Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T18:39:02+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
10 0x1002…8523 world 53 markets active 2h ago coverage 271d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$22 (-1%) realized −$22 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -11% what you keep after slip
Net edge-11%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate22%11W / 40L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$30per market
Trades / day0.7pace
Kalshi-fit68%portable
Net worth$48now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$4
7 days−$1
14 days−$1
30 days−$4
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 44% −$7
other 30% −$1
politics 12% $0
sports 7% −$14
crypto 3% $0
culture 3% $0
economics 2% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-11.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 9 -0.8% -10.3% 56% 0% -9.7%
≤30d 22 -1.0% -10.4% 32% 0% -9.9%
≤90d 22 -1.0% -10.4% 32% 0% -9.9%
all 51 -1.7% -11.0% 22% 0% -10.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.7 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -11.0% 0% -10.8%
10% -19.6% 0% -19.4%
15% -27.3% 0% -27.1%
20% -34.5% 0% -34.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 54% · top 2 70% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -1% → late -3% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$1 · ×0.47 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.21 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

271d coverage
Net worth$48
Realized−$22
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)22%
Wins / losses11 / 40
Open positions2
Markets (closed)51 / 53
History coverage271d
Avg bet$30
Trades / day0.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit68%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 51 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Cuban regime falls in 2026? No 80¢ 80¢ $48 $48 −$0 (-1%)
Will Erika Kirk win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? No 99¢ 99¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 Jun 23 $40 −$5 -14%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia Jun 23 $41 $0 +0%
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? Jun 22 $39 +$1 +2%
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? Jun 21 $97 $0 +0%
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? Jun 21 $56 $0 +0%
Israel closes its airspace by July 31? Jun 20 $11 $0 +0%
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? Jun 20 $41 +$3 +8%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Jun 19 $81 +$1 +1%
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 Jun 19 $15 −$1 -5%
Will Alberta join the US? Jun 03 $49 $0 -0%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 03 $41 −$1 -2%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? Jun 02 $3 $0 -1%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? Jun 01 $30 $0 -0%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Jun 01 $3 $0 +0%
Putin out as President of Russia by June 30? May 31 $17 $0 +0%
Israel closes its airspace by May 31? May 31 $104 $0 -0%
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? May 30 $14 −$1 -11%
US strike on Cuba by December 31? May 29 $23 $0 +0%
Will Mohammed bin Salman cease to be the de facto leader of Saudi Arab May 28 $38 $0 +0%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? May 28 $29 $0 -0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? May 26 $47 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? May 26 $19 $0 +0%
Will Barcelona win the 2025–26 La Liga? Mar 25 $33 −$14 -42%
Will Barcelona win on 2025-11-29? Jan 31 $34 −$3 -7%
Will Avatar: Fire and Ash win Best Picture at the 98th Academy Awards? Dec 29 $3 $0 -1%
Putin out as President of Russia in 2025? Dec 19 $7 $0 -0%
Will Arsenal win on 2025-11-23? Nov 24 $20 $0 -2%
Panthers vs. 49ers Nov 21 $23 $0 +0%
Will MetaMask launch a token by June 30? Nov 21 $23 $0 +0%
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Nov 20 $22 $0 +0%
Will the US confirm that aliens exist in 2025? Nov 20 $22 +$1 +3%
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Oct 19 $22 $0 -1%
Will Trump pardon Bob Menendez in 2025? Oct 10 $22 $0 +0%
Will the Tampa Bay Buccaneers win Super Bowl 2026? Oct 09 $31 $0 +0%
Will the Toronto Blue Jays win the 2025 World Series? Oct 09 $23 −$1 -3%
Will People's Party for Freedom and Democracy win the most seats in th Oct 08 $23 $0 -0%
Will Tucker Carlson win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Oct 08 $50 $0 -0%
Will Ivanka Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Oct 08 $23 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2025? Oct 08 $21 $0 +0%
Will the Boston Red Sox win the 2025 World Series? Oct 02 $5 $0 -9%
Will Avatar 3 be the top grossing movie of 2025? Oct 01 $20 $0 -0%
Will Polymarket US go live in 2025? Oct 01 $26 −$1 -3%
Will the Washington Commanders win Super Bowl 2026? Sep 30 $26 $0 +0%
Will 5 Fed rate cuts happen in 2025? Sep 29 $27 $0 +0%
Will Steve Bannon win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Sep 28 $27 $0 -0%
Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Sep 27 $26 $0 +0%
Will the Chicago Cubs win the 2025 World Series? Sep 27 $7 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $130K in September? Sep 27 $27 $0 +0%
Will the Philadelphia 76ers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Sep 26 $27 $0 -0%
Will Zelenskyy and Putin meet next in Qatar / UAE? Sep 26 $27 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Cuban regime falls in 2026? BUY No 80¢ $48 2h
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL Yes 45¢ $34 3h
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL Yes 45¢ $0 3h
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY Yes 52¢ $40 6h
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL Yes 60¢ $19 13h
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL Yes 60¢ $13 13h
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL Yes 60¢ $9 13h
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY Yes 60¢ $3 15h
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY Yes 60¢ $23 15h
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY Yes 60¢ $14 15h
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? SELL No 87¢ $1 40h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL No 93¢ $46 47h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL No 93¢ $6 47h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? BUY No 93¢ $52 2d
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL Yes 11¢ $5 2d
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY Yes 10¢ $4 2d
Israel closes its airspace by July 31? SELL Yes 16¢ $11 3d
Israel closes its airspace by July 31? BUY Yes 16¢ $1 3d
Israel closes its airspace by July 31? BUY Yes 16¢ $9 3d
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL No 89¢ $41 3d
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL No 89¢ $11 3d
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY No 89¢ $51 3d
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? SELL Yes 26¢ $3 3d
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? SELL Yes 27¢ $8 3d
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? SELL Yes 27¢ $16 3d
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? SELL Yes 27¢ $18 3d
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? BUY Yes 25¢ $41 3d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL No 58¢ $54 4d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY No 57¢ $53 4d
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL Yes 18¢ $9 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $48.20 · official $47.70 (match) · 214 history records