Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T16:35:22+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.0
score
10 0x1015…c873 sports 884 markets active 2h ago coverage 217d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$3,304 (-4%) realized −$3,276 · open −$28
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -7% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -22% what you keep after slip
Net edge-22%after slip
Net WR40%break-even
Win rate41%348W / 498L
Whale WR33%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$101per market
Trades / day10.6pace
Fees−$463est.
Kalshi-fit90%portable
Net worth$80now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$140
7 days+$104
14 days+$528
30 days+$458
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 99% −$3,183
other 1% −$154
world 0% −$30
crypto 0% −$11
politics 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +40%
net ROI/market (all)-16.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 33 -12.7% -21.0% 21% 21% +8.8%
≤30d 82 -4.2% -13.4% 21% 20% +6.9%
≤90d 318 -6.6% -15.5% 36% 35% -11.1%
all 846 -7.1% -16.0% 41% 40% -12.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover10.6 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -16.0% 40% -12.2%
10% -24.0% 39% -20.6%
15% -31.4% 39% -28.3%
20% -38.1% 38% -35.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 2% · top 2 3% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
2% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -7% · $-wt -4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 33% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -9% → late -6% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.3 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$120 vs −$91 · ×1.31 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.93 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

217d coverage
Net worth$80
Realized−$3,276
Unrealized−$28
Win rate (resolved)41%
Wins / losses348 / 498
Whale WR (big bets)33%
Est. fees paid−$463
Open positions9
Markets (closed)846 / 884
History coverage217d
Avg bet$101
Trades / day10.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit90%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 9 History 846 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? Yes 66¢ 66¢ $53 $52 −$0 (-1%)
Will Cristiano Ronaldo score 6+ goals during the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 87¢ 89¢ $7 $7 +$0 (+2%)
Will Vinicius Jr. score 5+ goals during the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 23¢ 29¢ $5 $6 +$1 (+26%)
Will Christian Pulisic score 2+ goals during the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 51¢ 28¢ $10 $6 −$5 (-44%)
Will Casemiro score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 33¢ 20¢ $7 $4 −$3 (-39%)
Will Vinicius Jr. score 6+ goals during the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 12¢ $3 $2 −$1 (-22%)
Will Wilson Isidor score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 37¢ 8¢ $7 $2 −$6 (-78%)
Will Cristiano Ronaldo score 6+ goals during the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 10¢ 11¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+12%)
Will Florian Wirtz score 4+ goals during the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 22¢ 1¢ $4 $0 −$4 (-94%)
Will Canada be an advancing Group Stage third-place team at the 2026 World Cup? Yes 56¢ 0¢ $11 $0 −$11 (-99%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 456 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Jordan vs. Algeria: O/U 2.5 Jun 23 $51 +$49 +97%
Exact Score: Jordan 2 - 0 Algeria? Jun 23 $7 −$7 -97%
Exact Score: Jordan 2 - 1 Algeria? Jun 23 $7 −$7 -97%
Norway vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 Jun 23 $88 +$76 +86%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? Jun 22 $51 +$30 +59%
Exact Score: New Zealand 2 - 2 Egypt? Jun 22 $3 +$5 +181%
Exact Score: New Zealand 3 - 2 Egypt? Jun 22 $3 −$3 -97%
Exact Score: New Zealand 2 - 3 Egypt? Jun 22 $3 −$3 -97%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $44 −$43 -98%
Exact Score: Ecuador 2 - 1 Curaçao? Jun 20 $9 −$9 -97%
Exact Score: Netherlands 3 - 2 Sweden? Jun 20 $11 −$11 -97%
Exact Score: Germany 0 - 0 Côte d'Ivoire? Jun 20 $1 −$1 -100%
Exact Score: Türkiye 0 - 2 Paraguay? Jun 20 $14 −$5 -34%
Exact Score: Scotland 0 - 2 Morocco? Jun 19 $9 −$9 -100%
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 3.5 Jun 19 $30 −$30 -99%
Exact Score: United States 3 - 2 Australia? Jun 19 $1 −$1 -97%
Exact Score: United States 1 - 3 Australia? Jun 19 $1 −$1 -97%
