Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T12:51:24+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
10 0x100d…8c48 other 23 markets active 2h ago coverage 14d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit from just two bets (not replicable)✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! limited sample (<25 closed)! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$19 (-55%) realized −$19 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -59% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -63% what you keep after slip
Net edge-63%after slip
Net WR19%break-even
Win rate19%4W / 17L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$2per market
Trades / day1.9pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit43%portable
Net worth$2now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$1
7 days−$6
14 days−$20
30 days−$20
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 38% −$9
sports 32% $0
crypto 30% −$10
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +19%
net ROI/market (all)-63.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 13 -55.4% -59.7% 23% 23% -45.0%
≤30d 21 -59.4% -63.3% 19% 19% -64.6%
≤90d 21 -59.4% -63.3% 19% 19% -64.6%
all 21 -59.4% -63.3% 19% 19% -64.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.9 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -63.3% 19% -64.6%
10% -66.8% 19% -68.0%
15% -70.0% 14% -71.1%
20% -73.0% 14% -73.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 38% · top 2 72% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -61% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -59% · $-wt -61% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -60% → late -59% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$1 · ×0.89 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.21 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

14d coverage
Net worth$2
Realized−$19
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)19%
Wins / losses4 / 17
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions2
Markets (closed)21 / 23
History coverage14d
Avg bet$2
Trades / day1.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit43%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 21 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Yes 57¢ 56¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-1%)
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-17? Yes $1 $1 −$0 (-6%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 16 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $1 −$1 -97%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $1 +$1 +93%
Will Tunisia win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $1 −$1 -98%
Mobile Legends Bang Bang: ONIC vs Bigetron by Vitality (BO7) - MPL Ind Jun 14 $2 +$2 +97%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -98%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $1 −$1 -99%
Mobile Legends Bang Bang: Geek Fam ID vs Bigetron by Vitality (BO7) - Jun 13 $1 −$1 -98%
Mobile Legends Bang Bang: Geek Fam ID vs ONIC (BO5) - MPL Indonesia Pl Jun 12 $1 −$1 -98%
Mobile Legends Bang Bang: Team Liquid ID vs Bigetron by Vitality (BO5) Jun 12 $1 −$1 -98%
Mobile Legends Bang Bang: ONIC vs Bigetron by Vitality (BO5) - MPL Ind Jun 11 $2 −$1 -34%
Mobile Legends Bang Bang: Team Liquid ID vs Geek Fam ID (BO5) - MPL In Jun 11 $2 $0 +23%
Will Nigeria win on 2026-06-10? Jun 10 $1 −$1 -97%
Mobile Legends Bang Bang: Dewa United Esports vs Geek Fam ID (BO5) - M Jun 10 $1 +$2 +172%
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-12? Jun 10 $1 −$1 -98%
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-11? Jun 10 $1 −$1 -97%
Mobile Legends Bang Bang: Bigetron by Vitality vs EVOS (BO5) - MPL Ind Jun 09 $1 −$1 -98%
Will Denmark win on 2026-06-03? Jun 03 $1 −$1 -99%
Will Poland win on 2026-06-03? Jun 03 $1 −$1 -98%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-03? Jun 03 $5 −$5 -99%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 3, 10:30AM-10:45AM ET Jun 03 $5 −$5 -95%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 57¢ $1 1h
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes $1 8h
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 11¢ $1 12h
Will Tunisia win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 21¢ $1 2d
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 51¢ $1 2d
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 27¢ $1 3d
Mobile Legends Bang Bang: ONIC vs Bigetron by Vitality (BO7) - MPL Ind BUY Bigetron by Vitality 25¢ $1 3d
Mobile Legends Bang Bang: ONIC vs Bigetron by Vitality (BO7) - MPL Ind BUY ONIC 79¢ $1 3d
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 82¢ $1 3d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 59¢ $1 3d
Mobile Legends Bang Bang: Geek Fam ID vs Bigetron by Vitality (BO7) - BUY Geek Fam ID 36¢ $1 4d
Mobile Legends Bang Bang: Geek Fam ID vs ONIC (BO5) - MPL Indonesia Pl BUY Geek Fam ID 25¢ $1 5d
Mobile Legends Bang Bang: Team Liquid ID vs Bigetron by Vitality (BO5) BUY Team Liquid ID 42¢ $1 5d
Mobile Legends Bang Bang: ONIC vs Bigetron by Vitality (BO5) - MPL Ind BUY ONIC 75¢ $1 6d
Mobile Legends Bang Bang: Team Liquid ID vs Geek Fam ID (BO5) - MPL In BUY Team Liquid ID 61¢ $1 6d
Mobile Legends Bang Bang: Team Liquid ID vs Geek Fam ID (BO5) - MPL In BUY Geek Fam ID 40¢ $1 6d
Mobile Legends Bang Bang: ONIC vs Bigetron by Vitality (BO5) - MPL Ind BUY Bigetron by Vitality 29¢ $1 6d
Will Nigeria win on 2026-06-10? BUY Yes $1 6d
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 24¢ $1 7d
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 11¢ $1 7d
Mobile Legends Bang Bang: Bigetron by Vitality vs EVOS (BO5) - MPL Ind BUY EVOS 51¢ $1 7d
Mobile Legends Bang Bang: Dewa United Esports vs Geek Fam ID (BO5) - M BUY Geek Fam ID 36¢ $1 7d
Will Denmark win on 2026-06-03? BUY Yes 62¢ $1 13d
Will Poland win on 2026-06-03? BUY Yes 46¢ $1 13d
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-03? BUY Yes 78¢ $5 13d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 3, 10:30AM-10:45AM ET BUY Up 22¢ $5 13d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1.93 · official $1.93 (match) · 31 history records