo Team $9 2h
Switzerland vs. Bosnia-Herzegovina: 1st Half O/U 0.5 BUY Over 63¢ $34 3h
Counter-Strike: 100 Thieves vs Leo Team - Map 2 Winner SELL Leo Team 38¢ $34 4h
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z - Map 2 Winner BUY 9z 49¢ $27 4h
Counter-Strike: 100 Thieves vs Leo Team - Map 2 Winner BUY Leo Team 22¢ $20 4h
Czechia vs. South Africa: O/U 1.5 SELL Over 100¢ $48 4h
Czechia vs. South Africa: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 58¢ $28 5h
Dota 2: Team Resilience vs Yakult Brothers - Game 2 Winner BUY Yakult Brothers 39¢ $50 15h
Dota 2: Team Resilience vs Yakult Brothers - Game 1 Winner BUY Yakult Brothers 45¢ $24 16h
Dota 2: Team Resilience vs Yakult Brothers - Game 1 Winner SELL Team Resilience 55¢ $24 16h
Dota 2: Team Resilience vs Yakult Brothers - Game 1 Winner BUY Team Resilience 58¢ $26 16h
England vs. Croatia: O/U 5.5 SELL Over 100¢ $76 24h
England vs. Croatia: O/U 5.5 BUY Over 45¢ $35 25h
England vs. Croatia: O/U 6.5 BUY Over 20¢ $10 25h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $41.39 · official $41.39 (match) · 121 history records