Spread: Australia (-1.5) Jun 19 $18 −$17 -97%
Will Mexico vs. Korea Republic end in a draw? Jun 19 $14 −$14 -98%
Exact Score: Czechia 1 - 2 South Africa? Jun 18 $6 −$6 -97%
Exact Score: Czechia 0 - 2 South Africa? Jun 18 $6 −$6 -97%
Exact Score: Czechia 0 - 1 South Africa? Jun 18 $6 −$6 -97%
Spread: South Africa (-1.5) Jun 18 $29 −$28 -97%
Exact Score: Uzbekistan 1 - 3 Colombia? Jun 18 $14 +$42 +304%
Exact Score: Uzbekistan 1 - 0 Colombia? Jun 18 $4 −$4 -97%
Exact Score: Uzbekistan 2 - 1 Colombia? Jun 18 $11 −$10 -97%
Exact Score: Ghana 3 - 2 Panama? Jun 17 $7 −$7 -100%
Exact Score: Austria 3 - 1 Jordan? Jun 17 $7 +$80 +1116%
Exact Score: Austria 3 - 2 Jordan? Jun 17 $7 −$7 -97%
Exact Score: Argentina 1 - 1 Algeria? Jun 17 $22 −$21 -97%
Exact Score: Argentina 3 - 3 Algeria? Jun 17 $6 −$6 -97%
Exact Score: Argentina 0 - 2 Algeria? Jun 17 $6 −$6 -97%
Spread: Norway (-2.5) AND Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $29 +$88 +309%
Exact Score: IR Iran 3 - 2 New Zealand? Jun 16 $14 +$57 +393%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $74 −$73 -98%
Exact Score: IR Iran 2 - 1 New Zealand? Jun 16 $14 −$14 -97%
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $14 −$14 -98%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $14 −$14 -98%
Exact Score: Sweden 2 - 3 Tunisia? Jun 15 $10 −$10 -97%
Will Shogo Taniguchi be in Japan's Starting 11? Jun 14 $17 +$3 +18%
Spread: Australia (-1.5) Jun 14 $29 +$270 +937%
Will Gustavo Puerta be in Colombia's Starting 11? Jun 14 $4 −$1 -23%
Will Scotland be eliminated in Group Stage stage of the World Cup? Jun 14 $19 −$3 -15%
Will 9+ matches go to extra time during the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 14 $1 $0 -6%
Will Iñaki Williams score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 14 $6 $0 -2%
Will Richard Ríos be in Colombia's Starting 11? Jun 14 $18 $0 +0%
Will Bradley Barcola be in France's Starting 11? Jun 14 $7 $0 -5%
Will South Korea be the furthest advancing AFC nation at the World Cup Jun 14 $11 −$1 -8%
Will Saudi Arabia be eliminated in the Round of 32 of the World Cup? Jun 14 $14 $0 -2%
Will Julián Alvarez be in Argentina's Starting 11? Jun 14 $13 −$13 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 66¢ $53 1h
Exact Score: Jordan 2 - 0 Algeria? BUY Yes 8¢ $7 12h
Exact Score: Jordan 2 - 1 Algeria? BUY Yes 4¢ $7 14h
Jordan vs. Algeria: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 50¢ $51 16h
Norway vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 53¢ $88 16h
Norway vs. Senegal: O/U 1.5 AND Will Jordan vs. Algeria end in a draw? BUY 4¢ $1 25h
Norway vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 AND Spread: France (-2.5) AND Will Algeria BUY 11¢ $1 25h
Spread: France (-3.5) AND Will Algeria win on 2026-06-22? BUY 13¢ $1 25h
Spread: France (-3.5) AND Norway vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 BUY 18¢ $1 25h
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-22? AND Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? BUY 13¢ $1 25h
Norway vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 AND Spread: France (-2.5) AND Will Argenti BUY 10¢ $1 25h
Spread: France (-3.5) AND Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? BUY 12¢ $1 26h
Spread: France (-3.5) AND Will Jordan vs. Algeria end in a draw? AND W BUY 1¢ $1 26h
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? SELL Yes 100¢ $80 37h
Exact Score: New Zealand 2 - 2 Egypt? SELL Yes 13¢ $3 38h
Exact Score: New Zealand 2 - 2 Egypt? SELL Yes 13¢ $5 38h
Exact Score: New Zealand 2 - 2 Egypt? BUY Yes 4¢ $3 39h
Exact Score: New Zealand 3 - 2 Egypt? BUY Yes 1¢ $3 39h
Exact Score: New Zealand 2 - 3 Egypt? BUY Yes 3¢ $3 39h
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 62¢ $20 40h
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 62¢ $30 40h
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 2.5 AND Spread: Spain (-1.5) AND Will Egyp BUY 14¢ $1 2d
Spread: Uruguay (-1.5) AND Spread: Belgium (-1.5) AND Spread: Spain (- BUY 9¢ $7 2d
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? BUY No 31¢ $44 2d
Exact Score: Ecuador 2 - 1 Curaçao? BUY Yes 8¢ $9 2d
Exact Score: Netherlands 3 - 2 Sweden? BUY Yes 5¢ $10 3d
Spread: Netherlands (-1.5) AND Spread: Ecuador (-1.5) AND Will Germany BUY 8¢ $1 3d
Exact Score: Germany 0 - 0 Côte d'Ivoire? BUY Yes 5¢ $1 3d
Exact Score: Netherlands 3 - 2 Sweden? BUY Yes 5¢ $1 3d
Exact Score: Türkiye 0 - 2 Paraguay? SELL Yes 5¢ $3 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $80.15 · official $80.55 (match) · 2618 history records