Wallet analysis

2026-06-27T18:35:31+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
10 0x1017…07c3 crypto 13 markets active 2h ago coverage 120d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$65 (-10%) realized −$65 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -12% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -21% what you keep after slip
Net edge-21%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate31%4W / 9L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$48per market
Trades / day0.6pace
Kalshi-fit85%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days−$0
14 days−$0
30 days−$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 62% −$54
crypto 15% $0
sports 11% −$3
politics 6% −$7
world 5% −$2
economics 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-20.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 -0.1% -9.6% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤30d 1 -0.1% -9.6% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤90d 5 -4.2% -13.4% 60% 0% -19.9%
all 13 -12.5% -20.8% 31% 0% -18.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.6 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -20.8% 0% -18.9%
10% -28.4% 0% -26.6%
15% -35.3% 0% -33.7%
20% -41.7% 0% -40.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 56% · top 2 71% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -12% too few recent
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -12% · $-wt -10% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -17% → late -8% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.8 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$11 · ×0.0 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.0 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

120d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$65
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)31%
Wins / losses4 / 9
Open positions0
Markets (closed)13 / 13
History coverage120d
Avg bet$48
Trades / day0.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit85%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 13 Trades
no open positions (1 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Xi Jinping out by June 30? Jun 27 $138 $0 -0%
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? May 05 $251 −$54 -21%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on April 19? May 05 $28 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,600 on April 3? Apr 07 $28 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,900 on March 25? Apr 02 $24 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on March 19? Mar 25 $12 $0 +1%
Will the Philadelphia 76ers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Mar 09 $8 −$3 -38%
Will Trump nominate no one before 2027? Mar 04 $7 −$7 -100%
Will the Orlando Magic win the 2026 NBA Finals? Mar 03 $9 $0 -0%
Will Trump nominate Rick Rieder as the next Fed chair? Mar 02 $5 $0 +0%
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Mar 01 $54 $0 +0%
Will Jon Stewart win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Mar 01 $34 −$2 -4%
Will Donald Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Feb 27 $30 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Xi Jinping out by June 30? SELL No 100¢ $138 1h
Xi Jinping out by June 30? BUY No 100¢ $138 1h
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? SELL Yes 2¢ $31 52d
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? SELL Yes 2¢ $1 52d
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? SELL Yes 2¢ $1 52d
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? SELL Yes 2¢ $0 52d
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? SELL Yes 2¢ $0 52d
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? SELL Yes 2¢ $0 53d
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? SELL Yes 2¢ $1 53d
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? SELL Yes 2¢ $0 53d
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? SELL Yes 2¢ $0 53d
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? SELL Yes 2¢ $0 53d
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? SELL Yes 2¢ $2 53d
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? SELL Yes 2¢ $5 53d
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? SELL Yes 2¢ $2 53d
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? SELL Yes 2¢ $2 53d
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? SELL Yes 2¢ $31 53d
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? SELL Yes 2¢ $5 53d
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? SELL Yes 2¢ $1 53d
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? SELL Yes 2¢ $8 53d
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? BUY Yes 4¢ $15 67d
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? BUY Yes 4¢ $49 67d
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? BUY Yes 4¢ $49 67d
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? BUY Yes 4¢ $32 67d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on April 19? BUY Yes 100¢ $28 71d
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? SELL Yes 4¢ $105 81d
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? BUY Yes 4¢ $93 86d
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? BUY Yes 4¢ $1 86d
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? BUY Yes 4¢ $1 86d
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? BUY Yes 4¢ $6 86d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 73 history records