Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T21:52:20+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
10 0x1003…dfb7 other 23 markets active 0h ago coverage 718d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$460 (-15%) realized −$455 · open −$5
Gross ROI / mkt -13% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -21% what you keep after slip
Net edge-21%after slip
Net WR32%break-even
Win rate32%7W / 15L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$130per market
Trades / day0.1pace
Fees−$33est.
Kalshi-fit65%portable
Net worth$45now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$108
7 days−$95
14 days−$95
30 days−$95
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 33% −$507
other 25% −$38
sports 24% +$1
politics 16% +$227
world 2% −$45
economics 1% −$18
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +32%
net ROI/market (all)-20.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 13 -27.6% -34.5% 38% 38% -16.1%
≤30d 13 -27.6% -34.5% 38% 38% -16.1%
≤90d 13 -27.6% -34.5% 38% 38% -16.1%
all 22 -12.6% -20.9% 32% 32% -22.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -20.9% 32% -22.7%
10% -28.5% 32% -30.1%
15% -35.4% 23% -36.8%
20% -41.7% 23% -43.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 50% · top 2 66% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -10% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -13% · $-wt -16% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -11% → late -14% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.1 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$85 vs −$65 · ×1.32 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.61 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

718d coverage
Net worth$45
Realized−$455
Unrealized−$5
Win rate (resolved)32%
Wins / losses7 / 15
Est. fees paid−$33
Open positions1
Markets (closed)22 / 23
History coverage718d
Avg bet$130
Trades / day0.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit65%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 22 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? Yes 14¢ 12¢ $50 $45 −$5 (-11%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 6 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $51 +$60 +117%
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $152 +$49 +32%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $289 +$91 +32%
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? Jun 16 $160 −$80 -50%
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $62 −$58 -94%
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? Jun 16 $31 +$46 +150%
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $10 −$10 -98%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $46 −$45 -99%
Jerome Powell out as Fed Chair in 2025? Jun 15 $18 −$18 -100%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $107 −$107 -100%
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? Jun 15 $47 +$40 +86%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $78 −$53 -68%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $11 −$10 -94%
Bitcoin above $94,000 on January 3? Jan 02 $541 −$153 -28%
Ethereum all time high in 2024? Dec 25 $430 −$353 -82%
Will Robert F. Kennedy Jr. win the 2024 US Presidential Election? Jul 21 $10 −$5 -53%
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2024 US Presidential Election? Jul 21 $100 −$54 -54%
Will Michelle Obama win the 2024 US Presidential Election? Jul 21 $30 −$20 -66%
Will Hillary Clinton win the 2024 US Presidential Election? Jul 21 $3 +$8 +265%
Will Joe Biden win the 2024 US Presidential Election? Jul 21 $7 $0 -1%
Will Kamala Harris win the 2024 US Presidential Election? Jul 18 $282 +$300 +106%
Will any other Democratic Politician win the 2024 US Presidential Elec Jul 03 $50 −$2 -3%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? SELL Yes 12¢ $42 5m
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? BUY Yes 14¢ $103 26m
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? SELL Yes 32¢ $216 1h
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? BUY Yes 16¢ $113 1h
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? SELL Yes 31¢ $365 1h
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 16¢ $111 1h
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? BUY Yes 16¢ $103 1h
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes $51 1h
Will England win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 77¢ $201 1h
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? BUY Yes 26¢ $153 12h
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 57¢ $152 12h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 80¢ $119 25h
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? SELL Yes 35¢ $69 25h
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 13¢ $62 31h
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? BUY Yes 22¢ $160 31h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 67¢ $289 31h
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? SELL Yes 72¢ $76 42h
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 19¢ $10 2d
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? BUY Yes 28¢ $31 2d
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 55¢ $46 2d
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? SELL Yes 86¢ $12 2d
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? BUY Yes 74¢ $10 2d
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? SELL Yes 18¢ $10 2d
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? SELL Yes 65¢ $45 2d
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 37¢ $20 2d
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? SELL Yes 45¢ $31 2d
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? BUY Yes 29¢ $15 2d
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? SELL Yes 41¢ $12 2d
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 14¢ $11 2d
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? BUY Yes 23¢ $21 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $44.64 · official $48.22 · 87 history records