Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T07:06:24+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
10 0x100b…53f2 other 14 markets active 1h ago coverage 2d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ only 2d of captured history — unreliable✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$24 (-3%) realized −$19 · open −$5
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +39% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +16% what you keep after slip
Net edge+16%after slip
Net WR50%break-even
Win rate50%4W / 4L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$59per market
Trades / day12.8pace
Kalshi-fit7%portable
Net worth$307now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 2d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 85% −$30
world 15% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +50%
net ROI/market (all)+25.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 8 +38.9% +25.6% 50% 50% -14.3%
≤30d 8 +38.9% +25.6% 50% 50% -14.3%
≤90d 8 +38.9% +25.6% 50% 50% -14.3%
all 8 +38.9% +25.6% 50% 50% -14.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover12.8 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to15%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +25.6% 50% -14.3%
10% +13.6% 50% -22.5%
15% +2.6% 50% -30.0%
20% -7.4% 50% -36.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 56% · top 2 75% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -5% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +39% · $-wt -5% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$72 vs −$79 · ×0.92 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.92 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

2d coverage
Net worth$307
Realized−$19
Unrealized−$5
Win rate (resolved)50%
Wins / losses4 / 4
Open positions6
Markets (closed)8 / 14
History coverage2d
Avg bet$59
Trades / day12.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit7%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 6 History 8 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? Yes 51¢ 50¢ $124 $123 −$1 (-1%)
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Yes 62¢ 62¢ $69 $69 −$0 (-0%)
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? Yes 16¢ 16¢ $50 $48 −$2 (-3%)
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? Yes 12¢ 12¢ $30 $28 −$2 (-7%)
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Yes 67¢ 66¢ $20 $20 −$0 (-1%)
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Yes 71¢ 70¢ $19 $19 −$0 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 4 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $61 +$57 +93%
Will Tunisia win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $49 −$48 -98%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $50 −$49 -98%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $122 −$119 -98%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $38 +$46 +123%
Will Australia win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $36 +$161 +442%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $49 +$26 +53%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $101 −$100 -99%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 12¢ $20 54m
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 51¢ $46 55m
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 16¢ $51 56m
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 51¢ $50 57m
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 62¢ $50 57m
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 71¢ $19 2h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 67¢ $20 2h
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 51¢ $30 2h
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 13¢ $10 2h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 61¢ $20 2h
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 100¢ $118 2h
Will Tunisia win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 22¢ $49 17h
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 38¢ $50 17h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 27¢ $50 17h
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 51¢ $61 17h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 27¢ $72 17h
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? SELL No 100¢ $84 25h
Will Australia win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 100¢ $198 25h
Will Australia win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 18¢ $36 27h
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? BUY No 44¢ $38 27h
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? SELL Yes 99¢ $74 28h
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 64¢ $49 44h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 58¢ $101 44h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $307.36 · official $307.36 (match) · 24 history records