Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T02:30:18+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
10 0x1016…b09b other 18 markets active 2h ago coverage 2d
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable Fresh edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ only 2d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL +$437 (+13%) realized +$437 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -7% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -23% what you keep after slip
Net edge-23%after slip
Net WR44%break-even
Win rate44%8W / 10L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$193per market
Trades / day10.0pace
Fees−$26est.
Kalshi-fit44%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 2d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 60% +$4
other 40% +$859
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +44%
net ROI/market (all)-16.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 18 -7.3% -16.2% 44% 44% +13.1%
≤30d 18 -7.3% -16.2% 44% 44% +13.1%
≤90d 18 -7.3% -16.2% 44% 44% +13.1%
all 18 -7.3% -16.2% 44% 44% +13.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover10.0 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -16.2% 44% +13.1%
10% -24.2% 39% +2.2%
15% -31.5% 39% -7.6%
20% -38.2% 33% -16.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 24% · top 2 42% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +25% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -7% · $-wt +25% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -100% → late +85% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$231 vs −$98 · ×2.35 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.88 per $1 lost it wins $1.88
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

2d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$437
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)44%
Wins / losses8 / 10
Est. fees paid−$26
Open positions0
Markets (closed)18 / 18
History coverage2d
Avg bet$193
Trades / day10.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit44%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 18 Trades
no open positions (10 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Exact Score: Brazil 2 - 0 Haiti? Jun 20 $51 +$11 +22%
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? AND Will Morocco win on 2026-06- Jun 20 $204 +$327 +160%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $304 +$213 +70%
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $415 +$260 +63%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $303 +$173 +57%
Spread: Switzerland (-1.5) Jun 18 $102 +$168 +165%
Will Czechia vs. South Africa end in a draw? Jun 18 $86 +$248 +287%
Spread: Czechia (-1.5) Jun 18 $1,009 +$444 +44%
Exact Score: Switzerland 3 - 1 Bosnia-Herzegovina? Jun 18 $26 −$25 -97%
Exact Score: Switzerland 2 - 0 Bosnia-Herzegovina? Jun 18 $51 −$50 -98%
Spread: Colombia (-1.5) Jun 18 $284 −$280 -99%
Spread: England (-1.5) Jun 17 $186 −$184 -99%
Exact Score: England 1 - 1 Croatia? Jun 17 $31 −$30 -98%
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? Jun 17 $222 −$217 -98%
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) Jun 17 $144 −$142 -99%
Spread: Portugal (-2.5) Jun 17 $34 −$33 -98%
Exact Score: Portugal 3 - 1 DR Congo? Jun 17 $10 −$10 -97%
Exact Score: Portugal 3 - 0 DR Congo? Jun 17 $10 −$10 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Exact Score: Brazil 2 - 0 Haiti? SELL Yes 17¢ $63 1h
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 60¢ $101 8h
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? AND Will Morocco win on 2026-06- BUY 38¢ $204 9h
Exact Score: Brazil 2 - 0 Haiti? BUY Yes 13¢ $51 9h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 58¢ $304 12h
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 61¢ $314 18h
Spread: Switzerland (-1.5) BUY Switzerland 37¢ $102 32h
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 63¢ $303 32h
Exact Score: Switzerland 3 - 1 Bosnia-Herzegovina? BUY Yes 7¢ $26 32h
Exact Score: Switzerland 2 - 0 Bosnia-Herzegovina? BUY Yes 14¢ $51 32h
Will Czechia vs. South Africa end in a draw? BUY Yes 21¢ $20 33h
Spread: Czechia (-1.5) BUY South Africa 56¢ $203 34h
Will Czechia vs. South Africa end in a draw? BUY Yes 27¢ $66 37h
Spread: Czechia (-1.5) BUY South Africa 73¢ $806 37h
Spread: Colombia (-1.5) BUY Uzbekistan 54¢ $284 46h
Spread: England (-1.5) BUY Croatia 68¢ $186 2d
Exact Score: England 1 - 1 Croatia? BUY Yes 14¢ $31 2d
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? BUY Yes 26¢ $17 2d
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? BUY Yes 26¢ $204 2d
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) BUY Portugal 53¢ $33 2d
Spread: Portugal (-2.5) BUY Portugal 29¢ $34 2d
Exact Score: Portugal 3 - 1 DR Congo? BUY Yes 8¢ $10 2d
Exact Score: Portugal 3 - 0 DR Congo? BUY Yes 13¢ $10 2d
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) BUY Portugal 54¢ $112 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 32 history records